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New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20019168-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019168.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.002364},{"date":"2020-06-25","filed":"2021-07-27","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20019168-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019168.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010481},{"date":"2020-07-10","filed":"2020-07-16","ticker":"LUV","issuer":"Southwest Airlines Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016973-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016973.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026379},{"date":"2020-07-14","filed":"2020-07-16","ticker":"AAL","issuer":"American Airlines Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016973-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016973.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002575},{"date":"2020-07-14","filed":"2020-07-16","ticker":"LUV","issuer":"Southwest Airlines Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016973-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016973.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004376},{"date":"2020-07-16","filed":"2021-07-27","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20019168-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019168.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.008394},{"date":"2020-08-04","filed":"2020-08-06","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017104-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017104.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.057111},{"date":"2020-09-21","filed":"2020-10-08","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017492-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017492.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.016054},{"date":"2020-09-25","filed":"2020-10-08","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017492-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017492.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.008632},{"date":"2020-10-05","filed":"2020-10-08","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017492-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017492.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.012872},{"date":"2020-11-16","filed":"2020-12-02","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017786-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017786.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.000713},{"date":"2021-01-04","filed":"2021-01-04","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017966-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20017966.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.00116},{"date":"2021-02-01","filed":"2021-02-18","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018237-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018237.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.003329},{"date":"2021-02-17","filed":"2021-02-18","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018237-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018237.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.01662},{"date":"2021-03-15","filed":"2021-04-14","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018576-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018576.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.008149},{"date":"2021-03-31","filed":"2021-04-14","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018576-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018576.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.007458},{"date":"2021-04-09","filed":"2021-04-14","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018576-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018576.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.011945},{"date":"2021-04-13","filed":"2021-04-14","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018576-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018576.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.004809},{"date":"2021-04-14","filed":"2021-04-14","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018576-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018576.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.008126},{"date":"2021-05-21","filed":"2021-06-14","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018921-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018921.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.007412},{"date":"2021-06-14","filed":"2021-06-14","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018921-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018921.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.021858},{"date":"2021-06-18","filed":"2021-07-29","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019181-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019181.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010297},{"date":"2021-06-25","filed":"2021-07-29","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019181-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019181.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.015288},{"date":"2021-07-16","filed":"2021-07-29","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019181-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019181.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.017105},{"date":"2024-03-28","filed":"2024-03-28","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024754-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024754.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001746},{"date":"2024-07-15","filed":"2024-07-15","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025475-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025475.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.008492}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"87% of 86 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.872, 90% Wilson [0.801, 0.920]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.872093,"ci":[0.801322,0.920166],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":86,"lowest_band_share":0.872093,"lowest_band_ci":[0.801322,0.920166],"share_over_50k":0.023256,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":10,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"22 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 5 and trading spans 51% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.219 (identified set [0.058, 0.663]); trade-count HHI 0.138 vs. 95th percentile 0.016 of 86 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.51 [0.37, 0.62]. Top three issuers (BRK.B, T, DIA) carry at least 20% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":4.55847,"ci":[1.508285,17.30619],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":86,"issuers":22,"hhi_mid":0.219372,"hhi_bounds":[0.057783,0.663005],"n_eff":4.55847,"hhi_count":0.138183,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.016225,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.509898,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.371506,0.621918],"top3_share_lower":0.203195,"top3":["BRK.B","T","DIA"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 6% of trades look routine; 11.6% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.5%).","detail":"Batch-day share 4/58, Wilson [0.03, 0.15]; index of dispersion 2.22 (chi-square p = 2.04e-252); routine share 0.06 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.116 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.055, p = 0.062.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.068966,"ci":[0.031336,0.145016],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.062,"p_holm":0.496,"q_bh":0.403,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":86,"trade_days":58,"batch_share_trades":0.209302,"batch_day_share":0.068966,"batch_day_ci":[0.031336,0.145016],"dispersion_index":2.224843,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.05814,"proximity_share":0.116279,"proximity_null_mean":0.055017,"proximity_null_p95":0.116279,"proximity_p":0.062,"proximity_nonroutine":0.123457,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 72 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.24% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0124; 90% KP interval [-0.1751, 0.1998]; t_BMP = 0.48, r-bar = 0.521, t_KP = 0.05, Patell Z = 0.68, Corrado Z = 0.31. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0604, 0.0440]. Calendar-time alpha 20.24%/yr (NW t = 1.14, 672 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.012381,"ci":[-0.175073,0.199835],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.478485,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000656},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.010988},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.012543},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.016592},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.044033},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.20238}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":72,"theta":0.012381,"ci":[-0.175073,0.199835],"p":0.478485,"t_kp":0.054146,"rbar":0.520683,"se_cs":0.012638,"se_kp":0.112477,"t_cs":0.979677,"t_bmp":0.481912,"patell_z":0.6769,"corrado_z":0.305221,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.060439,0.044033],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000803,"se":0.000703,"days":672,"t":1.142408,"p_one_sided":0.126642},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000368,0.001975],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":72,"theta":-0.000656,"ci":[-0.09183,0.090519],"p":0.552771,"t_kp":-0.133141,"rbar":0.520683,"se_cs":0.006147,"se_kp":0.054707,"t_cs":-0.106653,"t_bmp":-1.184979,"patell_z":-1.890908,"corrado_z":-1.439082},"21":{"n":72,"theta":0.012381,"ci":[-0.175073,0.199835],"p":0.478485,"t_kp":0.054146,"rbar":0.520683,"se_cs":0.012638,"se_kp":0.112477,"t_cs":0.979677,"t_bmp":0.481912,"patell_z":0.6769,"corrado_z":0.305221},"63":{"n":72,"theta":0.010988,"ci":[-0.205492,0.227468],"p":0.449677,"t_kp":0.12693,"rbar":0.520683,"se_cs":0.014594,"se_kp":0.129893,"t_cs":0.752895,"t_bmp":1.1297,"patell_z":1.191661,"corrado_z":-0.541903}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 7 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 4 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.57, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.23, 0.87]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.246. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.571429,"ci":[0.225322,0.871244],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":7,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.571429,"ci":[0.225322,0.871244],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.2463,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2019-08-05","move":-0.030073,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-11","move":-0.048749,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-12","move":-0.095677,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-13","move":0.085486,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-16","move":-0.109424,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-17","move":0.053992,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-26","move":0.05839,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,9.553212],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,9.553212],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,14.285578],"absence_days":10,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"6 of 76 trades (7.9%) were disclosed late; median lag 6 days.","detail":"Late share 0.079, Wilson [0.041, 0.145]; 90th percentile lag 35 days; longest 404 days. Late-minus-timely signed CAR -0.0203, p = 0.722.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.078947,"ci":[0.041372,0.14547],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.722,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.7938,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":76,"amendment_rows_excluded":10,"late":6,"late_from_trade":6,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.078947,"late_ci":[0.041372,0.14547],"median_lag":6,"p90_lag":35,"max_lag":404,"filings":33,"late_filings":3,"late_priced":10,"timely_priced":62,"late_priced_dates":10,"late_minus_timely_car":-0.020317,"late_minus_timely_ci":[-0.086882,0.021292],"late_minus_timely_p":0.722}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"25% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 38% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSIF, HSZS; jurisdiction sectors Automobile Manufacturers, Communication Services, Energy, Health Care, Interactive Media & Services, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors, Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals, Tobacco, Utilities. Dollar share 0.250 (identified set [0.062, 0.637], bootstrap 0.136-0.497); benchmarks S&P 500 0.335, congressional peers 0.378.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.127732,"ci":[-0.242404,0.118674],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":74,"in_jurisdiction_trades":16,"share":0.25036,"share_bounds":[0.061779,0.637103],"share_ci":[0.135688,0.496766],"benchmark_sp500":0.334653,"benchmark_peers":0.378092,"excess":-0.127732,"excess_ci":[-0.242404,0.118674],"committees":["HSIF","HSZS"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Automobile Manufacturers","Communication Services","Energy","Health Care","Interactive Media & Services","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors","Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Tobacco","Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"11 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 8 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"11 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 8 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"n_other":61,"trade_dates":8,"events":2882}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2021-07-19 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2021-07-19","changepoint_LR":25.72762,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.029106,"tradeday_rate_after":0.002561}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 82% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0124, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.012381,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.820896,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 9 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson [0.29, 0.71], exact one-sided p = 0.593; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.291201,0.708799],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.592735,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"hits":9,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.291201,0.708799],"priced":72,"share_followed":0.25}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"16% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 13%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.163; circular-shift null mean 0.134, 95th pct 0.233, p = 0.320. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0295, p = 0.287.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.162791,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.287262,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.162791,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":86,"cotraded_share":0.162791,"null_mean":0.133545,"null_p95":0.232558,"excess_p":0.32,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.162791,"excess_p_wo_top":0.27,"cotraded_car":0.029525,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.059883,0.118934],"cotraded_car_p":0.287262}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"20% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","detail":"20% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":17,"family_share":0.197674,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +23.07% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.2307 [-0.4535, 0.9148], t_KP = 0.74, over 5 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +13.46% (win rate 100%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.230655,"ci":[-0.453492,0.914802],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.249462,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":7,"share_in_round_trips":0.162791,"priced":4,"realized_mean":0.134552,"realized_win_rate":1,"opening_car":0.230655,"ci":[-0.453492,0.914802],"p":0.249462,"openings_priced":5}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2019-08-05","event_date":"2019-08-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.01,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-11","event_date":"2020-03-11","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.87,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-12","event_date":"2020-03-12","direction":"sell","move_pct":-9.57,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-13","event_date":"2020-03-13","direction":"sell","move_pct":8.55,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-16","event_date":"2020-03-16","direction":"sell","move_pct":-10.94,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-17","event_date":"2020-03-17","direction":"sell","move_pct":5.4,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-26","event_date":"2020-03-26","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.84,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}