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Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20019752-014","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019752.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-10-04","filed":"2021-11-04","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"Verizon Communications Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019752-016","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019752.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.033502},{"date":"2021-10-04","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc.","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.008741},{"date":"2021-10-04","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"AAL","issuer":"American Airlines Group, Inc.","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.079671},{"date":"2021-10-04","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"BA","issuer":"Boeing Company","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-044","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.007187},{"date":"2021-10-04","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"FDX","issuer":"FedEx Corporation","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-082","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.000065},{"date":"2021-10-04","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"LUV","issuer":"Southwest Airlines Company","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-101","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.078532},{"date":"2021-10-04","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"SQ","issuer":"Square, Inc. Class A","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-102","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-10-04","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"TWTR","issuer":"Twitter, Inc.","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-103","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-10-04","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"DIS","issuer":"Walt Disney Company","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-114","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.016162},{"date":"2021-10-18","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"CVX","issuer":"Chevron Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-055","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.015852},{"date":"2021-10-18","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"CRWD","issuer":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. - Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-061","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.04607},{"date":"2021-10-26","filed":"2021-11-04","ticker":"PYPL","issuer":"PayPal Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019752-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019752.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.075582},{"date":"2021-10-26","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc.","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.026912},{"date":"2021-10-26","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"PYPL","issuer":"PayPal Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-096","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.075582},{"date":"2021-11-15","filed":"2021-12-29","ticker":"PYPL","issuer":"PayPal Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020096-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20020096.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.113695},{"date":"2021-11-15","filed":"2021-12-29","ticker":"PYPL","issuer":"PayPal Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020096-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20020096.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.113695},{"date":"2021-11-19","filed":"2021-11-30","ticker":"PYPL","issuer":"PayPal Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019902-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019902.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.017814},{"date":"2021-11-19","filed":"2021-11-30","ticker":"LUV","issuer":"Southwest Airlines Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019902-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019902.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.03688},{"date":"2021-11-19","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"TWTR","issuer":"Twitter, Inc.","asset_type":"option","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-104","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-11-19","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"TWTR","issuer":"Twitter, Inc.","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-105","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-11-19","filed":"2022-05-14","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"Verizon Communications Inc.","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20020983-113","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020983.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.021438},{"date":"2021-11-30","filed":"2021-12-29","ticker":"ORCC","issuer":"Owl Rock Capital Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020096-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20020096.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-12-16","filed":"2022-01-28","ticker":"TWTR","issuer":"Twitter, Inc.","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020143-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020143.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-12-16","filed":"2022-01-28","ticker":"TWTR","issuer":"Twitter, Inc.","asset_type":"option","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020143-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020143.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-01-07","filed":"2022-02-08","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"Verizon Communications Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[250001,500000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020374-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020374.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.013825},{"date":"2022-01-19","filed":"2022-02-08","ticker":"TWTR","issuer":"Twitter, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020374-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020374.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-01-24","filed":"2022-02-08","ticker":"TWTR","issuer":"Twitter, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020374-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020374.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-10-31","filed":"2022-12-01","ticker":"TWTR","issuer":"Twitter, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20021950-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021950.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"50% of 193 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.503, 90% Wilson [0.444, 0.561]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.502591,"ci":[0.443767,0.561343],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":193,"lowest_band_share":0.502591,"lowest_band_ci":[0.443767,0.561343],"share_over_50k":0.435233,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":1,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"23 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 11 and trading spans 61% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.088 (identified set [0.064, 0.145]); trade-count HHI 0.059 vs. 95th percentile 0.009 of 193 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.61 [0.56, 0.66]. Top three issuers (AAPL, MSFT, FDX) carry at least 23% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":11.336515,"ci":[6.886101,15.541393],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":193,"issuers":23,"hhi_mid":0.088211,"hhi_bounds":[0.064344,0.14522],"n_eff":11.336515,"hhi_count":0.059465,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.008838,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.614374,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.556138,0.659511],"top3_share_lower":0.23174,"top3":["AAPL","MSFT","FDX"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"36% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 39% of trades look routine; 0.5% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.0%).","detail":"Batch-day share 16/45, Wilson [0.25, 0.48]; index of dispersion 9.30 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.39 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.005 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.060, p = 0.976.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.355556,"ci":[0.249458,0.478037],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.976,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":193,"trade_days":45,"batch_share_trades":0.777202,"batch_day_share":0.355556,"batch_day_ci":[0.249458,0.478037],"dispersion_index":9.302622,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.388601,"proximity_share":0.005181,"proximity_null_mean":0.059954,"proximity_null_p95":0.129534,"proximity_p":0.976,"proximity_nonroutine":0.008475,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 172 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.88% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0188; 90% KP interval [-0.0233, 0.0609]; t_BMP = 2.29, r-bar = 0.058, t_KP = 0.68, Patell Z = 2.06, Corrado Z = 1.38. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0286, 0.0368]. Calendar-time alpha 11.69%/yr (NW t = 0.86, 253 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.018809,"ci":[-0.023293,0.060912],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.250182,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.004289},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.026665},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.021844},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.018809},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.036847},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.116943}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":172,"theta":0.018809,"ci":[-0.023293,0.060912],"p":0.250182,"t_kp":0.675351,"rbar":0.057703,"se_cs":0.007497,"se_kp":0.025458,"t_cs":2.509081,"t_bmp":2.293482,"patell_z":2.06401,"corrado_z":1.384169,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.028554,0.036847],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000464,"se":0.000538,"days":253,"t":0.862366,"p_one_sided":0.194243},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000426,0.001354],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":172,"theta":0.004289,"ci":[-0.014872,0.02345],"p":0.332521,"t_kp":0.433715,"rbar":0.057703,"se_cs":0.003412,"se_kp":0.011586,"t_cs":1.25717,"t_bmp":1.472891,"patell_z":1.357636,"corrado_z":1.37494},"21":{"n":172,"theta":0.018809,"ci":[-0.023293,0.060912],"p":0.250182,"t_kp":0.675351,"rbar":0.057703,"se_cs":0.007497,"se_kp":0.025458,"t_cs":2.509081,"t_bmp":2.293482,"patell_z":2.06401,"corrado_z":1.384169},"63":{"n":172,"theta":0.026665,"ci":[-0.060459,0.113789],"p":0.336732,"t_kp":0.422124,"rbar":0.057703,"se_cs":0.015513,"se_kp":0.052681,"t_cs":1.718932,"t_bmp":1.433526,"patell_z":1.498118,"corrado_z":0.527243}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.498. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.4981,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2022-01-28","move":0.024835,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"36 of 78 trades (46.2%) were disclosed late; median lag 58 days. Another 4 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.462, Wilson [0.372, 0.554]; 90th percentile lag 114 days; longest 170 days. Late-minus-timely signed CAR 0.0560, p = 0.014.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.461538,"ci":[0.371543,0.554113],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.014,"p_holm":0.14,"q_bh":0.168,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.512821,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":78,"amendment_rows_excluded":118,"late":36,"late_from_trade":40,"excused_by_notification":4,"late_share":0.461538,"late_ci":[0.371543,0.554113],"median_lag":58,"p90_lag":114,"max_lag":170,"filings":11,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":142,"timely_priced":30,"late_priced_dates":31,"late_minus_timely_car":0.056043,"late_minus_timely_ci":[0.016735,0.088261],"late_minus_timely_p":0.014}},{"id":"T8","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"26% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 7% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HLIG, HSAS, HSGO; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, IT Consulting & Other Services, Systems Software. Dollar share 0.255 (identified set [0.129, 0.441], bootstrap 0.167-0.376); benchmarks S&P 500 0.048, congressional peers 0.071.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.183793,"ci":[0.095751,0.304356],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":172,"in_jurisdiction_trades":33,"share":0.255095,"share_bounds":[0.128694,0.44058],"share_ci":[0.167052,0.375658],"benchmark_sp500":0.047525,"benchmark_peers":0.071302,"excess":0.183793,"excess_ci":[0.095751,0.304356],"committees":["HLIG","HSAS","HSGO"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","IT Consulting & Other Services","Systems Software"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"23 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +1.75% in the trade's favour, -0.15% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = 0.0175; pre-event minus other trades = -0.0015 [-0.0266, 0.0278], p = 0.546; mean pre-trade drift psi = -0.0191.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":-0.00151,"ci":[-0.026584,0.027764],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.546,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.848154,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.008965},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.004839},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.005599},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"n_other":149,"theta9":0.017501,"diff":-0.00151,"ci":[-0.026584,0.027764],"p":0.546,"pre_trade_drift":-0.019135,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":406,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":292,"became_law":43,"committee_reported":41,"committee_markup":30},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.133721,"trade_dates":12,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2021-07-29, trading ran at 0.14 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2021-07-29, trading ran at 0.14 times its earlier rate. Change point 2022-01-25 (p = 0.002).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":0.135888,"ci":[0.100929,0.18103],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Campaign Legal Center complaints over late disclosure of up to $22 million in trades","url":"https://www.forbes.com/sites/graisondangor/2021/07/29/3-members-of-congress-failed-to-properly-disclose-up-to-22-million-of-stock-trades-watchdog-says/"},{"title":"Insider investigation of STOCK Act violations names 14 members","url":"https://www.thedailybeast.com/stock-act-was-violated-by-14-members-of-congress-report-says"},{"title":"OCE finds substantial reason to believe STOCK Act was violated","url":"https://news4jax.com/news/local/2022/06/01/ethics-office-finds-substantial-reason-to-believe-congressmen-rutherford-fallon-violated-stock-act"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2022-01-25","changepoint_LR":41.032077,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.163569,"tradeday_rate_after":0.005,"scrutiny_date":"2021-07-29","rate_ratio":0.135888,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.100929,0.18103]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 90% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0188, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.018809,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.895522,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson [0.10, 0.90], exact one-sided p = 0.688; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.097611,0.902389],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.6875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":4,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.097611,0.902389],"priced":172,"share_followed":0.023256}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"21% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 21%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.207; circular-shift null mean 0.212, 95th pct 0.280, p = 0.580. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0208, p = 0.282.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.207254,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.282489,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.202073,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":193,"cotraded_share":0.207254,"null_mean":0.212226,"null_p95":0.280311,"excess_p":0.58,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.202073,"excess_p_wo_top":0.47,"cotraded_car":0.020768,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.037875,0.079411],"cotraded_car_p":0.282489}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"56 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +0.18% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0018 [-0.0516, 0.0551], t_KP = 0.02, over 49 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +1.86% (win rate 57%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.001775,"ci":[-0.051594,0.055144],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.49346,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":56,"share_in_round_trips":0.580311,"priced":28,"realized_mean":0.018592,"realized_win_rate":0.571429,"opening_car":0.001775,"ci":[-0.051594,0.055144],"p":0.49346,"openings_priced":49}},{"id":"T16","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"91 option trades (46% of all reported trades); the underlying moved +3.82% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"91 option trades (46% of all reported trades); the underlying moved +3.82% in the trade's favour over a month.","estimate":{"label":"Option-trade signed CAR","value":0.038192,"ci":[-0.002992,0.079376],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.054597,"p_holm":0.491371,"q_bh":0.42628,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":91,"option_share":0.464286,"option_car":0.038192,"option_ci":[-0.002992,0.079376],"option_p":0.054597,"priced":83}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2022-01-28","event_date":"2022-01-28","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.48,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}