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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[224,224],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033370-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20033370.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.031179},{"date":"2025-11-21","filed":"2025-12-19","ticker":"BABAF","issuer":"ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033667-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20033667.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.039339},{"date":"2025-11-21","filed":"2025-12-19","ticker":"AWK","issuer":"American Water Works Company, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033667-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20033667.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009385},{"date":"2025-11-21","filed":"2025-12-19","ticker":"APO","issuer":"Apollo Global Management, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033667-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20033667.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.03315},{"date":"2025-11-21","filed":"2025-12-19","ticker":"CVS","issuer":"CVS Health Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033667-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20033667.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.002587},{"date":"2025-11-21","filed":"2025-12-19","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033667-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20033667.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.000643},{"date":"2025-11-21","filed":"2025-12-19","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033667-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20033667.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.054125},{"date":"2025-11-21","filed":"2026-05-15","ticker":"CVS","issuer":"CVS Health Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20034556-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034556.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.002587},{"date":"2026-03-24","filed":"2026-04-20","ticker":"MU","issuer":"Micron Technology, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034379-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034379.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.164557},{"date":"2026-05-07","filed":"2026-05-15","ticker":"INTC","issuer":"Intel Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034556-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034556.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010281},{"date":"2026-05-07","filed":"2026-05-15","ticker":"PWR","issuer":"Quanta Services, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034556-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034556.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001854},{"date":"2026-05-07","filed":"2026-05-15","ticker":"TMO","issuer":"Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034556-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034556.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.081157},{"date":"2026-05-11","filed":"2026-05-15","ticker":"AMT","issuer":"American Tower Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034556-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034556.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004483},{"date":"2026-06-10","filed":"2026-06-24","ticker":"GD","issuer":"General Dynamics Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034851-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034851.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.050229},{"date":"2026-06-10","filed":"2026-06-24","ticker":"INTC","issuer":"Intel Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034851-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034851.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.059367}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"89% of 176 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.892, 90% Wilson [0.847, 0.925]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.892045,"ci":[0.847468,0.924752],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":176,"lowest_band_share":0.892045,"lowest_band_ci":[0.847468,0.924752],"share_over_50k":0.005682,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":23,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"79 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 29 and trading spans 88% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.034 (identified set [0.014, 0.135]); trade-count HHI 0.019 vs. 95th percentile 0.009 of 176 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.88 [0.85, 0.93]. Top three issuers (TDG, AMZN, GOOGL) carry at least 5% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":29.31969,"ci":[7.409455,71.004895],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":176,"issuers":79,"hhi_mid":0.034107,"hhi_bounds":[0.014084,0.134963],"n_eff":29.31969,"hhi_count":0.018982,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.009362,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.883699,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.846116,0.929928],"top3_share_lower":0.050441,"top3":["TDG","AMZN","GOOGL"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"57% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 13.1% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.9%).","detail":"Batch-day share 21/37, Wilson [0.43, 0.69]; index of dispersion 9.08 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.131 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.059, p = 0.026.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.567568,"ci":[0.43356,0.692367],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.026,"p_holm":0.182,"q_bh":0.309833,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":176,"trade_days":37,"batch_share_trades":0.863636,"batch_day_share":0.567568,"batch_day_ci":[0.43356,0.692367],"dispersion_index":9.079984,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.130682,"proximity_null_mean":0.058856,"proximity_null_p95":0.107955,"proximity_p":0.026,"proximity_nonroutine":0.130682,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 157 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.61% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0061; 90% KP interval [-0.0291, 0.0169]; t_BMP = -2.05, r-bar = 0.018, t_KP = -1.05, Patell Z = -2.32, Corrado Z = -1.70. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0716, 0.0646]. Calendar-time alpha -7.40%/yr (NW t = -0.38, 634 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.006125,"ci":[-0.029104,0.016855],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.851407,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001541},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.015888},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.004785},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.006125},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.064594},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.073964}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":157,"theta":-0.006125,"ci":[-0.029104,0.016855],"p":0.851407,"t_kp":-1.045986,"rbar":0.017887,"se_cs":0.007069,"se_kp":0.013888,"t_cs":-0.866425,"t_bmp":-2.054888,"patell_z":-2.322914,"corrado_z":-1.702364,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.071623,0.064594],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000294,"se":0.000779,"days":634,"t":-0.376915,"p_one_sided":0.646882},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001582,0.000995],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":157,"theta":0.001541,"ci":[-0.011492,0.014575],"p":0.530565,"t_kp":-0.076813,"rbar":0.017887,"se_cs":0.004009,"se_kp":0.007877,"t_cs":0.384436,"t_bmp":-0.150902,"patell_z":-0.206501,"corrado_z":0.52655},"21":{"n":157,"theta":-0.006125,"ci":[-0.029104,0.016855],"p":0.851407,"t_kp":-1.045986,"rbar":0.017887,"se_cs":0.007069,"se_kp":0.013888,"t_cs":-0.866425,"t_bmp":-2.054888,"patell_z":-2.322914,"corrado_z":-1.702364},"63":{"n":157,"theta":-0.015888,"ci":[-0.05608,0.024304],"p":0.72009,"t_kp":-0.584362,"rbar":0.017887,"se_cs":0.012364,"se_kp":0.02429,"t_cs":-1.28499,"t_bmp":-1.148007,"patell_z":-1.114211,"corrado_z":-0.700091}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 7 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 3 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.43, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.13, 0.77]; exact one-sided p = 0.773; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.729. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.428571,"ci":[0.128756,0.774678],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.773438,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":7,"hits":3,"hit_rate":0.428571,"ci":[0.128756,0.774678],"p_exact":0.773438,"p_magnitude":0.7285,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2020-03-03","move":-0.028632,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":17,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-04","move":0.042033,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":17,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-05","move":-0.033242,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":17,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-09","move":-0.078094,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":17,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-04","move":-0.058543,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":13,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-09","move":0.105019,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":13,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-10","move":-0.043819,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":13,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.15 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.15 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0.153168,"ci":[0.02701,0.488142],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0.153168,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.02701,0.488142],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0.370155,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0.018486,1.849975],"absence_days":172,"trades_in_absence":2}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"12 of 178 trades (6.7%) were disclosed late; median lag 35 days. Another 33 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.067, Wilson [0.043, 0.105]; 90th percentile lag 55 days; longest 155 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.067416,"ci":[0.042536,0.105249],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.252809,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":178,"amendment_rows_excluded":5,"late":12,"late_from_trade":45,"excused_by_notification":33,"late_share":0.067416,"late_ci":[0.042536,0.105249],"median_lag":35,"p90_lag":55.3,"max_lag":155,"filings":27,"late_filings":2,"late_priced":9,"timely_priced":148,"late_priced_dates":2}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"12% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 14% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSWM; jurisdiction sectors Distillers & Vintners, Health Care, Life & Health Insurance, Tobacco. Dollar share 0.118 (identified set [0.018, 0.485], bootstrap 0.069-0.209); benchmarks S&P 500 0.139, congressional peers 0.119.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.02049,"ci":[-0.06931,0.070561],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":143,"in_jurisdiction_trades":16,"share":0.118124,"share_bounds":[0.018308,0.484867],"share_ci":[0.069303,0.209175],"benchmark_sp500":0.138614,"benchmark_peers":0.11941,"excess":-0.02049,"excess_ci":[-0.06931,0.070561],"committees":["HSWM"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Distillers & Vintners","Health Care","Life & Health Insurance","Tobacco"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"fits","evidence":"statistical","summary":"15 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +3.79% in the trade's favour, +4.87% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = 0.0379; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0487 [0.0279, 0.0887], p = 0.002; mean pre-trade drift psi = 0.0246.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.048716,"ci":[0.027937,0.088651],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.002,"p_holm":0.016,"q_bh":0.024667,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"fits","value":0.048716},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"fits","value":0.045181},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"fits","value":0.055706},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null},{"variant":"Without trades read by OCR from scanned paper filings","value":0.032,"reading":"fits"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":15,"n_other":142,"theta9":0.037937,"diff":0.048716,"ci":[0.027937,0.088651],"p":0.002,"pre_trade_drift":0.024632,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":1493,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":723,"committee_markup":336,"committee_reported":311,"became_law":123},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.095541,"trade_dates":10,"placebo_reading":null,"no_ocr_p":0.004,"no_ocr_p_holm":0.032,"no_ocr_q_bh":0.048,"no_ocr_reading":"fits"}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2025-04-10, trading ran at 0.71 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2025-04-10, trading ran at 0.71 times its earlier rate. Change point 2026-05-07 (p = 0.164).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":0.710526,"ci":[0.436318,1.107016],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"OpenSecrets: stock sales disclosed 3.5 months late","url":"https://politicspa.com/?p=141195"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2026-05-07","changepoint_LR":7.413716,"changepoint_p":0.164,"tradeday_rate_before":0.01394,"tradeday_rate_after":0.12,"scrutiny_date":"2025-04-10","rate_ratio":0.710526,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.436318,1.107016]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 32% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0061, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.006125,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.320896,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"42 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 18 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.43, Clopper-Pearson [0.30, 0.57], exact one-sided p = 0.860; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.428571,"ci":[0.298311,0.566721],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.860022,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":42,"hits":18,"hit_rate":0.428571,"ci":[0.298311,0.566721],"priced":157,"share_followed":0.267516}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"14% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 14%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.136; circular-shift null mean 0.140, 95th pct 0.182, p = 0.600. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0263, p = 0.890.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.136364,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.889911,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.953281,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.119318,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":176,"cotraded_share":0.136364,"null_mean":0.139922,"null_p95":0.181818,"excess_p":0.6,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.119318,"excess_p_wo_top":0.54,"cotraded_car":-0.026341,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.070127,0.017445],"cotraded_car_p":0.889911}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -7.94% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0794 [-0.1325, -0.0264], t_KP = -2.92, over 4 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -9.73% (win rate 0%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.079434,"ci":[-0.132481,-0.026387],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.969141,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":4,"share_in_round_trips":0.045455,"priced":4,"realized_mean":-0.097335,"realized_win_rate":0,"opening_car":-0.079434,"ci":[-0.132481,-0.026387],"p":0.969141,"openings_priced":4}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-03","event_date":"2020-03-03","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.86,"trade":"17 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-04","event_date":"2020-03-04","direction":"buy","move_pct":4.2,"trade":"17 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-05","event_date":"2020-03-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.32,"trade":"17 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-09","event_date":"2020-03-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":-7.81,"trade":"17 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-04","event_date":"2025-04-04","direction":"sell","move_pct":-5.85,"trade":"13 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-09","event_date":"2025-04-09","direction":"sell","move_pct":10.5,"trade":"13 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-10","event_date":"2025-04-10","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.38,"trade":"13 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}