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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034478-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034478.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004491},{"date":"2026-04-02","filed":"2026-05-13","ticker":"LLY","issuer":"Eli Lilly and Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034478-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034478.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.022401},{"date":"2026-04-02","filed":"2026-05-13","ticker":"LLY","issuer":"Eli Lilly and Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034478-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034478.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.022401},{"date":"2026-04-02","filed":"2026-05-13","ticker":"INTU","issuer":"Intuit Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034478-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034478.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.19578},{"date":"2026-04-02","filed":"2026-05-13","ticker":"INTU","issuer":"Intuit Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034478-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034478.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.19578},{"date":"2026-04-02","filed":"2026-05-13","ticker":"MRVL","issuer":"Marvell Technology, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034478-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034478.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.110773},{"date":"2026-04-02","filed":"2026-05-13","ticker":"MRVL","issuer":"Marvell Technology, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034478-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034478.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.110773},{"date":"2026-06-05","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"CDNS","issuer":"Cadence Design Systems, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034968-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034968.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.019273},{"date":"2026-06-05","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"CDNS","issuer":"Cadence Design Systems, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034968-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034968.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.019273},{"date":"2026-06-05","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"MPWR","issuer":"Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034968-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034968.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.043436},{"date":"2026-06-05","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"MPWR","issuer":"Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034968-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034968.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.043436},{"date":"2026-06-09","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"ZTS","issuer":"Zoetis Inc. Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034968-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034968.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.041164},{"date":"2026-06-09","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"ZTS","issuer":"Zoetis Inc. Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034968-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034968.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.041164},{"date":"2026-08-11","filed":"2026-09-15","ticker":"HWM","issuer":"Howmet Aerospace Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035420-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035420.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.038115},{"date":"2026-08-11","filed":"2026-09-15","ticker":"HWM","issuer":"Howmet Aerospace Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035420-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035420.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.038115},{"date":"2026-08-11","filed":"2026-09-15","ticker":"PH","issuer":"Parker-Hannifin Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035420-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035420.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.018774},{"date":"2026-08-11","filed":"2026-09-15","ticker":"PH","issuer":"Parker-Hannifin Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035420-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035420.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.018774},{"date":"2026-08-12","filed":"2026-09-15","ticker":"NFLX","issuer":"Netflix, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035420-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035420.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.093632},{"date":"2026-08-12","filed":"2026-09-15","ticker":"NFLX","issuer":"Netflix, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035420-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035420.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.093632}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"99% of 169 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.994, 90% Wilson [0.974, 0.999]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.994083,"ci":[0.973916,0.998679],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":169,"lowest_band_share":0.994083,"lowest_band_ci":[0.973916,0.998679],"share_over_50k":0.005917,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":15,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"53 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 32 and trading spans 62% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.031 (identified set [0.019, 0.200]); trade-count HHI 0.026 vs. 95th percentile 0.010 of 169 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.62 [0.58, 0.68]. Top three issuers (BTC, TTD, BRO) carry at least 3% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":32.148537,"ci":[5.001595,52.590022],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":169,"issuers":53,"hhi_mid":0.031106,"hhi_bounds":[0.019015,0.199936],"n_eff":32.148537,"hhi_count":0.026155,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.009769,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.623392,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.575629,0.675986],"top3_share_lower":0.029956,"top3":["BTC","TTD","BRO"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"61% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 11% of trades look routine; 8.9% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.8%).","detail":"Batch-day share 14/23, Wilson [0.44, 0.76]; index of dispersion 16.75 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.11 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.089 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.078, p = 0.342.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.608696,"ci":[0.43851,0.756001],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.342,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.764156,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":169,"trade_days":23,"batch_share_trades":0.852071,"batch_day_share":0.608696,"batch_day_ci":[0.43851,0.756001],"dispersion_index":16.746536,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.106509,"proximity_share":0.088757,"proximity_null_mean":0.077635,"proximity_null_p95":0.136095,"proximity_p":0.342,"proximity_nonroutine":0.066225,"proximity_routine":0.277778}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 164 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.01% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0001; 90% KP interval [-0.0386, 0.0388]; t_BMP = -0.61, r-bar = 0.048, t_KP = -0.20, Patell Z = -0.67, Corrado Z = -0.47. