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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030716-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030716.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.050757},{"date":"2025-07-03","filed":"2025-08-11","ticker":"VRSN","issuer":"VeriSign, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030716-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030716.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.025858}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of 46 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 1.000, 90% Wilson [0.944, 1.000]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":1,"ci":[0.944451,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":46,"lowest_band_share":1,"lowest_band_ci":[0.944451,1],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":1,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"30 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 26 and trading spans 67% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.038 (identified set [0.033, 0.270]); trade-count HHI 0.038 vs. 95th percentile 0.027 of 46 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.67 [0.63, 0.76]. Top three issuers (HD, AMZN, BLK) carry at least 1% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":26.45,"ci":[3.698017,30],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":46,"issuers":30,"hhi_mid":0.037807,"hhi_bounds":[0.033333,0.270415],"n_eff":26.45,"hhi_count":0.037807,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.02741,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.674923,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.632096,0.757922],"top3_share_lower":0.011836,"top3":["HD","AMZN","BLK"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"20% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 2.2% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.9%).","detail":"Batch-day share 2/10, Wilson [0.07, 0.46]; index of dispersion 18.24 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.022 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.059, p = 0.808.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.2,"ci":[0.068558,0.459207],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.808,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":46,"trade_days":10,"batch_share_trades":0.804348,"batch_day_share":0.2,"batch_day_ci":[0.068558,0.459207],"dispersion_index":18.239316,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.021739,"proximity_null_mean":0.05938,"proximity_null_p95":0.173913,"proximity_p":0.808,"proximity_nonroutine":0.021739,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 44 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.38% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0138; 90% KP interval [-0.0199, 0.0474]; t_BMP = 1.38, r-bar = 0.009, t_KP = 1.17, Patell Z = 1.53, Corrado Z = 1.85. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0893, 0.1502]. Calendar-time alpha 82.92%/yr (NW t = 0.74, 113 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.013759,"ci":[-0.019863,0.047382],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.231091,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.006239},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.010621},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.046475},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.013759},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.15016},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.829241}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":44,"theta":0.013759,"ci":[-0.019863,0.047382],"p":0.125217,"t_kp":1.16502,"rbar":0.00898,"se_cs":0.016911,"se_kp":0.020001,"t_cs":0.813619,"t_bmp":1.377841,"patell_z":1.526592,"corrado_z":1.854668,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.08934,0.15016],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.003291,"se":0.004475,"days":113,"t":0.73526,"p_one_sided":0.231091},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.004233,0.010814],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":44,"theta":0.006239,"ci":[-0.012816,0.025294],"p":0.407607,"t_kp":0.235144,"rbar":0.00898,"se_cs":0.009584,"se_kp":0.011335,"t_cs":0.650974,"t_bmp":0.278099,"patell_z":0.324074,"corrado_z":0.53559},"21":{"n":44,"theta":0.013759,"ci":[-0.019863,0.047382],"p":0.125217,"t_kp":1.16502,"rbar":0.00898,"se_cs":0.016911,"se_kp":0.020001,"t_cs":0.813619,"t_bmp":1.377841,"patell_z":1.526592,"corrado_z":1.854668},"63":{"n":44,"theta":-0.010621,"ci":[-0.073311,0.05207],"p":0.386194,"t_kp":0.291083,"rbar":0.00898,"se_cs":0.031532,"se_kp":0.037292,"t_cs":-0.336823,"t_bmp":0.344257,"patell_z":0.407303,"corrado_z":1.338903}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,21.600737],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,21.600737],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,112.119794],"absence_days":4,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 of 50 trades (4.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 8 days.","detail":"Late share 0.040, Wilson [0.013, 0.114]; 90th percentile lag 39 days; longest 1030 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.04,"ci":[0.013326,0.1139],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":50,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":2,"late_from_trade":2,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.04,"late_ci":[0.013326,0.1139],"median_lag":8,"p90_lag":39,"max_lag":1030,"filings":8,"late_filings":2,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":44,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 0% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSED, HSGO; jurisdiction sectors Education Services, Human Resource & Employment Services. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.004, congressional peers 0.003.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.00396,"ci":[-0.00396,-0.00396],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":44,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0.00396,"benchmark_peers":0.003037,"excess":-0.00396,"excess_ci":[-0.00396,-0.00396],"committees":["HSED","HSGO"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Education Services","Human Resource & Employment Services"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 44 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 44 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":44,"events":866}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2020-12-18 (permutation p = 0.024).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2020-12-18","changepoint_LR":12.231704,"changepoint_p":0.024,"tradeday_rate_before":0.048544,"tradeday_rate_after":0.004219}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 85% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0138, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.013759,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.850746,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 5 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.71, Clopper-Pearson [0.34, 0.95], exact one-sided p = 0.227; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.714286,"ci":[0.341261,0.946624],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.226562,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":7,"hits":5,"hit_rate":0.714286,"ci":[0.341261,0.946624],"priced":44,"share_followed":0.159091}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"20% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 20%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.196; circular-shift null mean 0.197, 95th pct 0.393, p = 0.500. Co-traded signed CAR 0.1023, p = 0.029.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.195652,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.028951,"p_holm":0.173707,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.195652,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":46,"cotraded_share":0.195652,"null_mean":0.19697,"null_p95":0.393478,"excess_p":0.5,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.195652,"excess_p_wo_top":0.34,"cotraded_car":0.102323,"cotraded_car_ci":[0.000105,0.204541],"cotraded_car_p":0.028951}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"11 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -3.21% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0321 [-0.0763, 0.0120], t_KP = -0.52, over 11 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -6.96% (win rate 27%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.032113,"ci":[-0.076264,0.012038],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.691223,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":11,"share_in_round_trips":0.478261,"priced":11,"realized_mean":-0.069586,"realized_win_rate":0.272727,"opening_car":-0.032113,"ci":[-0.076264,0.012038],"p":0.691223,"openings_priced":11}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}