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Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035450-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035450.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.02463},{"date":"2026-08-20","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035450-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035450.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.003358},{"date":"2026-08-20","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"JPM","issuer":"JP Morgan Chase & Co. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035450-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035450.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001919},{"date":"2026-08-20","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"JPM","issuer":"JP Morgan Chase & Co. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035450-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035450.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001919},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"ACN","issuer":"Accenture plc Class A Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035450-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035450.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.048086},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"ACN","issuer":"Accenture plc Class A Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035450-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035450.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.048086},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"LSYIX","issuer":"Lord Abbett Short Duration High Yield I (LSYIX) bond Fund","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20035450-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035450.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"MCD","issuer":"McDonald's Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035450-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035450.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.012193},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"NVO","issuer":"Novo Nordisk A/S Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035450-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035450.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002184},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"PEP","issuer":"Pepsico, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035450-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035450.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.012492},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"PEP","issuer":"Pepsico, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035450-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035450.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.012492}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"56% of 243 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.560, 90% Wilson [0.507, 0.611]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.559671,"ci":[0.506917,0.61111],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":243,"lowest_band_share":0.559671,"lowest_band_ci":[0.506917,0.61111],"share_over_50k":0.17284,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":15,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"57 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 5 and trading spans 69% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.201 (identified set [0.060, 0.501]); trade-count HHI 0.024 vs. 95th percentile 0.008 of 243 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.69 [0.39, 0.84]. Top three issuers (BRP, BWIN, FBKWX) carry at least 32% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":4.967138,"ci":[1.995182,16.712769],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":243,"issuers":57,"hhi_mid":0.201323,"hhi_bounds":[0.059834,0.501207],"n_eff":4.967138,"hhi_count":0.023591,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.007777,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.687544,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.394906,0.839176],"top3_share_lower":0.320763,"top3":["BRP","BWIN","FBKWX"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"40% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 24% of trades look routine; 6.2% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.2%).","detail":"Batch-day share 14/35, Wilson [0.28, 0.54]; index of dispersion 16.65 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.24 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.062 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.062, p = 0.512.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.4,"ci":[0.27575,0.538601],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.512,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.903901,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":243,"trade_days":35,"batch_share_trades":0.786008,"batch_day_share":0.4,"batch_day_ci":[0.27575,0.538601],"dispersion_index":16.64809,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.238683,"proximity_share":0.061728,"proximity_null_mean":0.062149,"proximity_null_p95":0.111111,"proximity_p":0.512,"proximity_nonroutine":0.064865,"proximity_routine":0.051724}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 213 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.37% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0137; 90% KP interval [-0.0095, 0.0369]; t_BMP = 2.66, r-bar = 0.036, t_KP = 0.89, Patell Z = 2.84, Corrado Z = 1.54. Dollar-weighted identified set [0.0077, 0.0586]. Calendar-time alpha 8.89%/yr (NW t = 0.49, 340 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.013728,"ci":[-0.009491,0.036946],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.313338,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.00398},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.027224},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.00975},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.012685},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.058648},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.088915}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":213,"theta":0.013728,"ci":[-0.009491,0.036946],"p":0.18827,"t_kp":0.886151,"rbar":0.036129,"se_cs":0.004689,"se_kp":0.014054,"t_cs":2.927704,"t_bmp":2.656083,"patell_z":2.837658,"corrado_z":1.53539,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[0.007669,0.058648],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000353,"se":0.000725,"days":340,"t":0.486411,"p_one_sided":0.313338},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000846,0.001551],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":213,"theta":0.00398,"ci":[-0.008002,0.015963],"p":0.384043,"t_kp":0.295258,"rbar":0.036129,"se_cs":0.00242,"se_kp":0.007253,"t_cs":1.644878,"t_bmp":0.884985,"patell_z":0.950088,"corrado_z":-0.889977},"21":{"n":213,"theta":0.013728,"ci":[-0.009491,0.036946],"p":0.18827,"t_kp":0.886151,"rbar":0.036129,"se_cs":0.004689,"se_kp":0.014054,"t_cs":2.927704,"t_bmp":2.656083,"patell_z":2.837658,"corrado_z":1.53539},"63":{"n":202,"theta":0.027224,"ci":[-0.008497,0.062944],"p":0.183187,"t_kp":0.905332,"rbar":0.036129,"se_cs":0.007383,"se_kp":0.021617,"t_cs":3.687146,"t_bmp":2.650575,"patell_z":2.432444,"corrado_z":2.165034}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 4 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.25, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.01, 0.75]; exact one-sided p = 0.938; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.938. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.25,"ci":[0.012741,0.751395],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.9375,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":4,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.25,"ci":[0.012741,0.751395],"p_exact":0.9375,"p_magnitude":0.9381,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2022-09-13","move":-0.043482,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":12,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-08-05","move":-0.029124,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":28,"post_news_trades":60,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-08-08","move":0.023117,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":88,"post_news_trades":4,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-03","move":-0.049281,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"documentary","summary":"Trading arrangement: discretion with an adviser or trustee.","detail":"Trading arrangement: discretion with an adviser or trustee.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Said his broker made the 2024 transactions without telling him","url":"https://huntrjay.substack.com/p/florida-franklin"}],"stats":{"arrangement":{"member_id":"F000472","discretion":"adviser","blind_trust":"false","consulted":"false","source_url":"https://huntrjay.substack.com/p/florida-franklin","note":"Said his broker made the 2024 transactions without telling him"}}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"35 of 265 trades (13.2%) were disclosed late; median lag 25 days. Another 3 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.132, Wilson [0.102, 0.170]; 90th percentile lag 330 days; longest 520 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.132075,"ci":[0.101554,0.170033],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.143396,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":265,"amendment_rows_excluded":1,"late":35,"late_from_trade":38,"excused_by_notification":3,"late_share":0.132075,"late_ci":[0.101554,0.170033],"median_lag":25,"p90_lag":330,"max_lag":520,"filings":21,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":31,"timely_priced":182,"late_priced_dates":3}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"4% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 11% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAP, HSSY; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Biotechnology, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors. Dollar share 0.040 (identified set [0.014, 0.118], bootstrap 0.008-0.110); benchmarks S&P 500 0.081, congressional peers 0.109.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.068408,"ci":[-0.100762,0.001803],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":193,"in_jurisdiction_trades":13,"share":0.040158,"share_bounds":[0.013532,0.117615],"share_ci":[0.007804,0.110369],"benchmark_sp500":0.081188,"benchmark_peers":0.108566,"excess":-0.068408,"excess_ci":[-0.100762,0.001803],"committees":["HSAP","HSSY"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Biotechnology","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"13 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 5 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"13 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 5 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":13,"n_other":200,"trade_dates":5,"events":702}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2022-09-08 (permutation p = 0.008).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2022-09-08","changepoint_LR":13.790803,"changepoint_p":0.008,"tradeday_rate_before":0.002801,"tradeday_rate_after":0.03285}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 84% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0137, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.013728,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.843284,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"27 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 18 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.67, Clopper-Pearson [0.49, 0.81], exact one-sided p = 0.061; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.490522,0.81378],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.061039,"p_holm":0.488312,"q_bh":0.721154,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":27,"hits":18,"hit_rate":0.666667,"ci":[0.490522,0.81378],"priced":213,"share_followed":0.126761}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 20%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.169; circular-shift null mean 0.204, 95th pct 0.293, p = 0.780. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0243, p = 0.133.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.168724,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.133189,"p_holm":0.76261,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.160494,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":243,"cotraded_share":0.168724,"null_mean":0.204057,"null_p95":0.292593,"excess_p":0.78,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.160494,"excess_p_wo_top":0.73,"cotraded_car":0.024254,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.006864,0.055372],"cotraded_car_p":0.133189}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"26% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +1.70% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0170 [-0.0080, 0.0419], t_KP = 1.25; family minus self 0.0043 [-0.0085, 0.0165], p = 0.370.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.016955,"ci":[-0.008021,0.041931],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.10915,"p_holm":0.76261,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":62,"family_share":0.255144,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.016955,"family_ci":[-0.008021,0.041931],"diff":0.00427,"diff_ci":[-0.008507,0.016497],"diff_p":0.37}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"16 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +4.92% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0492 [-0.0090, 0.1074], t_KP = 1.29, over 16 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +5.02% (win rate 56%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.049208,"ci":[-0.008974,0.107389],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.108944,"p_holm":0.76261,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":16,"share_in_round_trips":0.131687,"priced":16,"realized_mean":0.050175,"realized_win_rate":0.5625,"opening_car":0.049208,"ci":[-0.008974,0.107389],"p":0.108944,"openings_priced":16}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2022-09-13","event_date":"2022-09-13","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.35,"trade":"12 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-08-05","event_date":"2024-08-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.91,"trade":"28 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-08-08","event_date":"2024-08-08","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.31,"trade":"88 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-03","event_date":"2025-04-03","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.93,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}