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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.674699,"ci":[0.585764,0.752604],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":83,"lowest_band_share":0.674699,"lowest_band_ci":[0.585764,0.752604],"share_over_50k":0.036145,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":1,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"79 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 12 and trading spans 73% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.081 (identified set [0.023, 0.278]); trade-count HHI 0.013 vs. 95th percentile 0.017 of 83 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.844). Normalized sector entropy 0.73 [0.57, 0.88]. Top three issuers (IBIT, ICAPITAL, AAPL) carry at least 13% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":12.37827,"ci":[3.595344,43.791483],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":83,"issuers":79,"hhi_mid":0.080787,"hhi_bounds":[0.022835,0.278137],"n_eff":12.37827,"hhi_count":0.0135,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.016984,"peer_benchmark_p":0.844,"sector_entropy":0.73255,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.569906,0.875992],"top3_share_lower":0.127382,"top3":["IBIT","ICAPITAL","AAPL"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"22% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 1.2% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.6%).","detail":"Batch-day share 2/9, Wilson [0.08, 0.50]; index of dispersion 42.55 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.012 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.056, p = 0.912.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.222222,"ci":[0.076495,0.496357],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.912,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":83,"trade_days":9,"batch_share_trades":0.915663,"batch_day_share":0.222222,"batch_day_ci":[0.076495,0.496357],"dispersion_index":42.553259,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.012048,"proximity_null_mean":0.055557,"proximity_null_p95":0.13253,"proximity_p":0.912,"proximity_nonroutine":0.012048,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 76 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.96% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0296; 90% KP interval [-0.0203, 0.0796]; t_BMP = 2.11, r-bar = 0.066, t_KP = 0.84, Patell Z = 2.25, Corrado Z = 1.01. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0310, 0.0629]. Calendar-time alpha -19.47%/yr (NW t = -0.37, 64 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.029643,"ci":[-0.020288,0.079574],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.645277,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.018221},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.00286},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.001303},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.062882},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.194713}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":76,"theta":0.029643,"ci":[-0.020288,0.079574],"p":0.20308,"t_kp":0.835374,"rbar":0.066249,"se_cs":0.011858,"se_kp":0.029981,"t_cs":2.49977,"t_bmp":2.112056,"patell_z":2.246288,"corrado_z":1.013642,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.030971,0.062882],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000773,"se":0.002074,"days":64,"t":-0.3726,"p_one_sided":0.645277},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.004226,0.002681],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":76,"theta":0.018221,"ci":[-0.000186,0.036628],"p":0.058106,"t_kp":1.589247,"rbar":0.066249,"se_cs":0.004372,"se_kp":0.011053,"t_cs":4.168059,"t_bmp":4.018054,"patell_z":2.987074,"corrado_z":3.807526},"21":{"n":76,"theta":0.029643,"ci":[-0.020288,0.079574],"p":0.20308,"t_kp":0.835374,"rbar":0.066249,"se_cs":0.011858,"se_kp":0.029981,"t_cs":2.49977,"t_bmp":2.112056,"patell_z":2.246288,"corrado_z":1.013642},"63":{"n":76,"theta":-0.00286,"ci":[-0.076256,0.070536],"p":0.555403,"t_kp":-0.139797,"rbar":0.066249,"se_cs":0.017431,"se_kp":0.04407,"t_cs":-0.164071,"t_bmp":-0.353446,"patell_z":-0.301483,"corrado_z":-1.756922}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"172 of 265 trades (64.9%) were disclosed late; median lag 131 days. Another 5 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.649, Wilson [0.600, 0.696]; 90th percentile lag 201 days; longest 272 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.649057,"ci":[0.599547,0.695554],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.667925,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":265,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":172,"late_from_trade":177,"excused_by_notification":5,"late_share":0.649057,"late_ci":[0.599547,0.695554],"median_lag":131,"p90_lag":201,"max_lag":272,"filings":12,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":75,"timely_priced":1,"late_priced_dates":3}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"8% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 15% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSFA, HSHM, HSSY; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Application Software, Biotechnology, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors, Systems Software. Dollar share 0.081 (identified set [0.024, 0.228], bootstrap 0.000-0.174); benchmarks S&P 500 0.123, congressional peers 0.148.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.066826,"ci":[-0.148034,0.026379],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":48,"in_jurisdiction_trades":3,"share":0.081208,"share_bounds":[0.02426,0.227602],"share_ci":[0,0.174413],"benchmark_sp500":0.122772,"benchmark_peers":0.148034,"excess":-0.066826,"excess_ci":[-0.148034,0.026379],"committees":["HSFA","HSHM","HSSY"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Application Software","Biotechnology","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors","Systems Software"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 73 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 73 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"n_other":73,"events":3327}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2025-01-07 (permutation p = 0.294).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2025-01-07","changepoint_LR":5.20138,"changepoint_p":0.294,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.02649}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 96% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0296, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.029643,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.955224,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.40, Clopper-Pearson [0.08, 0.81], exact one-sided p = 0.812; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.4,"ci":[0.07644,0.810745],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.8125,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":5,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.4,"ci":[0.07644,0.810745],"priced":76,"share_followed":0.065789}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"14% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 12%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.145; circular-shift null mean 0.124, 95th pct 0.220, p = 0.390. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0395, p = 0.128.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.144578,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.128315,"p_holm":0.76989,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.144578,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":83,"cotraded_share":0.144578,"null_mean":0.123646,"null_p95":0.220482,"excess_p":0.39,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.144578,"excess_p_wo_top":0.44,"cotraded_car":0.039469,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.014941,0.093879],"cotraded_car_p":0.128315}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +2.96% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0296 [-0.0203, 0.0796], t_KP = 0.84.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.029643,"ci":[-0.020288,0.079574],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.20308,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":83,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.029643,"family_ci":[-0.020288,0.079574],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}