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Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001236-20260911-009","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.012109},{"date":"2026-08-19","filed":"2026-09-11","ticker":"IJR","issuer":"IJR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001236-20260911-005","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2026-08-19","filed":"2026-09-11","ticker":"AVUV","issuer":"AVUV","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001236-20260911-006","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004874},{"date":"2026-08-19","filed":"2026-09-11","ticker":"WWSYX","issuer":"WWSYX","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001236-20260911-007","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.010791},{"date":"2026-08-20","filed":"2026-09-11","ticker":"JNJ","issuer":"JNJ","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001236-20260911-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009006},{"date":"2026-08-20","filed":"2026-09-11","ticker":"SPYM","issuer":"SPYM","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001236-20260911-004","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.00033},{"date":"2026-08-27","filed":"2026-09-11","ticker":"OTIS","issuer":"OTIS","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001236-20260911-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.003188},{"date":"2026-08-27","filed":"2026-09-11","ticker":"IVV","issuer":"IVV","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001236-20260911-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"93% of 387 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.933, 90% Wilson [0.909, 0.951]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.932817,"ci":[0.908738,0.950886],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":387,"lowest_band_share":0.932817,"lowest_band_ci":[0.908738,0.950886],"share_over_50k":0.002584,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":20,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"135 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 61 and trading spans 82% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.016 (identified set [0.008, 0.078]); trade-count HHI 0.013 vs. 95th percentile 0.006 of 387 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.82 [0.78, 0.88]. Top three issuers (XFIV, TBLL, EFA) carry at least 2% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":61.189466,"ci":[12.798269,126.927126],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":387,"issuers":135,"hhi_mid":0.016343,"hhi_bounds":[0.007879,0.078136],"n_eff":61.189466,"hhi_count":0.012546,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.005844,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.818847,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.77845,0.879919],"top3_share_lower":0.019642,"top3":["XFIV","TBLL","EFA"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"41% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 19% of trades look routine; 5.2% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.9%).","detail":"Batch-day share 44/107, Wilson [0.34, 0.49]; index of dispersion 7.61 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.19 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.052 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.049, p = 0.422.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.411215,"ci":[0.336101,0.490708],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.422,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.827081,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":387,"trade_days":107,"batch_share_trades":0.731266,"batch_day_share":0.411215,"batch_day_ci":[0.336101,0.490708],"dispersion_index":7.610008,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.193798,"proximity_share":0.05168,"proximity_null_mean":0.049479,"proximity_null_p95":0.074935,"proximity_p":0.422,"proximity_nonroutine":0.054487,"proximity_routine":0.04}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 295 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.53% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0053; 90% KP interval [-0.0326, 0.0220]; t_BMP = -0.56, r-bar = 0.045, t_KP = -0.15, Patell Z = -0.57, Corrado Z = -0.61. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0601, 0.0477]. Calendar-time alpha -5.77%/yr (NW t = -0.62, 647 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.005293,"ci":[-0.032556,0.021969],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.731923,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001809},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.001508},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.005716},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.047724},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.057703}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":295,"theta":-0.005293,"ci":[-0.032556,0.021969],"p":0.558295,"t_kp":-0.146776,"rbar":0.044637,"se_cs":0.004297,"se_kp":0.016522,"t_cs":-1.23184,"t_bmp":-0.564339,"patell_z":-0.57263,"corrado_z":-0.605118,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.060079,0.047724],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000229,"se":0.00037,"days":647,"t":-0.618639,"p_one_sided":0.731923},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.00084,0.000382],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":297,"theta":0.001809,"ci":[-0.015284,0.018902],"p":0.421789,"t_kp":0.197491,"rbar":0.044637,"se_cs":0.002686,"se_kp":0.010359,"t_cs":0.673456,"t_bmp":0.761731,"patell_z":0.89075,"corrado_z":0.41433},"21":{"n":295,"theta":-0.005293,"ci":[-0.032556,0.021969],"p":0.558295,"t_kp":-0.146776,"rbar":0.044637,"se_cs":0.004297,"se_kp":0.016522,"t_cs":-1.23184,"t_bmp":-0.564339,"patell_z":-0.57263,"corrado_z":-0.605118},"63":{"n":285,"theta":-0.001508,"ci":[-0.050284,0.047268],"p":0.591398,"t_kp":-0.231358,"rbar":0.044637,"se_cs":0.007812,"se_kp":0.029557,"t_cs":-0.193052,"t_bmp":-0.875377,"patell_z":-0.864029,"corrado_z":-1.928833}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.33, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.02, 0.86]; exact one-sided p = 0.875; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.502. