{"id":"E000298","trades":[{"date":"2022-02-10","filed":"2022-03-09","ticker":"CVX","issuer":"Chevron Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020587-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020587.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014318},{"date":"2022-02-10","filed":"2022-03-09","ticker":"MRVL","issuer":"Marvell Technology, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020587-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020587.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.032466},{"date":"2022-02-16","filed":"2022-03-09","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"Verizon Communications Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020587-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020587.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004988},{"date":"2022-02-16","filed":"2022-03-09","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020587-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020587.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.05398},{"date":"2022-03-04","filed":"2022-03-09","ticker":"HON","issuer":"Honeywell International Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020587-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020587.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001598},{"date":"2022-03-04","filed":"2022-03-09","ticker":"SPR","issuer":"Spirit Aerosystems Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020587-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020587.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-05-31","filed":"2022-06-03","ticker":"HON","issuer":"Honeywell International Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021149-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021149.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.019127},{"date":"2022-06-17","filed":"2022-07-18","ticker":null,"issuer":"US Treasury Savings Bond","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20021397-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021397.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-07-05","filed":"2022-08-01","ticker":"SPR","issuer":"Spirit Aerosystems Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20021461-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021461.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-07-05","filed":"2022-08-01","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021461-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021461.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.012057},{"date":"2022-07-12","filed":"2022-08-01","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"Verizon Communications Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021461-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021461.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.012653},{"date":"2022-07-19","filed":"2022-08-01","ticker":"CVX","issuer":"Chevron Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021461-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021461.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004863},{"date":"2022-08-01","filed":"2022-08-01","ticker":null,"issuer":"US Treasury Savings Bond","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20021461-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021461.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-09-27","filed":"2022-09-30","ticker":"MRVL","issuer":"Marvell Technology, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021779-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021779.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.004012},{"date":"2023-04-17","filed":"2023-09-30","ticker":null,"issuer":"US Treasury Savings Bond","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20023779-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023779.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2023-04-17","filed":"2023-09-30","ticker":null,"issuer":"US Treasury Savings Bond","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20023779-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023779.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2023-04-17","filed":"2023-09-30","ticker":null,"issuer":"US Treasury Savings Bond","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20023779-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023779.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"83% of 12 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.833, 90% Wilson [0.601, 0.943]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.833333,"ci":[0.600793,0.943219],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"lowest_band_share":0.833333,"lowest_band_ci":[0.600793,0.943219],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":1,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"6 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 3 and trading spans 48% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.377 (identified set [0.167, 0.828]); trade-count HHI 0.167 vs. 95th percentile 0.097 of 12 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.48 [0.27, 0.64]. Top three issuers (HON, CVX, MRVL) carry at least 27% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":2.650084,"ci":[1.2078,6],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"issuers":6,"hhi_mid":0.377346,"hhi_bounds":[0.166667,0.827952],"n_eff":2.650084,"hhi_count":0.166667,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.097222,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.481775,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.269029,0.63708],"top3_share_lower":0.274229,"top3":["HON","CVX","MRVL"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"0% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 8.3% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.9%).","detail":"Batch-day share 0/8, Wilson [0.00, 0.25]; index of dispersion 1.60 (chi-square p = 1.58e-06); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.083 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.059, p = 0.566.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.252724],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.566,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.94114,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"trade_days":8,"batch_share_trades":0,"batch_day_share":0,"batch_day_ci":[0,0.252724],"dispersion_index":1.603272,"dispersion_p":0.000002,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.083333,"proximity_null_mean":0.058617,"proximity_null_p95":0.166667,"proximity_p":0.566,"proximity_nonroutine":0.083333,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 10 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 4.18% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0418; 90% KP interval [-0.0902, 0.1739]; t_BMP = 1.09, r-bar = 0.184, t_KP = 0.60, Patell Z = 1.93, Corrado Z = 1.23. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0334, 0.1170]. Calendar-time alpha 18.69%/yr (NW t = 0.36, 109 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.041849,"ci":[-0.090233,0.173932],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.358588,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.007398},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.052851},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"not_assessed","value":0.026547},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.041849},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.117029},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.186911}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":10,"theta":0.041849,"ci":[-0.090233,0.173932],"p":0.280194,"t_kp":0.604581,"rbar":0.184338,"se_cs":0.039907,"se_kp":0.072054,"t_cs":1.048668,"t_bmp":1.091595,"patell_z":1.933964,"corrado_z":1.225946,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.033373,0.117029],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000742,"se":0.002048,"days":109,"t":0.362237,"p_one_sided":0.358588},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.003012,0.004495],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":10,"theta":-0.007398,"ci":[-0.030446,0.015649],"p":0.703732,"t_kp":-0.554822,"rbar":0.184338,"se_cs":0.006963,"se_kp":0.012573,"t_cs":-1.062423,"t_bmp":-1.001753,"patell_z":-0.588214,"corrado_z":-0.851585},"21":{"n":10,"theta":0.041849,"ci":[-0.090233,0.173932],"p":0.280194,"t_kp":0.604581,"rbar":0.184338,"se_cs":0.039907,"se_kp":0.072054,"t_cs":1.048668,"t_bmp":1.091595,"patell_z":1.933964,"corrado_z":1.225946},"63":{"n":10,"theta":0.052851,"ci":[-0.13442,0.240123],"p":0.283532,"t_kp":0.59412,"rbar":0.184338,"se_cs":0.056582,"se_kp":0.10216,"t_cs":0.93407,"t_bmp":1.072707,"patell_z":1.522436,"corrado_z":1.334141}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 2 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.03, 0.97]; exact one-sided p = 0.750; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.754. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.025321,0.974679],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.75,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":2,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.025321,0.974679],"p_exact":0.75,"p_magnitude":0.7538,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2022-03-07","move":-0.029479,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-03-09","move":0.026811,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 of 17 trades (17.6%) were disclosed late; median lag 21 days.","detail":"Late share 0.176, Wilson [0.073, 0.369]; 90th percentile lag 166 days; longest 166 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.176471,"ci":[0.072814,0.368967],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":17,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":3,"late_from_trade":3,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.176471,"late_ci":[0.072814,0.368967],"median_lag":21,"p90_lag":166,"max_lag":166,"filings":6,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":10,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 14% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBU, HSWM, JSEC; jurisdiction sectors Distillers & Vintners, Health Care, Life & Health Insurance, Tobacco. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.139, congressional peers 0.119.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.138614,"ci":[-0.138614,-0.138614],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":10,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0.138614,"benchmark_peers":0.11941,"excess":-0.138614,"excess_ci":[-0.138614,-0.138614],"committees":["HSBU","HSWM","JSEC"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Distillers & Vintners","Health Care","Life & Health Insurance","Tobacco"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 10 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 10 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":10,"events":1493}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"documentary","summary":"Scrutiny on 2024-09-30 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","detail":"Scrutiny on 2024-09-30 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Raw Story: members of the 118th Congress who violated the STOCK Act","url":"https://www.rawstory.com/congress-stock/"}],"stats":{"scrutiny_date":"2024-09-30","changepoint":"2022-02-17","changepoint_LR":5.335898,"changepoint_p":0.236,"tradeday_rate_before":0.4,"tradeday_rate_after":0.037736}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 97% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0418, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.041849,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.970149,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"3 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.67, Clopper-Pearson [0.14, 0.98], exact one-sided p = 0.500; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"priced":10,"share_followed":0.3}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 10%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.167; circular-shift null mean 0.101, 95th pct 0.250, p = 0.350.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.166667,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.166667,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"cotraded_share":0.166667,"null_mean":0.10101,"null_p95":0.25,"excess_p":0.35,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.166667,"excess_p_wo_top":0.21}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.72% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0272 [-0.2531, 0.3076], t_KP = 0.25, over 4 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +5.52% (win rate 75%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.027243,"ci":[-0.253123,0.307609],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.407713,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":5,"share_in_round_trips":0.833333,"priced":4,"realized_mean":0.055245,"realized_win_rate":0.75,"opening_car":0.027243,"ci":[-0.253123,0.307609],"p":0.407713,"openings_priced":4}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2022-03-07","event_date":"2022-03-07","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.95,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-03-09","event_date":"2022-03-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.68,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}