{"id":"C001120","trades":[{"date":"2020-03-12","filed":"2021-03-24","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":true,"trade_id":"H20018373-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018373.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.145587},{"date":"2020-03-25","filed":"2021-03-24","ticker":"FAS","issuer":"Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20018373-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018373.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.111793},{"date":"2020-03-25","filed":"2021-03-24","ticker":"SPXC","issuer":"SPX 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Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019942-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019942.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.082754},{"date":"2021-11-16","filed":"2021-12-07","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019942-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019942.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.049238},{"date":"2021-12-02","filed":"2021-12-07","ticker":"SPY","issuer":"SPDR S&P 500","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20019942-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019942.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0},{"date":"2021-12-14","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"RIVN","issuer":"Rivian Automotive, Inc. - Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020189-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020189.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-12-23","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"RIVN","issuer":"Rivian Automotive, Inc. - Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020189-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020189.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-12-29","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020189-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020189.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.047284},{"date":"2022-01-10","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"FAS","issuer":"Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020197-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020197.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.02268},{"date":"2022-01-20","filed":"2022-02-02","ticker":"BA","issuer":"Boeing Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020310-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020310.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.061093},{"date":"2022-01-20","filed":"2022-02-02","ticker":"HTZWW","issuer":"Hertz Global Holdings, Inc - Warrant","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Other","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020310-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020310.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-01-20","filed":"2022-02-02","ticker":"LUV","issuer":"Southwest Airlines Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020310-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020310.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010275},{"date":"2022-01-26","filed":"2022-02-02","ticker":"SPY","issuer":"SPDR S&P 500","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020310-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020310.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0},{"date":"2022-10-25","filed":"2022-12-01","ticker":"GOOG","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class C Capital Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021255-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021255.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.138018},{"date":"2022-10-25","filed":"2022-12-01","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021255-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021255.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.213083},{"date":"2022-10-25","filed":"2022-12-01","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021255-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021255.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.011768},{"date":"2022-10-25","filed":"2022-12-01","ticker":"FAS","issuer":"Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20021255-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021255.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.102343},{"date":"2022-10-25","filed":"2022-12-01","ticker":"META","issuer":"Meta Platforms, Inc. - Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021255-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021255.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.318198},{"date":"2022-10-25","filed":"2022-12-01","ticker":"USO","issuer":"United States Oil Fund","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021255-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021255.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028912},{"date":"2022-10-25","filed":"2022-12-01","ticker":"WYNN","issuer":"Wynn Resorts, Limited","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021255-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021255.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.176793},{"date":"2023-03-20","filed":"2023-04-20","ticker":"SPY","issuer":"SPDR S&P 500","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20022770-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022770.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0},{"date":"2026-04-28","filed":"2026-07-16","ticker":"META","issuer":"Meta Platforms, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"option","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035024-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035024.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.122316},{"date":"2026-05-05","filed":"2026-07-16","ticker":"META","issuer":"Meta Platforms, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035024-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035024.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.027149},{"date":"2026-06-01","filed":"2026-07-16","ticker":"GOOG","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class C Capital Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035024-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035024.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.00722},{"date":"2026-06-01","filed":"2026-07-16","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035024-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035024.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.023032},{"date":"2026-06-01","filed":"2026-07-16","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035024-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035024.