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.333333,"ci":[0.016952,0.86465],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":3,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.333333,"ci":[0.016952,0.86465],"p_exact":0.875,"p_magnitude":0.5019,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2025-03-10","move":-0.026636,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-09","move":0.105019,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":8,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-10","move":-0.043819,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":7,"post_news_trades":8,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"8 of 387 trades (2.1%) were disclosed late; median lag 26 days.","detail":"Late share 0.021, Wilson [0.012, 0.036]; 90th percentile lag 42 days; longest 78 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.020672,"ci":[0.011686,0.036313],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":387,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":8,"late_from_trade":8,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.020672,"late_ci":[0.011686,0.036313],"median_lag":26,"p90_lag":42,"max_lag":78,"filings":32,"late_filings":3,"late_priced":4,"timely_priced":291,"late_priced_dates":2}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 12% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees JCSE, SSAF, SSAP, SSEV, SSRA, SSVA; jurisdiction sectors Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Commodity Chemicals, Construction & Engineering, Construction Materials, Electric Utilities, Environmental & Facilities Services, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Food Distributors, Health Care Facilities, Health Care Services, Packaged Foods & Meats, Timber REITs, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.029 (identified set [0.002, 0.299], bootstrap 0.010-0.064); benchmarks S&P 500 0.119, congressional peers 0.038.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.089921,"ci":[-0.108581,-0.055062],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":167,"in_jurisdiction_trades":5,"share":0.02889,"share_bounds":[0.002026,0.298612],"share_ci":[0.010231,0.06375],"benchmark_sp500":0.118812,"benchmark_peers":0.037627,"excess":-0.089921,"excess_ci":[-0.108581,-0.055062],"committees":["JCSE","SSAF","SSAP","SSEV","SSRA","SSVA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Commodity Chemicals","Construction & Engineering","Construction Materials","Electric Utilities","Environmental & Facilities Services","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Food Distributors","Health Care Facilities","Health Care Services","Packaged Foods & Meats","Timber REITs","Water Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 293 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"2 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 293 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":2,"n_other":293,"events":1878}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2025-01-14 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2025-01-14","changepoint_LR":20.823367,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.072222,"tradeday_rate_after":0.189125}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 34% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0053, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.005293,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.335821,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"39 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 22 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.56, Clopper-Pearson [0.42, 0.70], exact one-sided p = 0.261; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.564103,"ci":[0.420581,0.699989],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.261199,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":39,"hits":22,"hit_rate":0.564103,"ci":[0.420581,0.699989],"priced":304,"share_followed":0.128289}},{"id":"T13","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"16% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 11%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.155; circular-shift null mean 0.109, 95th pct 0.143, p = 0.010. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0162, p = 0.615.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.155039,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.615219,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.152455,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":387,"cotraded_share":0.155039,"null_mean":0.108579,"null_p95":0.142636,"excess_p":0.01,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.152455,"excess_p_wo_top":0.02,"cotraded_car":-0.016248,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.063743,0.031247],"cotraded_car_p":0.615219}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"Only 0 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","detail":"Only 0 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"owner_unknown":387}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"54 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -1.92% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0192 [-0.0744, 0.0359], t_KP = -0.53, over 38 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -1.55% (win rate 42%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.019222,"ci":[-0.074359,0.035914],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.70049,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":54,"share_in_round_trips":0.27907,"priced":36,"realized_mean":-0.01548,"realized_win_rate":0.416667,"opening_car":-0.019222,"ci":[-0.074359,0.035914],"p":0.70049,"openings_priced":38}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2025-03-10","event_date":"2025-03-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.66,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-09","event_date":"2025-04-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":10.5,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-10","event_date":"2025-04-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.38,"trade":"7 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}