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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.982353,"ci":[0.956667,0.992926],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":170,"lowest_band_share":0.982353,"lowest_band_ci":[0.956667,0.992926],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":36,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"57 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 40 and trading spans 93% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.025 (identified set [0.018, 0.192]); trade-count HHI 0.024 vs. 95th percentile 0.010 of 170 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.93 [0.92, 0.97]. Top three issuers (CVX, CMI, TM) carry at least 2% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":39.741734,"ci":[5.196508,56.981696],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":170,"issuers":57,"hhi_mid":0.025162,"hhi_bounds":[0.017549,0.192437],"n_eff":39.741734,"hhi_count":0.024498,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.009834,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.929894,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.917665,0.965509],"top3_share_lower":0.019141,"top3":["CVX","CMI","TM"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"45% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 11% of trades look routine; 21.2% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.3%).","detail":"Batch-day share 14/31, Wilson [0.31, 0.60]; index of dispersion 14.09 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.11 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.212 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.073, p = 0.006.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.451613,"ci":[0.314449,0.596545],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.006,"p_holm":0.054,"q_bh":0.286,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":170,"trade_days":31,"batch_share_trades":0.864706,"batch_day_share":0.451613,"batch_day_ci":[0.314449,0.596545],"dispersion_index":14.091156,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.105882,"proximity_share":0.211765,"proximity_null_mean":0.073182,"proximity_null_p95":0.129412,"proximity_p":0.006,"proximity_nonroutine":0.177632,"proximity_routine":0.5}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 158 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.03% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0003; 90% KP interval [-0.0220, 0.0226]; t_BMP = 0.25, r-bar = 0.033, t_KP = 0.10, Patell Z = 0.30, Corrado Z = 0.25. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0690, 0.0636]. Calendar-time alpha -3.90%/yr (NW t = -0.24, 526 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.000264,"ci":[-0.022045,0.022574],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.596596,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.003427},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.013757},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.00348},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.063613},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.038963}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":158,"theta":0.000264,"ci":[-0.022045,0.022574],"p":0.461451,"t_kp":0.096934,"rbar":0.033071,"se_cs":0.005328,"se_kp":0.013483,"t_cs":0.049607,"t_bmp":0.245301,"patell_z":0.296943,"corrado_z":0.247293,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.069042,0.063613],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000155,"se":0.000632,"days":526,"t":-0.244547,"p_one_sided":0.596596},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001201,0.000892],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":158,"theta":-0.003427,"ci":[-0.01595,0.009097],"p":0.618291,"t_kp":-0.301518,"rbar":0.033071,"se_cs":0.002991,"se_kp":0.007569,"t_cs":-1.145678,"t_bmp":-0.763023,"patell_z":-1.120113,"corrado_z":-0.775496},"21":{"n":158,"theta":0.000264,"ci":[-0.022045,0.022574],"p":0.461451,"t_kp":0.096934,"rbar":0.033071,"se_cs":0.005328,"se_kp":0.013483,"t_cs":0.049607,"t_bmp":0.245301,"patell_z":0.296943,"corrado_z":0.247293},"63":{"n":158,"theta":0.013757,"ci":[-0.025016,0.052531],"p":0.220814,"t_kp":0.771403,"rbar":0.033071,"se_cs":0.00926,"se_kp":0.023433,"t_cs":1.485662,"t_bmp":1.952119,"patell_z":2.023173,"corrado_z":1.55016}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 11 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 7 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.64, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.35, 0.86]; exact one-sided p = 0.274; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.177. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.636364,"ci":[0.349812,0.864925],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.274414,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":11,"hits":7,"hit_rate":0.636364,"ci":[0.349812,0.864925],"p_exact":0.274414,"p_magnitude":0.1773,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2014-12-18","move":0.024729,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2015-09-01","move":-0.029848,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-02","move":-0.02177,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-05","move":-0.041822,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-06","move":0.019702,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2019-08-05","move":-0.030073,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-10","move":0.051745,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":15,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-11","move":-0.048749,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":15,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-12","move":-0.095677,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":15,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-13","move":0.085486,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":15,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-16","move":-0.109424,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":15,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,2.837391],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,2.837391],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,16.193008],"absence_days":10,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"17 