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.006737},{"date":"2026-06-01","filed":"2026-07-16","ticker":null,"issuer":"FAS","asset_type":"other","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20035024-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035024.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2026-06-01","filed":"2026-07-16","ticker":"META","issuer":"Meta Platforms, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035024-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035024.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.023342},{"date":"2026-06-01","filed":"2026-07-16","ticker":"USOU","issuer":"United States 3x Oil Fund","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20035024-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035024.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"95% of 40 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.950, 90% Wilson [0.860, 0.983]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.95,"ci":[0.859668,0.983314],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"lowest_band_share":0.95,"lowest_band_ci":[0.859668,0.983314],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":14,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 10 and trading spans 66% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.100 (identified set [0.059, 0.446]); trade-count HHI 0.079 vs. 95th percentile 0.031 of 40 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.66 [0.59, 0.74]. Top three issuers (FAS, SPXC, TSLA) carry at least 9% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":9.976603,"ci":[2.240846,16.968245],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"issuers":17,"hhi_mid":0.100235,"hhi_bounds":[0.058934,0.44626],"n_eff":9.976603,"hhi_count":0.07875,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.03125,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.659859,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.593019,0.736587],"top3_share_lower":0.08698,"top3":["FAS","SPXC","TSLA"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"23% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 12% of trades look routine; 35.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.2%).","detail":"Batch-day share 5/22, Wilson [0.12, 0.40]; index of dispersion 3.08 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.12 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.350 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.052, p = 0.002.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.227273,"ci":[0.115279,0.399],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.002,"p_holm":0.016,"q_bh":0.286,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"trade_days":22,"batch_share_trades":0.525,"batch_day_share":0.227273,"batch_day_ci":[0.115279,0.399],"dispersion_index":3.07725,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.125,"proximity_share":0.35,"proximity_null_mean":0.051754,"proximity_null_p95":0.15,"proximity_p":0.002,"proximity_nonroutine":0.4,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 35 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 3.69% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0369; 90% KP interval [-0.1257, 0.0519]; t_BMP = -1.93, r-bar = 0.120, t_KP = -0.80, Patell Z = -3.75, Corrado Z = -2.46. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.1546, 0.0652]. Calendar-time alpha 10.43%/yr (NW t = 0.24, 235 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.03689,"ci":[-0.125715,0.051934],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.785647,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.03006},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.005816},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.031662},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.03689},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.065238},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.104265}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":35,"theta":-0.03689,"ci":[-0.125715,0.051934],"p":0.785647,"t_kp":-0.800977,"rbar":0.120467,"se_cs":0.021824,"se_kp":0.05253,"t_cs":-1.690386,"t_bmp":-1.927983,"patell_z":-3.750851,"corrado_z":-2.46199,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.154601,0.065238],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000414,"se":0.0017,"days":235,"t":0.243386,"p_one_sided":0.403853},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.002461,0.003288],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":35,"theta":-0.03006,"ci":[-0.102209,0.042089],"p":0.739223,"t_kp":-0.64766,"rbar":0.120467,"se_cs":0.017727,"se_kp":0.042669,"t_cs":-1.695758,"t_bmp":-1.558944,"patell_z":-4.782172,"corrado_z":-1.416748},"21":{"n":35,"theta":-0.03689,"ci":[-0.125715,0.051934],"p":0.785647,"t_kp":-0.800977,"rbar":0.120467,"se_cs":0.021824,"se_kp":0.05253,"t_cs":-1.690386,"t_bmp":-1.927983,"patell_z":-3.750851,"corrado_z":-2.46199},"63":{"n":35,"theta":-0.005816,"ci":[-0.117536,0.105904],"p":0.594624,"t_kp":-0.241325,"rbar":0.120467,"se_cs":0.027449,"se_kp":0.06607,"t_cs":-0.211882,"t_bmp":-0.580879,"patell_z":-0.659904,"corrado_z":-1.168216}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 7 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 4 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.57, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.23, 0.87]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.389. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.571429,"ci":[0.225322,0.871244],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":7,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.571429,"ci":[0.225322,0.871244],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.3888,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2020-03-13","move":0.085486,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-16","move":-0.109424,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-17","move":0.053992,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-18","move":-0.050633,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-26","move":0.05839,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-01-28","move":0.024835,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2026-06-05","move":-0.025809,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,4.430064],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,4.430064],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,8.309738],"absence_days":28,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"10 of 41 trades (24.4%) were disclosed late; median lag 37 days.","detail":"Late share 0.244, Wilson [0.152, 0.368]; 90th percentile lag 363 days; longest 377 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.243902,"ci":[0.151741,0.367771],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":41,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":10,"late_from_trade":10,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.243902,"late_ci":[0.151741,0.367771],"median_lag":37,"p90_lag":363,"max_lag":377,"filings":8,"late_filings":2,"late_priced":9,"timely_priced":26,"late_priced_dates":7}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"42% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 35% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HLIG, HSIF; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Automobile Manufacturers, Communication Services, Energy, Health Care, IT Consulting & Other Services, Interactive Media & Services, Systems Software, Tobacco, Utilities. Dollar share 0.420 (identified set [0.055, 0.889], bootstrap 0.216-0.560); benchmarks S&P 500 0.323, congressional peers 0.345.