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Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020002-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20020002.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.067905},{"date":"2021-11-09","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":null,"issuer":"Roblox Corporation Class A","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,15001],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020002-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20020002.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-11-09","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":"RBLX","issuer":"RBLX","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001299-20211213-005","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.067905},{"date":"2021-11-12","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":"PTON","issuer":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020002-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20020002.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026976},{"date":"2021-11-12","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":"PTON","issuer":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020002-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20020002.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026976},{"date":"2021-11-12","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":"PTON","issuer":"PTON","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001299-20211213-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026976},{"date":"2021-11-12","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":"PTON","issuer":"PTON","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001299-20211213-004","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026976},{"date":"2021-11-15","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":"PTON","issuer":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020002-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20020002.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.053353},{"date":"2021-11-15","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":"PTON","issuer":"PTON","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001299-20211213-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.053353},{"date":"2021-11-19","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":"RBLX","issuer":"Roblox Corporation Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020002-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20020002.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.018104},{"date":"2021-11-19","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":"RBLX","issuer":"RBLX","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001299-20211213-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.018104},{"date":"2023-06-09","filed":"2023-06-21","ticker":"PTON","issuer":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023168-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023168.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.017523},{"date":"2023-06-09","filed":"2023-06-21","ticker":"PTON","issuer":"PTON","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001299-20230621-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.017523},{"date":"2024-08-08","filed":"2024-08-12","ticker":"YUM","issuer":"Yum! Brands, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025626-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025626.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.017201},{"date":"2024-08-08","filed":"2024-08-12","ticker":"YUM","issuer":"YUM","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001299-20240812-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.017201},{"date":"2025-02-18","filed":"2025-03-10","ticker":"YUM","issuer":"Company: Yum (Louisville, KY) Description: Food","asset_type":"other","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001299-20250310-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.065243},{"date":"2026-04-15","filed":"2026-04-20","ticker":"SBUX","issuer":"SBUX","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001299-20260420-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001477},{"date":"2026-06-05","filed":"2026-06-07","ticker":"PTON","issuer":"PTON","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQB001299-20260607-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.038404}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"91% of 80 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.912, 90% Wilson [0.846, 0.952]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.9125,"ci":[0.846147,0.951864],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":80,"lowest_band_share":0.9125,"lowest_band_ci":[0.846147,0.951864],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":13,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"8 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 4 and trading spans 42% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.224 (identified set [0.128, 0.705]); trade-count HHI 0.185 vs. 95th percentile 0.017 of 80 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.42 [0.37, 0.45]. Top three issuers (RBLX, PTON, KR) carry at least 22% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":4.473917,"ci":[1.418644,7.802987],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":80,"issuers":8,"hhi_mid":0.223518,"hhi_bounds":[0.128156,0.704899],"n_eff":4.473917,"hhi_count":0.185,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.016875,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.421319,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.372294,0.452897],"top3_share_lower":0.216541,"top3":["RBLX","PTON","KR"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 4% of trades look routine; 16.2% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.6%).","detail":"Batch-day share 2/39, Wilson [0.02, 0.14]; index of dispersion 2.72 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.04 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.163 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.046, p = 0.022.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.051282,"ci":[0.017118,0.143665],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.022,"p_holm":0.132,"q_bh":0.309833,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":80,"trade_days":39,"batch_share_trades":0.1,"batch_day_share":0.051282,"batch_day_ci":[0.017118,0.143665],"dispersion_index":2.716902,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.0375,"proximity_share":0.1625,"proximity_null_mean":0.046092,"proximity_null_p95":0.125,"proximity_p":0.022,"proximity_nonroutine":0.168831,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 64 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.77% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0177; 90% KP interval [-0.3630, 0.3276]; t_BMP = -0.12, r-bar = 0.224, t_KP = -0.03, Patell Z = -0.13, Corrado Z = -0.04. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.2988, 0.2653]. Calendar-time alpha 56.22%/yr (NW t = 1.34, 414 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.0177,"ci":[-0.362987,0.327587],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.511083,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.003361},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.071677},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.020427},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.012381},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.265314},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.562235}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":64,"theta":-0.0177,"ci":[-0.362987,0.327587],"p":0.511083,"t_kp":-0.027896,"rbar":0.224034,"se_cs":0.046865,"se_kp":0.206833,"t_cs":-0.377685,"t_bmp":-0.123114,"patell_z":-0.134732,"corrado_z":-0.035468,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.29876,0.265314],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.002231,"se":0.001659,"days":414,"t":1.344728,"p_one_sided":0.089357},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000539,0.005001],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":64,"theta":0.003361,"ci":[-0.111528,0.11825],"p":0.467347,"t_kp":0.08227,"rbar":0.224034,"se_cs":0.015594,"se_kp":0.06882,"t_cs":0.215508,"t_bmp":0.363087,"patell_z":0.412033,"corrado_z":-0.98137},"21":{"n":64,"theta":-0.0177,"ci":[-0.362987,0.327587],"p":0.511083,"t_kp":-0.027896,"rbar":0.224034,"se_cs":0.046865,"se_kp":0.206833,"t_cs":-0.377685,"t_bmp":-0.123114,"patell_z":-0.134732,"corrado_z":-0.035468},"63":{"n":64,"theta":-0.071677,"ci":[-0.723104,0.57975],"p":0.553788,"t_kp":-0.135786,"rbar":0.224034,"se_cs":0.088417,"se_kp":0.390215,"t_cs":-0.810673,"t_bmp":-0.599272,"patell_z":-0.62529,"corrado_z":-1.067272}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,17.780982],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,17.780982],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,37.205825],"absence_days":5,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 81 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 24 days. Another 4 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.032]; 90th percentile lag 43 days; longest 115 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.032322],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.049383,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":81,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":4,"excused_by_notification":4,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.032322],"median_lag":24,"p90_lag":43,"max_lag":115,"filings":29,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":64,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 38% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SSAS, SSBK, SSHR, SSVA; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Financials, Health Care, Health Care Facilities, Health Care Services, Human Resource & Employment Services, Real Estate. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.360, congressional peers 0.381.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.38072,"ci":[-0.38072,-0.38072],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":72,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0.360396,"benchmark_peers":0.38072,"excess":-0.38072,"excess_ci":[-0.38072,-0.38072],"committees":["SSAS","SSBK","SSHR","SSVA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Financials","Health Care","Health Care Facilities","Health Care Services","Human Resource & Employment Services","Real Estate"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 64 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 64 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":64,"events":2788}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2021-11-22 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2021-11-22","changepoint_LR":25.072774,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.029565,"tradeday_rate_after":0.004219}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 17% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0177, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.0177,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.171642,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 13 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.72, Clopper-Pearson [0.50, 0.88], exact one-sided p = 0.048; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.722222,"ci":[0.502172,0.883574],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.048126,"p_holm":0.240631,"q_bh":0.721154,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"hits":13,"hit_rate":0.722222,"ci":[0.502172,0.883574],"priced":64,"share_followed":0.28125}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"12% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 8%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.125; circular-shift null mean 0.083, 95th pct 0.175, p = 0.220. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0188, p = 0.580.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.125,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.579632,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.125,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":80,"cotraded_share":0.125,"null_mean":0.082576,"null_p95":0.175,"excess_p":0.22,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.125,"excess_p_wo_top":0.15,"cotraded_car":-0.018816,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.103942,0.06631],"cotraded_car_p":0.579632}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":28}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"26 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -17.22% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.1722 [-0.6495, 0.3052], t_KP = -0.19, over 16 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +6.07% (win rate 83%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.172154,"ci":[-0.649505,0.305197],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.573695,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":26,"share_in_round_trips":0.65,"priced":24,"realized_mean":0.060708,"realized_win_rate":0.833333,"opening_car":-0.172154,"ci":[-0.649505,0.305197],"p":0.573695,"openings_priced":16}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}