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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.588786,0.736401],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":108,"lowest_band_share":0.666667,"lowest_band_ci":[0.588786,0.736401],"share_over_50k":0.055556,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":12,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"63 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 31 and trading spans 81% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.032 (identified set [0.019, 0.076]); trade-count HHI 0.023 vs. 95th percentile 0.014 of 108 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.81 [0.72, 0.89]. Top three issuers (FPEI, PFFV, VRP) carry at least 5% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":30.784146,"ci":[13.240026,53.481521],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":108,"issuers":63,"hhi_mid":0.032484,"hhi_bounds":[0.018698,0.075529],"n_eff":30.784146,"hhi_count":0.022805,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.013563,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.806219,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.720443,0.887034],"top3_share_lower":0.049744,"top3":["FPEI","PFFV","VRP"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"33% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 6% of trades look routine; 11.1% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.8%).","detail":"Batch-day share 10/30, Wilson [0.21, 0.48]; index of dispersion 8.83 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.06 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.111 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.048, p = 0.048.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.333333,"ci":[0.210837,0.483405],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.048,"p_holm":0.288,"q_bh":0.3575,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":108,"trade_days":30,"batch_share_trades":0.740741,"batch_day_share":0.333333,"batch_day_ci":[0.210837,0.483405],"dispersion_index":8.833642,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.064815,"proximity_share":0.111111,"proximity_null_mean":0.048412,"proximity_null_p95":0.101852,"proximity_p":0.048,"proximity_nonroutine":0.108911,"proximity_routine":0.142857}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 97 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 3.10% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0310; 90% KP interval [-0.0718, 0.0098]; t_BMP = -2.81, r-bar = 0.072, t_KP = -0.96, Patell Z = -3.54, Corrado Z = -1.74. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0667, 0.0099]. Calendar-time alpha -17.47%/yr (NW t = -1.03, 465 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.031015,"ci":[-0.071813,0.009783],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.848091,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.002454},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.023419},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.036599},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.031015},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.00992},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.174737}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":97,"theta":-0.031015,"ci":[-0.071813,0.009783],"p":0.831029,"t_kp":-0.963051,"rbar":0.07167,"se_cs":0.008431,"se_kp":0.024564,"t_cs":-3.678717,"t_bmp":-2.80588,"patell_z":-3.536462,"corrado_z":-1.736258,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.066703,0.00992],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000693,"se":0.000674,"days":465,"t":-1.028282,"p_one_sided":0.848091},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001813,0.000427],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":97,"theta":-0.002454,"ci":[-0.029367,0.024459],"p":0.486179,"t_kp":0.034742,"rbar":0.07167,"se_cs":0.005562,"se_kp":0.016204,"t_cs":-0.441195,"t_bmp":0.101222,"patell_z":0.189028,"corrado_z":0.085758},"21":{"n":97,"theta":-0.031015,"ci":[-0.071813,0.009783],"p":0.831029,"t_kp":-0.963051,"rbar":0.07167,"se_cs":0.008431,"se_kp":0.024564,"t_cs":-3.678717,"t_bmp":-2.80588,"patell_z":-3.536462,"corrado_z":-1.736258},"63":{"n":97,"theta":-0.023419,"ci":[-0.092864,0.046026],"p":0.719003,"t_kp":-0.581907,"rbar":0.07167,"se_cs":0.014351,"se_kp":0.041812,"t_cs":-1.631847,"t_bmp":-1.695404,"patell_z":-2.096517,"corrado_z":0.432925}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 4 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.10, 0.90]; exact one-sided p = 0.688; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.502. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.097611,0.902389],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.6875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":4,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.097611,0.902389],"p_exact":0.6875,"p_magnitude":0.5022,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2015-08-26","move":0.038394,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2015-09-01","move":-0.029848,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2019-01-04","move":0.033496,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-12-18","move":-0.029803,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,4.439031],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,4.439031],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,16.573634],"absence_days":17,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 161 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 15 days. Another 1 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.017]; 90th percentile lag 35 days; longest 140 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.016527],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.006211,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":161,"amendment_rows_excluded":5,"late":0,"late_from_trade":1,"excused_by_notification":1,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.016527],"median_lag":15,"p90_lag":35,"max_lag":140,"filings":79,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":2,"timely_priced":95,"late_priced_dates":1}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"23% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 13% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HLIG, HSJU; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Broadline Retail, IT Consulting & Other Services, Interactive Media & Services, Pharmaceuticals, Systems Software. Dollar share 0.230 (identified set [0.067, 0.545], bootstrap 0.098-0.406); benchmarks S&P 500 0.073, congressional peers 0.133.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.096374,"ci":[-0.034921,0.272666],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":78,"in_jurisdiction_trades":12,"share":0.229723,"share_bounds":[0.067346,0.544695],"share_ci":[0.098428,0.406015],"benchmark_sp500":0.073267,"benchmark_peers":0.133349,"excess":0.096374,"excess_ci":[-0.034921,0.272666],"committees":["HLIG","HSJU"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Broadline Retail","IT Consulting & Other Services","Interactive Media & Services","Pharmaceuticals","Systems Software"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"8 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 89 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"8 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 89 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":8,"n_other":89,"events":2232}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2025-12-17 (permutation p = 0.006).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2025-12-17","changepoint_LR":14.898017,"changepoint_p":0.006,"tradeday_rate_before":0.010033,"tradeday_rate_after":0.333333}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 9% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0310, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.031015,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.089552,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"38 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 16 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.42, Clopper-Pearson [0.28, 0.57], exact one-sided p = 0.872; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.421053,"ci":[0.284833,0.566932],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.872062,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":38,"hits":16,"hit_rate":0.421053,"ci":[0.284833,0.566932],"priced":97,"share_followed":0.391753}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 10%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.167; circular-shift null mean 0.102, 95th pct 0.167, p = 0.080. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0036, p = 0.550.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.166667,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.549887,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.166667,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":108,"cotraded_share":0.166667,"null_mean":0.101571,"null_p95":0.166667,"excess_p":0.08,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.166667,"excess_p_wo_top":0.03,"cotraded_car":-0.003602,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.040621,0.033417],"cotraded_car_p":0.549887}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 round trips but fewer than three priced.","detail":"1 round trips but fewer than three priced.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":1,"share_in_round_trips":0.018519}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2015-08-26","event_date":"2015-08-26","direction":"buy","move_pct":3.84,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2015-09-01","event_date":"2015-09-01","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.98,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2019-01-04","event_date":"2019-01-04","direction":"sell","move_pct":3.35,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-12-18","event_date":"2024-12-18","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.98,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}