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.1054, 0.1095]. Calendar-time alpha 12.89%/yr (NW t = 0.60, 307 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.000104,"ci":[-0.038553,0.038761],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.57872,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.000101},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.024717},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.002113},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.00095},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.109471},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.12894}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":164,"theta":0.000104,"ci":[-0.038553,0.038761],"p":0.57872,"t_kp":-0.198936,"rbar":0.048151,"se_cs":0.007664,"se_kp":0.023368,"t_cs":0.013581,"t_bmp":-0.606547,"patell_z":-0.66605,"corrado_z":-0.46501,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.105419,0.109471],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000512,"se":0.000852,"days":307,"t":0.600264,"p_one_sided":0.274165},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000898,0.001922],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":164,"theta":0.000101,"ci":[-0.020694,0.020897],"p":0.438347,"t_kp":0.155405,"rbar":0.048151,"se_cs":0.004123,"se_kp":0.012571,"t_cs":0.024569,"t_bmp":0.473824,"patell_z":0.577207,"corrado_z":-0.327465},"21":{"n":164,"theta":0.000104,"ci":[-0.038553,0.038761],"p":0.57872,"t_kp":-0.198936,"rbar":0.048151,"se_cs":0.007664,"se_kp":0.023368,"t_cs":0.013581,"t_bmp":-0.606547,"patell_z":-0.66605,"corrado_z":-0.46501},"63":{"n":158,"theta":0.024717,"ci":[-0.041483,0.090917],"p":0.342169,"t_kp":0.407306,"rbar":0.048151,"se_cs":0.013342,"se_kp":0.040009,"t_cs":1.852603,"t_bmp":1.221419,"patell_z":1.140818,"corrado_z":0.614179}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 0 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.00, 0.95]; exact one-sided p = 1.000; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 1.000. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"p_exact":1,"p_magnitude":1,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2025-03-10","move":-0.026636,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":6,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 2.98 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 2.98 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":2.975155,"ci":[1.457856,5.475688],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":2.975155,"rate_ratio_ci":[1.457856,5.475688],"rate_ratio_batchdays":2.721591,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0.133679,14.063372],"absence_days":8,"trades_in_absence":8}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 173 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 33 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.015]; 90th percentile lag 40 days; longest 44 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.015398],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":173,"amendment_rows_excluded":1,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.015398],"median_lag":33,"p90_lag":40,"max_lag":44,"filings":15,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":164,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"41% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 23% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBA, HSGO; jurisdiction sectors Financials, Real Estate. Dollar share 0.407 (identified set [0.061, 0.897], bootstrap 0.339-0.586); benchmarks S&P 500 0.212, congressional peers 0.232.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.175847,"ci":[0.107872,0.354212],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":165,"in_jurisdiction_trades":57,"share":0.407402,"share_bounds":[0.061445,0.896854],"share_ci":[0.339427,0.585767],"benchmark_sp500":0.211881,"benchmark_peers":0.231555,"excess":0.175847,"excess_ci":[0.107872,0.354212],"committees":["HSBA","HSGO"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Financials","Real Estate"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"54 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved -3.14% in the trade's favour, -4.70% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = -0.0314; pre-event minus other trades = -0.0470 [-0.0819, -0.0152], p = 0.99; mean pre-trade drift psi = 0.0178.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":-0.047033,"ci":[-0.08188,-0.015234],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.99,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.99,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.038926},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.040805},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.035504},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":54,"n_other":110,"theta9":-0.031443,"diff":-0.047033,"ci":[-0.08188,-0.015234],"p":0.99,"pre_trade_drift":0.017826,"pre_trade_drift_significant":true,"events":2150,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":766,"committee_markup":739,"committee_reported":549,"became_law":96},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.329268,"trade_dates":11,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"documentary","summary":"Scrutiny on 2024-09-06 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","detail":"Scrutiny on 2024-09-06 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Campaign Legal Center complaint over 100+ undisclosed trades","url":"https://thecapitolist.com/watchdog-files-ethics-complaint-against-rep-byron-donalds-over-alleged-undisclosed-stock-trades/"}],"stats":{"scrutiny_date":"2024-09-06","changepoint":"2026-08-11","changepoint_LR":8.563105,"changepoint_p":0.086,"tradeday_rate_before":0.043299,"tradeday_rate_after":1}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 57% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0001, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.000104,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.567164,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"30 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 17 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.57, Clopper-Pearson [0.40, 0.72], exact one-sided p = 0.292; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.566667,"ci":[0.401629,0.72133],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.292332,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":30,"hits":17,"hit_rate":0.566667,"ci":[0.401629,0.72133],"priced":164,"share_followed":0.182927}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"23% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 20%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.231; circular-shift null mean 0.195, 95th pct 0.268, p = 0.260. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0157, p = 0.366.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.230769,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.366448,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.230769,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":169,"cotraded_share":0.230769,"null_mean":0.195087,"null_p95":0.268047,"excess_p":0.26,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.230769,"excess_p_wo_top":0.11,"cotraded_car":0.015731,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.026634,0.058097],"cotraded_car_p":0.366448}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"48% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +0.12% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0012 [-0.0402, 0.0426], t_KP = -0.18; family minus self 0.0022 [-0.0009, 0.0067], p = 0.136.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.001238,"ci":[-0.04016,0.042636],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.571066,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":81,"family_share":0.47929,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.001238,"family_ci":[-0.04016,0.042636],"diff":0.002188,"diff_ci":[-0.000943,0.006744],"diff_p":0.136}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"29 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -5.87% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0587 [-0.1098, -0.0075], t_KP = -2.79, over 27 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -14.39% (win rate 22%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.058688,"ci":[-0.109844,-0.007531],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.995108,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":29,"share_in_round_trips":0.343195,"priced":27,"realized_mean":-0.143915,"realized_win_rate":0.222222,"opening_car":-0.058688,"ci":[-0.109844,-0.007531],"p":0.995108,"openings_priced":27}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2025-03-10","event_date":"2025-03-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.66,"trade":"6 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}