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No firm-event calendar, so the event-linked size gap was not computed.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.93617,"ci":[0.850653,0.974205],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":47,"lowest_band_share":0.93617,"lowest_band_ci":[0.850653,0.974205],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"30 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 16 and trading spans 82% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.063 (identified set [0.033, 0.300]); trade-count HHI 0.043 vs. 95th percentile 0.028 of 47 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.82 [0.81, 0.86]. Top three issuers (ITW, NEE, VZ) carry at least 7% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":15.975096,"ci":[3.333807,29.983422],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":47,"issuers":30,"hhi_mid":0.062597,"hhi_bounds":[0.033352,0.299957],"n_eff":15.975096,"hhi_count":0.043006,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.027614,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.815279,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.812638,0.86273],"top3_share_lower":0.069431,"top3":["ITW","NEE","VZ"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 0.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.3%).","detail":"Batch-day share 2/39, Wilson [0.02, 0.14]; index of dispersion 1.41 (chi-square p = 1.75e-42); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.000 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.043, p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.051282,"ci":[0.017118,0.143665],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":47,"trade_days":39,"batch_share_trades":0.12766,"batch_day_share":0.051282,"batch_day_ci":[0.017118,0.143665],"dispersion_index":1.409226,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0,"proximity_null_mean":0.042596,"proximity_null_p95":0.106383,"proximity_p":1,"proximity_nonroutine":0,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 32 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.59% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0159; 90% KP interval [0.0005, 0.0312]; t_BMP = 1.38, r-bar = 0.000, t_KP = 1.38, Patell Z = 1.08, Corrado Z = 1.07. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0154, 0.0584]. Calendar-time alpha 10.78%/yr (NW t = 0.87, 409 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.015867,"ci":[0.0005,0.031235],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.190926,"p_holm":0.836769,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"fits","value":0.006992},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.037578},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.017067},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.01633},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.058405},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.107841}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":32,"theta":0.015867,"ci":[0.0005,0.031235],"p":0.088688,"t_kp":1.380271,"rbar":0,"se_cs":0.009064,"se_kp":0.009064,"t_cs":1.750654,"t_bmp":1.380271,"patell_z":1.077106,"corrado_z":1.071929,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.015389,0.058405],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000428,"se":0.000489,"days":409,"t":0.874489,"p_one_sided":0.190926},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000402,0.001258],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":32,"theta":0.006992,"ci":[0.001224,0.01276],"p":0.033852,"t_kp":1.89317,"rbar":0,"se_cs":0.003402,"se_kp":0.003402,"t_cs":2.05542,"t_bmp":1.89317,"patell_z":1.2873,"corrado_z":1.351804},"21":{"n":32,"theta":0.015867,"ci":[0.0005,0.031235],"p":0.088688,"t_kp":1.380271,"rbar":0,"se_cs":0.009064,"se_kp":0.009064,"t_cs":1.750654,"t_bmp":1.380271,"patell_z":1.077106,"corrado_z":1.071929},"63":{"n":32,"theta":0.037578,"ci":[-0.004517,0.079673],"p":0.135826,"t_kp":1.119202,"rbar":0,"se_cs":0.024827,"se_kp":0.024827,"t_cs":1.51358,"t_bmp":1.119202,"patell_z":1.145938,"corrado_z":1.194599}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 3.79 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 3.79 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":3.788962,"ci":[1.242155,9.200733],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":3.788962,"rate_ratio_ci":[1.242155,9.200733],"rate_ratio_batchdays":3.394279,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0.886212,9.367447],"absence_days":67,"trades_in_absence":4}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"32 of 54 trades (59.3%) were disclosed late; median lag 130 days. Another 2 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.593, Wilson [0.481, 0.696]; 90th percentile lag 508 days; longest 714 days. Late-minus-timely signed CAR 0.0008, p = 0.452.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.592593,"ci":[0.480757,0.695592],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.452,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.678,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.62963,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":54,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":32,"late_from_trade":34,"excused_by_notification":2,"late_share":0.592593,"late_ci":[0.480757,0.695592],"median_lag":130.5,"p90_lag":507.9,"max_lag":714,"filings":18,"late_filings":7,"late_priced":17,"timely_priced":15,"late_priced_dates":15,"late_minus_timely_car":0.000802,"late_minus_timely_ci":[-0.034946,0.025002],"late_minus_timely_p":0.452}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"22% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 20% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SSAS, SSCM, SSFR, SSVA; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Air Freight & Logistics, Automobile Manufacturers, Cargo Ground Transportation, Communication Services, Health Care Facilities, Health Care Services, Interactive Media & Services, Passenger Airlines, Rail Transportation, Semiconductors. Dollar share 0.216 (identified set [0.037, 0.663], bootstrap 0.058-0.515); benchmarks S&P 500 0.145, congressional peers 0.204.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.011723,"ci":[-0.146834,0.310862],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":33,"in_jurisdiction_trades":5,"share":0.216153,"share_bounds":[0.037338,0.662539],"share_ci":[0.057597,0.515293],"benchmark_sp500":0.144554,"benchmark_peers":0.204431,"excess":0.011723,"excess_ci":[-0.146834,0.310862],"committees":["SSAS","SSCM","SSFR","SSVA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Air Freight & Logistics","Automobile Manufacturers","Cargo Ground Transportation","Communication Services","Health Care Facilities","Health Care Services","Interactive Media & Services","Passenger Airlines","Rail Transportation","Semiconductors"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"4 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 28 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"4 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 28 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":4,"n_other":28,"events":4019}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2017-12-22 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2017-12-22","changepoint_LR":32.209017,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.025478,"tradeday_rate_after":0.002169}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 88% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0159, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.015867,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.880597,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"2 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 0 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson [0.00, 0.78], exact one-sided p = 1.000; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.776393],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":2,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.776393],"priced":32,"share_followed":0.0625}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"6% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 5%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.064; circular-shift null mean 0.053, 95th pct 0.106, p = 0.490. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0276, p = 0.167.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.06383,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.167354,"p_holm":0.836769,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.06383,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":47,"cotraded_share":0.06383,"null_mean":0.053084,"null_p95":0.106383,"excess_p":0.49,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.06383,"excess_p_wo_top":0.52,"cotraded_car":0.0276,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.036249,0.091449],"cotraded_car_p":0.167354}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":4}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}