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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.948998,"ci":[0.931233,0.962359],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":549,"lowest_band_share":0.948998,"lowest_band_ci":[0.931233,0.962359],"share_over_50k":0.003643,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":40,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"183 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 38 and trading spans 80% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.026 (identified set [0.007, 0.188]); trade-count HHI 0.013 vs. 95th percentile 0.005 of 549 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.80 [0.71, 0.84]. Top three issuers (UBSI, WFC, MSFT) carry at least 4% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":37.897202,"ci":[5.316051,139.676239],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":549,"issuers":183,"hhi_mid":0.026387,"hhi_bounds":[0.007159,0.18811],"n_eff":37.897202,"hhi_count":0.013334,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.004995,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.802604,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.706965,0.838102],"top3_share_lower":0.044469,"top3":["UBSI","WFC","MSFT"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"23% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 17% of trades look routine; 7.3% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.4%).","detail":"Batch-day share 39/172, Wilson [0.18, 0.28]; index of dispersion 20.19 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.17 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.073 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.064, p = 0.254.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.226744,"ci":[0.178696,0.283255],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.254,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.677926,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":549,"trade_days":172,"batch_share_trades":0.699454,"batch_day_share":0.226744,"batch_day_ci":[0.178696,0.283255],"dispersion_index":20.18842,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.165756,"proximity_share":0.07286,"proximity_null_mean":0.064136,"proximity_null_p95":0.100364,"proximity_p":0.254,"proximity_nonroutine":0.067686,"proximity_routine":0.098901}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 477 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.07% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0007; 90% KP interval [-0.0302, 0.0289]; t_BMP = -0.03, r-bar = 0.066, t_KP = -0.01, Patell Z = -0.04, Corrado Z = 0.49. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0632, 0.0448]. Calendar-time alpha -4.70%/yr (NW t = -0.47, 1649 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.000675,"ci":[-0.03022,0.02887],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.682364,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.00368},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000839},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000478},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.010803},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.044842},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.046952}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":477,"theta":-0.000675,"ci":[-0.03022,0.02887],"p":0.502294,"t_kp":-0.005754,"rbar":0.066014,"se_cs":0.003043,"se_kp":0.017927,"t_cs":-0.221947,"t_bmp":-0.033899,"patell_z":-0.036731,"corrado_z":0.492024,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.063192,0.044842],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000186,"se":0.000393,"days":1649,"t":-0.474318,"p_one_sided":0.682364},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000834,0.000461],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":477,"theta":-0.00368,"ci":[-0.018523,0.011164],"p":0.670664,"t_kp":-0.442026,"rbar":0.066014,"se_cs":0.001529,"se_kp":0.009007,"t_cs":-2.40715,"t_bmp":-2.604377,"patell_z":-2.848662,"corrado_z":-2.428715},"21":{"n":477,"theta":-0.000675,"ci":[-0.03022,0.02887],"p":0.502294,"t_kp":-0.005754,"rbar":0.066014,"se_cs":0.003043,"se_kp":0.017927,"t_cs":-0.221947,"t_bmp":-0.033899,"patell_z":-0.036731,"corrado_z":0.492024},"63":{"n":474,"theta":-0.000839,"ci":[-0.052721,0.051042],"p":0.523686,"t_kp":-0.059438,"rbar":0.066014,"se_cs":0.005359,"se_kp":0.03148,"t_cs":-0.156567,"t_bmp":-0.349131,"patell_z":-0.357821,"corrado_z":-0.089633}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 10 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 5 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.22, 0.78]; exact one-sided p = 0.623; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.537. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.222441,0.777559],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.623047,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":10,"hits":5,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.222441,0.777559],"p_exact":0.623047,"p_magnitude":0.5369,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2018-02-02","move":-0.02177,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":6,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-04-06","move":-0.022286,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":41,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-10-24","move":-0.030298,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-12-04","move":-0.032402,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-04","move":0.042033,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-05","move":-0.033242,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-09","move":-0.078094,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-10","move":0.051745,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-07-24","move":-0.022662,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-12-18","move":-0.029803,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"13 of 583 trades (2.2%) were disclosed late; median lag 26 days.","detail":"Late share 0.022, Wilson [0.014, 0.035]; 90th percentile lag 39 days; longest 589 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.022298,"ci":[0.01423,0.03478],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":583,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":13,"late_from_trade":13,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.022298,"late_ci":[0.01423,0.03478],"median_lag":26,"p90_lag":39,"max_lag":589,"filings":100,"late_filings":8,"late_priced":4,"timely_priced":473,"late_priced_dates":1}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"14% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 22% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SSAP, SSCM, SSEV, SSRA; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Air Freight & Logistics, Automobile Manufacturers, Cargo Ground Transportation, Commodity Chemicals, Communication Services, Construction & Engineering, Construction Materials, Electric Utilities, Environmental & Facilities Services, Interactive Media & Services, Passenger Airlines, Rail Transportation, Semiconductors, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.136 (identified set [0.016, 0.591], bootstrap 0.101-0.177); benchmarks S&P 500 0.186, congressional peers 0.217.