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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.948276,"ci":[0.903097,0.97302],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":116,"lowest_band_share":0.948276,"lowest_band_ci":[0.903097,0.97302],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":9,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"73 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 45 and trading spans 90% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.022 (identified set [0.014, 0.099]); trade-count HHI 0.016 vs. 95th percentile 0.013 of 116 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.90 [0.88, 0.93]. Top three issuers (AMZN, BABA, NTDOY) carry at least 3% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":44.853756,"ci":[10.078934,72.995701],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":116,"issuers":73,"hhi_mid":0.022295,"hhi_bounds":[0.013699,0.099217],"n_eff":44.853756,"hhi_count":0.015755,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.012931,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.902709,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.882455,0.93496],"top3_share_lower":0.025125,"top3":["AMZN","BABA","NTDOY"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"46% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 30% of trades look routine; 7.8% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.7%).","detail":"Batch-day share 6/13, Wilson [0.26, 0.68]; index of dispersion 26.28 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.30 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.078 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.067, p = 0.274.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.461538,"ci":[0.261148,0.67518],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.274,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.709893,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":116,"trade_days":13,"batch_share_trades":0.931034,"batch_day_share":0.461538,"batch_day_ci":[0.261148,0.67518],"dispersion_index":26.279223,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.301724,"proximity_share":0.077586,"proximity_null_mean":0.066599,"proximity_null_p95":0.25,"proximity_p":0.274,"proximity_nonroutine":0.08642,"proximity_routine":0.057143}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 110 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.61% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0061; 90% KP interval [-0.0294, 0.0172]; t_BMP = -0.64, r-bar = 0.031, t_KP = -0.30, Patell Z = -0.80, Corrado Z = -0.28. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0587, 0.0522]. Calendar-time alpha -16.51%/yr (NW t = -0.55, 180 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.006093,"ci":[-0.029368,0.017182],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.707807,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.009268},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.015582},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.00645},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.052164},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.165097}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":110,"theta":-0.006093,"ci":[-0.029368,0.017182],"p":0.617488,"t_kp":-0.299637,"rbar":0.030816,"se_cs":0.006616,"se_kp":0.01403,"t_cs":-0.921008,"t_bmp":-0.635448,"patell_z":-0.799775,"corrado_z":-0.284463,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.058698,0.052164],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000655,"se":0.001198,"days":180,"t":-0.546988,"p_one_sided":0.707807},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.002642,0.001332],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":110,"theta":-0.009268,"ci":[-0.02558,0.007044],"p":0.82736,"t_kp":-0.947896,"rbar":0.030816,"se_cs":0.004636,"se_kp":0.009833,"t_cs":-1.9989,"t_bmp":-2.010231,"patell_z":-3.935173,"corrado_z":-2.389718},"21":{"n":110,"theta":-0.006093,"ci":[-0.029368,0.017182],"p":0.617488,"t_kp":-0.299637,"rbar":0.030816,"se_cs":0.006616,"se_kp":0.01403,"t_cs":-0.921008,"t_bmp":-0.635448,"patell_z":-0.799775,"corrado_z":-0.284463},"63":{"n":110,"theta":-0.015582,"ci":[-0.06847,0.037305],"p":0.648694,"t_kp":-0.382803,"rbar":0.030816,"se_cs":0.015033,"se_kp":0.03188,"t_cs":-1.036555,"t_bmp":-0.811822,"patell_z":-1.292603,"corrado_z":-1.070768}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.33, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.02, 0.86]; exact one-sided p = 0.875; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.750. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.333333,"ci":[0.016952,0.86465],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":3,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.333333,"ci":[0.016952,0.86465],"p_exact":0.875,"p_magnitude":0.7496,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2020-03-26","move":0.05839,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-03-07","move":-0.029479,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-03-09","move":0.026811,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"46 of 164 trades (28.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 28 days.","detail":"Late share 0.280, Wilson [0.227, 0.341]; 90th percentile lag 211 days; longest 211 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.280488,"ci":[0.226709,0.341392],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":164,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":46,"late_from_trade":46,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.280488,"late_ci":[0.226709,0.341392],"median_lag":28,"p90_lag":211,"max_lag":211,"filings":5,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":44,"timely_priced":66,"late_priced_dates":8}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 4% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAS, HSED; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Education Services, Human Resource & Employment Services. Dollar share 0.022 (identified set [0.002, 0.220], bootstrap 0.003-0.055); benchmarks S&P 500 0.030, congressional peers 0.039.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.016969,"ci":[-0.035305,0.016443],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":80,"in_jurisdiction_trades":2,"share":0.021707,"share_bounds":[0.001612,0.220462],"share_ci":[0.003372,0.055119],"benchmark_sp500":0.029703,"benchmark_peers":0.038676,"excess":-0.016969,"excess_ci":[-0.035305,0.016443],"committees":["HSAS","HSED"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Education Services","Human Resource & Employment Services"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 110 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 110 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":110,"events":1151}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2020-10-19 (permutation p = 0.006).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2020-10-19","changepoint_LR":13.451782,"changepoint_p":0.006,"tradeday_rate_before":0.052632,"tradeday_rate_after":0.005236}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 33% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0061, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.006093,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.328358,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"14 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 8 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.57, Clopper-Pearson [0.33, 0.79], exact one-sided p = 0.395; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.571429,"ci":[0.325028,0.793927],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.395264,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"hits":8,"hit_rate":0.571429,"ci":[0.325028,0.793927],"priced":110,"share_followed":0.127273}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"13% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 14%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.129; circular-shift null mean 0.137, 95th pct 0.216, p = 0.550. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0326, p = 0.744.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.12931,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.744046,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.094828,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":116,"cotraded_share":0.12931,"null_mean":0.137496,"null_p95":0.216379,"excess_p":0.55,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.094828,"excess_p_wo_top":0.73,"cotraded_car":-0.032553,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.112147,0.047042],"cotraded_car_p":0.744046}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"98% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -0.65% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0065 [-0.0299, 0.0169], t_KP = -0.32.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.006492,"ci":[-0.029858,0.016873],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.62706,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":114,"family_share":0.982759,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.006492,"family_ci":[-0.029858,0.016873],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"11 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -2.79% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0279 [-0.0652, 0.0093], t_KP = -1.16, over 10 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -15.17% (win rate 30%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.027936,"ci":[-0.065184,0.009313],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.861844,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":11,"share_in_round_trips":0.189655,"priced":10,"realized_mean":-0.151714,"realized_win_rate":0.3,"opening_car":-0.027936,"ci":[-0.065184,0.009313],"p":0.861844,"openings_priced":10}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-26","event_date":"2020-03-26","direction":"sell","move_pct":5.84,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-03-07","event_date":"2022-03-07","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.95,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-03-09","event_date":"2022-03-09","direction":"sell","move_pct":2.68,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}