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Discretionary","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-057","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.000535},{"date":"2026-03-30","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"BUD","issuer":"BUD","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-058","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.032869},{"date":"2026-03-30","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"ARGX","issuer":"ARGX","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-059","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":null},{"date":"2026-03-30","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"MFG","issuer":"MFG","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-060","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2026-03-30","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"ASML","issuer":"ASML","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-061","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.028949},{"date":"2026-03-30","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"GS","issuer":"GS","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-062","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.007042},{"date":"2026-03-30","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"AER","issuer":"AER","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-063","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.027213},{"date":"2026-03-30","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVDA","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-064","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.000458},{"date":"2026-03-30","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"SPOT","issuer":"SPOT","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-065","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.01042},{"date":"2026-03-30","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"TSLA","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-066","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.111281},{"date":"2026-03-31","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"ASML","issuer":"ASML","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009653},{"date":"2026-03-31","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"AZN","issuer":"AZN","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-004","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.010589},{"date":"2026-03-31","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"NVS","issuer":"NVS","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-005","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.008002},{"date":"2026-03-31","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"SAN","issuer":"SAN","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-006","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.030889},{"date":"2026-06-22","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"WMB","issuer":"Option Type: Call Strike price: $75.00 Expires: 2026-08-21","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[250001,500000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001677},{"date":"2026-06-24","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"WMB","issuer":"WMB","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[5000001,25000000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260721-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.047331},{"date":"2026-08-19","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"WMB","issuer":"Option Type: Call Strike price: $75.00 Expires: 2026-08-21","asset_type":"option","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260917-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009594},{"date":"2026-08-20","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"WMB","issuer":"Option Type: Call Strike price: $75.00 Expires: 2026-08-21","asset_type":"option","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"SQA000383-20260917-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028155}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"78% of 369 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.783, 90% Wilson [0.746, 0.816]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.783198,"ci":[0.74592,0.816353],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":369,"lowest_band_share":0.783198,"lowest_band_ci":[0.74592,0.816353],"share_over_50k":0.054201,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":10,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"345 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 2 and trading spans 46% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.528 (identified set [0.128, 0.840]); trade-count HHI 0.003 vs. 95th percentile 0.006 of 369 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 1.000). Normalized sector entropy 0.46 [0.06, 0.88]. Top three issuers (WMB, AAPL, GLW) carry at least 39% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":1.895543,"ci":[1.189786,7.782899],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":369,"issuers":345,"hhi_mid":0.527553,"hhi_bounds":[0.128487,0.840487],"n_eff":1.895543,"hhi_count":0.003107,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.005974,"peer_benchmark_p":1,"sector_entropy":0.458143,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.062072,0.876132],"top3_share_lower":0.388129,"top3":["WMB","AAPL","GLW"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"50% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 2.7% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.6%).","detail":"Batch-day share 4/8, Wilson [0.25, 0.75]; index of dispersion 243.02 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.027 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.076, p = 0.846.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.5,"ci":[0.248642,0.751358],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.846,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":369,"trade_days":8,"batch_share_trades":0.98916,"batch_day_share":0.5,"batch_day_ci":[0.248642,0.751358],"dispersion_index":243.020515,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.0271,"proximity_null_mean":0.075864,"proximity_null_p95":0.135501,"proximity_p":0.846,"proximity_nonroutine":0.0271,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 296 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.27% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0227; 90% KP interval [-0.0569, 0.0116]; t_BMP = -4.59, r-bar = 0.039, t_KP = -1.27, Patell Z = -4.80, Corrado Z = -5.52. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0044, 0.0437].","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.022676,"ci":[-0.05695,0.011598],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.896941,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001715},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.008729},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.022094},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.043697}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":296,"theta":-0.022676,"ci":[-0.05695,0.011598],"p":0.896941,"t_kp":-1.267103,"rbar":0.039279,"se_cs":0.005738,"se_kp":0.020771,"t_cs":-3.951561,"t_bmp":-4.586487,"patell_z":-4.797341,"corrado_z":-5.517509,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.004432,0.043697],"calendar_time":null,"calendar_alpha_ci":[null,null],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":307,"theta":0.001715,"ci":[-0.010951,0.01438],"p":0.359546,"t_kp":0.360004,"rbar":0.039279,"se_cs":0.002085,"se_kp":0.007677,"t_cs":0.822259,"t_bmp":1.32527,"patell_z":1.145115,"corrado_z":1.620382},"21":{"n":296,"theta":-0.022676,"ci":[-0.05695,0.011598],"p":0.896941,"t_kp":-1.267103,"rbar":0.039279,"se_cs":0.005738,"se_kp":0.020771,"t_cs":-3.951561,"t_bmp":-4.586487,"patell_z":-4.797341,"corrado_z":-5.517509},"63":{"n":270,"theta":-0.008729,"ci":[-0.083963,0.066504],"p":0.667203,"t_kp":-0.432679,"rbar":0.039279,"se_cs":0.013137,"se_kp":0.045581,"t_cs":-0.664471,"t_bmp":-1.501276,"patell_z":-1.756057,"corrado_z":-4.415451}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"365 of 369 trades (98.9%) were disclosed late; median lag 116 days.","detail":"Late share 0.989, Wilson [0.976, 0.995]; 90th percentile lag 116 days; longest 119 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.98916,"ci":[0.976075,0.995124],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":369,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":365,"late_from_trade":365,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.98916,"late_ci":[0.976075,0.995124],"median_lag":116,"p90_lag":116,"max_lag":119,"filings":2,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":294,"timely_priced":2,"late_priced_dates":4}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 12% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SLIA, SSHR; jurisdiction sectors Health Care, Human Resource & Employment Services. Dollar share 0.033 (identified set [0.008, 0.147], bootstrap 0.001-0.122); benchmarks S&P 500 0.123, congressional peers 0.114.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.089437,"ci":[-0.122157,-0.0012],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":365,"in_jurisdiction_trades":53,"share":0.033335,"share_bounds":[0.007505,0.14719],"share_ci":[0.000615,0.121572],"benchmark_sp500":0.122772,"benchmark_peers":0.113525,"excess":-0.089437,"excess_ci":[-0.122157,-0.0012],"committees":["SLIA","SSHR"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Health Care","Human Resource & Employment Services"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"44 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 4 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"44 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 4 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":44,"n_other":252,"trade_dates":4,"events":1026}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2026-04-01 (permutation p = 0.006).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2026-04-01","changepoint_LR":12.489886,"changepoint_p":0.006,"tradeday_rate_before":0.666667,"tradeday_rate_after":0.039216}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 11% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0227, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.022676,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.11194,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"46 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 25 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.54, Clopper-Pearson [0.41, 0.67], exact one-sided p = 0.329; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.543478,"ci":[0.412514,0.670069],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.329369,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":46,"hits":25,"hit_rate":0.543478,"ci":[0.412514,0.670069],"priced":341,"share_followed":0.134897}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"11% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 8%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.106; circular-shift null mean 0.079, 95th pct 0.127, p = 0.130. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0017, p = 0.632.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.105691,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.632495,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.086721,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":369,"cotraded_share":0.105691,"null_mean":0.079357,"null_p95":0.127371,"excess_p":0.13,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.086721,"excess_p_wo_top":0.33,"cotraded_car":-0.001741,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.047831,0.04435],"cotraded_car_p":0.632495}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"Only 0 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","detail":"Only 0 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"owner_unknown":369}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.04% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0204 [-0.0532, 0.0939], t_KP = 0.83, over 5 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +1.43% (win rate 60%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.020357,"ci":[-0.053172,0.093886],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.225837,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":5,"share_in_round_trips":0.0271,"priced":5,"realized_mean":0.014331,"realized_win_rate":0.6,"opening_car":0.020357,"ci":[-0.053172,0.093886],"p":0.225837,"openings_priced":5}},{"id":"T16","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 option trades (1% of all reported trades).","detail":"3 option trades (1% of all reported trades).","estimate":{"label":"Option share","value":0.00813,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":3,"option_share":0.00813,"option_car":null,"option_ci":[null,null],"option_p":null,"priced":1}}]}