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.08122,"ci":[-0.116709,-0.040701],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":474,"in_jurisdiction_trades":74,"share":0.136258,"share_bounds":[0.016186,0.590551],"share_ci":[0.10077,0.176778],"benchmark_sp500":0.186139,"benchmark_peers":0.217478,"excess":-0.08122,"excess_ci":[-0.116709,-0.040701],"committees":["SSAP","SSCM","SSEV","SSRA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Air Freight & Logistics","Automobile Manufacturers","Cargo Ground Transportation","Commodity Chemicals","Communication Services","Construction & Engineering","Construction Materials","Electric Utilities","Environmental & Facilities Services","Interactive Media & Services","Passenger Airlines","Rail Transportation","Semiconductors","Water Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"66 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +1.51% in the trade's favour, +1.83% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = 0.0151; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0183 [0.0011, 0.0374], p = 0.052; mean pre-trade drift psi = -0.0009.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.018342,"ci":[0.001098,0.03744],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.052,"p_holm":0.468,"q_bh":0.481,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.016024},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.017732},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.018886},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":66,"n_other":411,"theta9":0.015129,"diff":0.018342,"ci":[0.001098,0.03744],"p":0.052,"pre_trade_drift":-0.000938,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":2643,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":1120,"committee_markup":692,"committee_reported":633,"became_law":198},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.138365,"trade_dates":45,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2023-06-07 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2023-06-07","changepoint_LR":27.514083,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.043774,"tradeday_rate_after":0.099387}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 54% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0007, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.000675,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.537313,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"76 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 33 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.43, Clopper-Pearson [0.34, 0.53], exact one-sided p = 0.897; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.434211,"ci":[0.337398,0.534984],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.896632,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":76,"hits":33,"hit_rate":0.434211,"ci":[0.337398,0.534984],"priced":477,"share_followed":0.159329}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 17%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.166; circular-shift null mean 0.169, 95th pct 0.199, p = 0.590. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0014, p = 0.450.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.165756,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.449959,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.154827,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":549,"cotraded_share":0.165756,"null_mean":0.169178,"null_p95":0.199089,"excess_p":0.59,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.154827,"excess_p_wo_top":0.41,"cotraded_car":-0.001444,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.027911,0.025024],"cotraded_car_p":0.449959}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"92% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -0.39% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0039 [-0.0293, 0.0214], t_KP = -0.11; family minus self -0.0147 [-0.0617, 0.0388], p = 0.857.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.003913,"ci":[-0.029266,0.02144],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.544124,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":307,"family_share":0.924699,"owner_unknown":217,"family_car":-0.003913,"family_ci":[-0.029266,0.02144],"diff":-0.014715,"diff_ci":[-0.061717,0.038837],"diff_p":0.856566}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"29 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.93% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0293 [0.0019, 0.0566], t_KP = 1.65, over 25 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +4.46% (win rate 56%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.029252,"ci":[0.001907,0.056596],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.05579,"p_holm":0.468,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":29,"share_in_round_trips":0.105647,"priced":25,"realized_mean":0.044639,"realized_win_rate":0.56,"opening_car":0.029252,"ci":[0.001907,0.056596],"p":0.05579,"openings_priced":25}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-02","event_date":"2018-02-02","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.18,"trade":"6 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-04-06","event_date":"2018-04-06","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.23,"trade":"41 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-10-24","event_date":"2018-10-24","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.03,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-12-04","event_date":"2018-12-04","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.24,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-04","event_date":"2020-03-04","direction":"buy","move_pct":4.2,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-05","event_date":"2020-03-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.32,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-09","event_date":"2020-03-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":-7.81,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-10","event_date":"2020-03-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.17,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-07-24","event_date":"2024-07-24","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.27,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-12-18","event_date":"2024-12-18","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.98,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}