of 174 trades (9.8%) were disclosed late; median lag 30 days. Another 7 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.098, Wilson [0.067, 0.141]; 90th percentile lag 243 days; longest 730 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.097701,"ci":[0.066609,0.141113],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.137931,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":174,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":17,"late_from_trade":24,"excused_by_notification":7,"late_share":0.097701,"late_ci":[0.066609,0.141113],"median_lag":30,"p90_lag":243,"max_lag":730,"filings":28,"late_filings":3,"late_priced":17,"timely_priced":141,"late_priced_dates":3}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"30% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 25% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SSEG, SSFI, SSHR, SSVA; jurisdiction sectors Copper, Distillers & Vintners, Energy, Gold, Health Care, Health Care Facilities, Health Care Services, Human Resource & Employment Services, Life & Health Insurance, Timber REITs, Tobacco, Utilities. Dollar share 0.301 (identified set [0.034, 0.842], bootstrap 0.232-0.406); benchmarks S&P 500 0.251, congressional peers 0.190.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.049688,"ci":[-0.019927,0.15433],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":158,"in_jurisdiction_trades":47,"share":0.301174,"share_bounds":[0.03399,0.841759],"share_ci":[0.231558,0.405815],"benchmark_sp500":0.251485,"benchmark_peers":0.190429,"excess":0.049688,"excess_ci":[-0.019927,0.15433],"committees":["SSEG","SSFI","SSHR","SSVA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Copper","Distillers & Vintners","Energy","Gold","Health Care","Health Care Facilities","Health Care Services","Human Resource & Employment Services","Life & Health Insurance","Timber REITs","Tobacco","Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"40 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved -1.11% in the trade's favour, -1.53% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = -0.0111; pre-event minus other trades = -0.0153 [-0.0303, 0.0043], p = 0.924; mean pre-trade drift psi = -0.0005.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":-0.01528,"ci":[-0.030339,0.004334],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.924,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.988722,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.003672},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.010696},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.005227},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"n_other":118,"theta9":-0.011147,"diff":-0.01528,"ci":[-0.030339,0.004334],"p":0.924,"pre_trade_drift":-0.000515,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":4692,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":2218,"committee_markup":1099,"committee_reported":974,"became_law":401},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.253165,"trade_dates":17,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2014-09-12 (permutation p = 0.270).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2014-09-12","changepoint_LR":5.965012,"changepoint_p":0.27,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.018692}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 59% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0003, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.000264,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.589552,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"51 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 25 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.49, Clopper-Pearson [0.37, 0.61], exact one-sided p = 0.610; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.490196,"ci":[0.368171,0.613109],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.610116,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":51,"hits":25,"hit_rate":0.490196,"ci":[0.368171,0.613109],"priced":158,"share_followed":0.322785}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 15%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.182; circular-shift null mean 0.147, 95th pct 0.201, p = 0.120. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0182, p = 0.818.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.182353,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.817989,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.932507,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.170588,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":170,"cotraded_share":0.182353,"null_mean":0.147356,"null_p95":0.200588,"excess_p":0.12,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.170588,"excess_p_wo_top":0.13,"cotraded_car":-0.01822,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.046665,0.010226],"cotraded_car_p":0.817989}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"99% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +0.03% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0003 [-0.0220, 0.0226], t_KP = 0.10.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.000264,"ci":[-0.022045,0.022574],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.461451,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":169,"family_share":0.994118,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.000264,"family_ci":[-0.022045,0.022574],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"15 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +3.90% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0390 [0.0047, 0.0732], t_KP = 1.81, over 14 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +5.15% (win rate 73%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.038961,"ci":[0.004732,0.073191],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.046475,"p_holm":0.371797,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":15,"share_in_round_trips":0.176471,"priced":15,"realized_mean":0.051535,"realized_win_rate":0.733333,"opening_car":0.038961,"ci":[0.004732,0.073191],"p":0.046475,"openings_priced":14}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2014-12-18","event_date":"2014-12-18","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.47,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}