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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.38 (within-issuer permutation p = 0.136); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.270833,"ci":[0.226399,0.320377],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.136,"p_holm":0.952,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":240,"lowest_band_share":0.270833,"lowest_band_ci":[0.226399,0.320377],"share_over_50k":0.504167,"max_z":2.455996,"size_gap":0.383196,"size_gap_p":0.136,"event_linked":11,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"33 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 5 and trading spans 39% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.184 (identified set [0.095, 0.410]); trade-count HHI 0.084 vs. 95th percentile 0.008 of 240 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.39 [0.32, 0.44]. Top three issuers (NVDA, AMZN, AAPL) carry at least 33% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":5.43595,"ci":[2.441192,10.490173],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":240,"issuers":33,"hhi_mid":0.18396,"hhi_bounds":[0.095327,0.409636],"n_eff":5.43595,"hhi_count":0.084028,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.007674,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.391575,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.316701,0.444602],"top3_share_lower":0.328093,"top3":["NVDA","AMZN","AAPL"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"39% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 20% of trades look routine; 4.6% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.3%).","detail":"Batch-day share 25/64, Wilson [0.30, 0.49]; index of dispersion 7.08 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.20 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.046 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.063, p = 0.712.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.390625,"ci":[0.296703,0.493419],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.712,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":240,"trade_days":64,"batch_share_trades":0.7625,"batch_day_share":0.390625,"batch_day_ci":[0.296703,0.493419],"dispersion_index":7.084897,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.2,"proximity_share":0.045833,"proximity_null_mean":0.063034,"proximity_null_p95":0.117083,"proximity_p":0.712,"proximity_nonroutine":0.020833,"proximity_routine":0.145833}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 221 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.70% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0170; 90% KP interval [-0.0747, 0.0407]; t_BMP = -2.87, r-bar = 0.126, t_KP = -0.50, Patell Z = -2.37, Corrado Z = -2.72. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0360, 0.0210]. Calendar-time alpha 12.84%/yr (NW t = 0.59, 326 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.016991,"ci":[-0.074673,0.040691],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.691665,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.0117},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.026723},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.018611},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.016991},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.021035},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.128383}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":221,"theta":-0.016991,"ci":[-0.074673,0.040691],"p":0.691665,"t_kp":-0.501288,"rbar":0.126019,"se_cs":0.006091,"se_kp":0.034921,"t_cs":-2.789386,"t_bmp":-2.873819,"patell_z":-2.371017,"corrado_z":-2.721803,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.036047,0.021035],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000509,"se":0.00087,"days":326,"t":0.585427,"p_one_sided":0.27913},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000928,0.001947],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":225,"theta":-0.0117,"ci":[-0.044893,0.021492],"p":0.671654,"t_kp":-0.445081,"rbar":0.126019,"se_cs":0.003475,"se_kp":0.020096,"t_cs":-3.366894,"t_bmp":-2.573883,"patell_z":-2.578575,"corrado_z":-3.041949},"21":{"n":221,"theta":-0.016991,"ci":[-0.074673,0.040691],"p":0.691665,"t_kp":-0.501288,"rbar":0.126019,"se_cs":0.006091,"se_kp":0.034921,"t_cs":-2.789386,"t_bmp":-2.873819,"patell_z":-2.371017,"corrado_z":-2.721803},"63":{"n":215,"theta":-0.026723,"ci":[-0.185872,0.132426],"p":0.634438,"t_kp":-0.34408,"rbar":0.126019,"se_cs":0.01703,"se_kp":0.096337,"t_cs":-1.569173,"t_bmp":-1.946432,"patell_z":-2.208012,"corrado_z":-4.058348}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 0 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.00, 0.95]; exact one-sided p = 1.000; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 1.000. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"p_exact":1,"p_magnitude":1,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2026-06-05","move":-0.025809,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 242 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 20 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.011]; 90th percentile lag 28 days; longest 37 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.011056],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":242,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.011056],"median_lag":20,"p90_lag":27.9,"max_lag":37,"filings":23,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":221,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 23% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBA; jurisdiction sectors Financials, Real Estate. Dollar share 0.021 (identified set [0.008, 0.057], bootstrap 0.011-0.039); benchmarks S&P 500 0.212, congressional peers 0.232.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.210998,"ci":[-0.220764,-0.192344],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":240,"in_jurisdiction_trades":18,"share":0.020557,"share_bounds":[0.007653,0.056708],"share_ci":[0.010791,0.039212],"benchmark_sp500":0.211881,"benchmark_peers":0.231555,"excess":-0.210998,"excess_ci":[-0.220764,-0.192344],"committees":["HSBA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Financials","Real Estate"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"12 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 9 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"12 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 9 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"n_other":209,"trade_dates":9,"events":2150}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2025-06-03 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2025-06-03","changepoint_LR":19.828917,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.011905,"tradeday_rate_after":0.177966}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 19% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0170, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.016991,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.186567,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"22 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 12 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.55, Clopper-Pearson [0.35, 0.73], exact one-sided p = 0.416; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.545455,"ci":[0.352544,0.728687],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.415906,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":22,"hits":12,"hit_rate":0.545455,"ci":[0.352544,0.728687],"priced":225,"share_followed":0.097778}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"49% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 44%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.487; circular-shift null mean 0.437, 95th pct 0.569, p = 0.250. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0124, p = 0.680.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.4875,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.679677,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.466667,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":240,"cotraded_share":0.4875,"null_mean":0.436616,"null_p95":0.56875,"excess_p":0.25,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.466667,"excess_p_wo_top":0.31,"cotraded_car":-0.012382,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.056888,0.032123],"cotraded_car_p":0.679677}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"12 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +5.42% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0542 [-0.1206, 0.2289], t_KP = 0.15, over 8 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +1.46% (win rate 20%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.054172,"ci":[-0.120593,0.228938],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.442095,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":12,"share_in_round_trips":0.1,"priced":10,"realized_mean":0.014603,"realized_win_rate":0.2,"opening_car":0.054172,"ci":[-0.120593,0.228938],"p":0.442095,"openings_priced":8}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2026-06-05","event_date":"2026-06-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.58,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}