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.075284,"ci":[-0.129054,0.214831],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":32,"in_jurisdiction_trades":16,"share":0.420303,"share_bounds":[0.055035,0.888836],"share_ci":[0.215966,0.559851],"benchmark_sp500":0.322772,"benchmark_peers":0.345019,"excess":0.075284,"excess_ci":[-0.129054,0.214831],"committees":["HLIG","HSIF"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Automobile Manufacturers","Communication Services","Energy","Health Care","IT Consulting & Other Services","Interactive Media & Services","Systems Software","Tobacco","Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"13 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved -2.86% in the trade's favour, +1.32% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = -0.0286; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0132 [-0.0484, 0.0826], p = 0.394; mean pre-trade drift psi = 0.0281.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.013189,"ci":[-0.048395,0.082611],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.394,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.848154,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":null,"value":null},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.01237},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.004506},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":13,"n_other":22,"theta9":-0.0286,"diff":0.013189,"ci":[-0.048395,0.082611],"p":0.394,"pre_trade_drift":0.028135,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":3003,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":1294,"committee_markup":852,"committee_reported":656,"became_law":201},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.371429,"trade_dates":10,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2021-03-09, trading ran at 0.50 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2021-03-09, trading ran at 0.50 times its earlier rate. Change point 2022-01-27 (p = 0.002).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":0.5006,"ci":[0.268907,0.978472],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Crenshaw did not disclose stock transactions on time","url":"https://politicalwire.com/2021/03/09/crenshaw-did-not-disclose-stock-transactions/"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2022-01-27","changepoint_LR":20.731128,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.034694,"tradeday_rate_after":0.004413,"scrutiny_date":"2021-03-09","rate_ratio":0.5006,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.268907,0.978472]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 7% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0369, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.03689,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.074627,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"14 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.14, Clopper-Pearson [0.03, 0.39], exact one-sided p = 0.999; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.142857,"ci":[0.025999,0.38539],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.999084,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.142857,"ci":[0.025999,0.38539],"priced":35,"share_followed":0.4}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"12% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 19%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.125; circular-shift null mean 0.185, 95th pct 0.300, p = 0.870. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0205, p = 0.524.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.125,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.524483,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.125,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"cotraded_share":0.125,"null_mean":0.185354,"null_p95":0.3,"excess_p":0.87,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.125,"excess_p_wo_top":0.87,"cotraded_car":-0.020537,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.200848,0.159774],"cotraded_car_p":0.524483}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"6 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -7.04% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0704 [-0.1324, -0.0085], t_KP = -3.01, over 5 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -5.79% (win rate 33%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.07043,"ci":[-0.132392,-0.008469],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.980318,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":6,"share_in_round_trips":0.3,"priced":6,"realized_mean":-0.057944,"realized_win_rate":0.333333,"opening_car":-0.07043,"ci":[-0.132392,-0.008469],"p":0.980318,"openings_priced":5}},{"id":"T16","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 option trades (5% of all reported trades).","detail":"2 option trades (5% of all reported trades).","estimate":{"label":"Option share","value":0.04878,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":2,"option_share":0.04878}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-13","event_date":"2020-03-13","direction":"buy","move_pct":8.55,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-16","event_date":"2020-03-16","direction":"buy","move_pct":-10.94,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-17","event_date":"2020-03-17","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.4,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-18","event_date":"2020-03-18","direction":"buy","move_pct":-5.06,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-26","event_date":"2020-03-26","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.84,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-01-28","event_date":"2022-01-28","direction":"sell","move_pct":2.48,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2026-06-05","event_date":"2026-06-05","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.58,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}