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08/01/27","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"S32550a8f-923e-416f-84f3-e19ab4f148b1-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/32550a8f-923e-416f-84f3-e19ab4f148b1/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-01-06","filed":"2022-02-17","ticker":"OTIS","issuer":"OTIS","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20220217-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.014723},{"date":"2022-01-06","filed":"2022-02-17","ticker":"HSIC","issuer":"HSIC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20220217-004","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.009368},{"date":"2022-01-06","filed":"2022-02-17","ticker":"CARR","issuer":"CARR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20220217-005","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.018579},{"date":"2022-01-06","filed":"2022-02-17","ticker":"WEX","issuer":"WEX","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20220217-006","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-01-06","filed":"2022-02-17","ticker":"MMM","issuer":"MMM","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20220217-007","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.020567},{"date":"2022-01-06","filed":"2022-02-17","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVDA","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20220217-008","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.05492},{"date":"2022-01-06","filed":"2022-02-17","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"AMZN","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20220217-009","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001847},{"date":"2022-01-06","filed":"2022-02-17","ticker":"VFC","issuer":"VFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20220217-010","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.021402},{"date":"2022-01-06","filed":"2022-02-17","ticker":"LIN","issuer":"LIN","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20220217-011","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.005829},{"date":"2022-01-21","filed":"2022-02-17","ticker":"HSY","issuer":"HSY","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20220217-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.024663},{"date":"2022-01-21","filed":"2022-02-17","ticker":"UL","issuer":"UL","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20220217-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.044244},{"date":"2022-12-20","filed":"2023-01-10","ticker":"AKAM","issuer":"AKAM","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20230110-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.000439},{"date":"2024-08-05","filed":"2024-09-13","ticker":"GL","issuer":"GL","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQC001035-20240913-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.030795}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"81% of 345 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.812, 90% Wilson [0.775, 0.844]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.811594,"ci":[0.774591,0.843748],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":345,"lowest_band_share":0.811594,"lowest_band_ci":[0.774591,0.843748],"share_over_50k":0.014493,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":7,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"217 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 1 and trading spans 12% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.851 (identified set [0.591, 0.948]); trade-count HHI 0.007 vs. 95th percentile 0.006 of 345 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.004). Normalized sector entropy 0.12 [0.05, 0.90]. Top three issuers (MMM, RHT, SYK) carry at least 78% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":1.175648,"ci":[1.055288,1.693345],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":345,"issuers":217,"hhi_mid":0.850595,"hhi_bounds":[0.590547,0.947609],"n_eff":1.175648,"hhi_count":0.006931,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.006229,"peer_benchmark_p":0.004,"sector_entropy":0.116807,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.045209,0.900791],"top3_share_lower":0.778606,"top3":["MMM","RHT","SYK"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"28% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 1% of trades look routine; 2.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.0%).","detail":"Batch-day share 23/81, Wilson [0.21, 0.37]; index of dispersion 22.96 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.01 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.020 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.040, p = 0.896.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.283951,"ci":[0.209567,0.372301],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.896,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":345,"trade_days":81,"batch_share_trades":0.762319,"batch_day_share":0.283951,"batch_day_ci":[0.209567,0.372301],"dispersion_index":22.963928,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.008696,"proximity_share":0.02029,"proximity_null_mean":0.039581,"proximity_null_p95":0.072754,"proximity_p":0.896,"proximity_nonroutine":0.020468,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 142 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.84% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0084; 90% KP interval [-0.0206, 0.0037]; t_BMP = -1.85, r-bar = 0.014, t_KP = -1.08, Patell Z = -2.05, Corrado Z = -1.99. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0205, -0.0164]. Calendar-time alpha -21.21%/yr (NW t = -2.61, 584 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.008446,"ci":[-0.020613,0.003721],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.995471,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.995471,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.003985},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.010579},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.010592},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.016438},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.212093}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":142,"theta":-0.008446,"ci":[-0.020613,0.003721],"p":0.85861,"t_kp":-1.078214,"rbar":0.013578,"se_cs":0.004275,"se_kp":0.007348,"t_cs":-1.975576,"t_bmp":-1.853326,"patell_z":-2.050092,"corrado_z":-1.989394,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.020492,-0.016438],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000842,"se":0.000322,"days":584,"t":-2.609884,"p_one_sided":0.995471},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001376,-0.000308],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":143,"theta":-0.003985,"ci":[-0.009503,0.001532],"p":0.848946,"t_kp":-1.035688,"rbar":0.013578,"se_cs":0.001934,"se_kp":0.003332,"t_cs":-2.060435,"t_bmp":-1.784371,"patell_z":-1.725494,"corrado_z":-1.336927},"21":{"n":142,"theta":-0.008446,"ci":[-0.020613,0.003721],"p":0.85861,"t_kp":-1.078214,"rbar":0.013578,"se_cs":0.004275,"se_kp":0.007348,"t_cs":-1.975576,"t_bmp":-1.853326,"patell_z":-2.050092,"corrado_z":-1.989394},"63":{"n":142,"theta":-0.010579,"ci":[-0.033567,0.012408],"p":0.764424,"t_kp":-0.722552,"rbar":0.013578,"se_cs":0.008077,"se_kp":0.013883,"t_cs":-1.309833,"t_bmp":-1.241984,"patell_z":-1.268738,"corrado_z":-1.248095}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 7 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 4 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.57, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.23, 0.87]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.441. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.571429,"ci":[0.225322,0.871244],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":7,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.571429,"ci":[0.225322,0.871244],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.4407,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2014-02-03","move":-0.022505,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":11,"post_news_trades":9,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2014-12-18","move":0.024729,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-02","move":-0.02177,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-05","move":-0.041822,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-06","move":0.019702,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-12-26","move":0.050525,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":7,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-08-08","move":0.023117,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 of 400 trades (0.8%) were disclosed late; median lag 15 days.","detail":"Late share 0.007, Wilson [0.003, 0.019]; 90th percentile lag 35 days; longest 440 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.0075,"ci":[0.003001,0.018616],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":400,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":3,"late_from_trade":3,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.0075,"late_ci":[0.003001,0.018616],"median_lag":15,"p90_lag":35.1,"max_lag":440,"filings":59,"late_filings":3,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":142,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 18% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SLIN, SSAP, SSHR; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Health Care, Human Resource & Employment Services, Systems Software. Dollar share 0.010 (identified set [0.003, 0.036], bootstrap 0.002-0.192); benchmarks S&P 500 0.162, congressional peers 0.177.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.167078,"ci":[-0.175569,0.014718],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":246,"in_jurisdiction_trades":45,"share":0.010213,"share_bounds":[0.003264,0.036308],"share_ci":[0.001722,0.192009],"benchmark_sp500":0.162376,"benchmark_peers":0.177291,"excess":-0.167078,"excess_ci":[-0.175569,0.014718],"committees":["SLIN","SSAP","SSHR"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Health Care","Human Resource & Employment Services","Systems Software"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"20 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +0.02% in the trade's favour, +1.01% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = 0.0002; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0101 [-0.0049, 0.0280], p = 0.158; mean pre-trade drift psi = 0.0036.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.010088,"ci":[-0.004913,0.027963],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.158,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.707111,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"fits","value":0.01812},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.007974},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.01147},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":20,"n_other":122,"theta9":0.000221,"diff":0.010088,"ci":[-0.004913,0.027963],"p":0.158,"pre_trade_drift":0.003619,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":1050,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":560,"committee_markup":196,"committee_reported":196,"became_law":98},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.13986,"trade_dates":12,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2014-04-24 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2014-04-24","changepoint_LR":175.759347,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.59375,"tradeday_rate_after":0.016027}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 29% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0084, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.008446,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.291045,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"16 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 10 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.62, Clopper-Pearson [0.39, 0.82], exact one-sided p = 0.227; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.625,"ci":[0.391012,0.822234],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.227249,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":16,"hits":10,"hit_rate":0.625,"ci":[0.391012,0.822234],"priced":143,"share_followed":0.111888}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"6% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 8%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.061; circular-shift null mean 0.077, 95th pct 0.108, p = 0.840. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0109, p = 0.287.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.06087,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.286946,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.049275,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":345,"cotraded_share":0.06087,"null_mean":0.0775,"null_p95":0.107536,"excess_p":0.84,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.049275,"excess_p_wo_top":0.79,"cotraded_car":0.01089,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.017121,0.038902],"cotraded_car_p":0.286946}},{"id":"T14","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -0.80% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0080 [-0.0195, 0.0036], t_KP = -1.11.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.007957,"ci":[-0.019525,0.003611],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.865129,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.948315,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":332,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":13,"family_car":-0.007957,"family_ci":[-0.019525,0.003611],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"14 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -3.38% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0338 [-0.0972, 0.0296], t_KP = -1.36, over 5 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -2.00% (win rate 50%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.033806,"ci":[-0.097191,0.029578],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.876648,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":14,"share_in_round_trips":0.081159,"priced":6,"realized_mean":-0.019999,"realized_win_rate":0.5,"opening_car":-0.033806,"ci":[-0.097191,0.029578],"p":0.876648,"openings_priced":5}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2014-02-03","event_date":"2014-02-03","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.25,"trade":"11 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2014-12-18","event_date":"2014-12-18","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.47,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-02","event_date":"2018-02-02","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.18,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-05","event_date":"2018-02-05","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.18,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-06","event_date":"2018-02-06","direction":"sell","move_pct":1.97,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-12-26","event_date":"2018-12-26","direction":"sell","move_pct":5.05,"trade":"7 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-08-08","event_date":"2024-08-08","direction":"sell","move_pct":2.31,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}