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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.921875,"ci":[0.848072,0.961456],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":64,"lowest_band_share":0.921875,"lowest_band_ci":[0.848072,0.961456],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":4,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"45 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 15 and trading spans 84% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.065 (identified set [0.023, 0.362]); trade-count HHI 0.028 vs. 95th percentile 0.021 of 64 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.84 [0.77, 0.91]. Top three issuers (T, MS, KMI) carry at least 7% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":15.343747,"ci":[2.764566,43.757223],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":64,"issuers":45,"hhi_mid":0.065173,"hhi_bounds":[0.022853,0.36172],"n_eff":15.343747,"hhi_count":0.02832,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.020508,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.838059,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.773655,0.906699],"top3_share_lower":0.072458,"top3":["T","MS","KMI"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"42% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 6.2% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.9%).","detail":"Batch-day share 8/19, Wilson [0.26, 0.61]; index of dispersion 11.56 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.062 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.059, p = 0.428.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.421053,"ci":[0.256303,0.605484],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.428,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.827081,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":64,"trade_days":19,"batch_share_trades":0.796875,"batch_day_share":0.421053,"batch_day_ci":[0.256303,0.605484],"dispersion_index":11.559609,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.0625,"proximity_null_mean":0.059306,"proximity_null_p95":0.140625,"proximity_p":0.428,"proximity_nonroutine":0.0625,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 62 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.39% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0039; 90% KP interval [-0.0221, 0.0298]; t_BMP = 0.27, r-bar = 0.016, t_KP = 0.19, Patell Z = 0.27, Corrado Z = -0.50. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0796, 0.0637]. Calendar-time alpha 22.15%/yr (NW t = 0.74, 279 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.003887,"ci":[-0.022075,0.029848],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.426158,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000218},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.01294},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.010371},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":0.072979},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.063716},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.221495}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":62,"theta":0.003887,"ci":[-0.022075,0.029848],"p":0.426158,"t_kp":0.186954,"rbar":0.016341,"se_cs":0.01091,"se_kp":0.015544,"t_cs":0.356256,"t_bmp":0.266369,"patell_z":0.265732,"corrado_z":-0.497378,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.079568,0.063716],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000879,"se":0.001193,"days":279,"t":0.736475,"p_one_sided":0.230721},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001114,0.002872],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":62,"theta":-0.000218,"ci":[-0.010961,0.010525],"p":0.489154,"t_kp":0.027301,"rbar":0.016341,"se_cs":0.004514,"se_kp":0.006432,"t_cs":-0.048213,"t_bmp":0.038898,"patell_z":0.028292,"corrado_z":-0.644947},"21":{"n":62,"theta":0.003887,"ci":[-0.022075,0.029848],"p":0.426158,"t_kp":0.186954,"rbar":0.016341,"se_cs":0.01091,"se_kp":0.015544,"t_cs":0.356256,"t_bmp":0.266369,"patell_z":0.265732,"corrado_z":-0.497378},"63":{"n":62,"theta":-0.01294,"ci":[-0.062259,0.036379],"p":0.743678,"t_kp":-0.65858,"rbar":0.016341,"se_cs":0.020725,"se_kp":0.029528,"t_cs":-0.624377,"t_bmp":-0.938333,"patell_z":-0.991304,"corrado_z":-0.650938}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 0 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.00, 0.63]; exact one-sided p = 1.000; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 1.000. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.631597],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":3,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.631597],"p_exact":1,"p_magnitude":1,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2020-02-24","move":-0.033166,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-25","move":-0.030302,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-27","move":-0.044912,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: discretion with an adviser or trustee; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: discretion with an adviser or trustee; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,4.041348],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Office: the trades are by a family trust for his wife in which he has no decision-making role (2026-08-17)","url":"https://mississippitoday.org/2026/08/17/michael-guest-stock-act-violation/"}],"stats":{"arrangement":{"member_id":"G000591","discretion":"trustee","blind_trust":"false","consulted":"","source_url":"https://mississippitoday.org/2026/08/17/michael-guest-stock-act-violation/","note":"Office: the trades are by a family trust for his wife in which he has no decision-making role (2026-08-17)"},"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,4.041348],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,14.402439],"absence_days":18,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 92 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 26 days. Another 5 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.029]; 90th percentile lag 43 days; longest 285 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.028568],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.054348,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":92,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":5,"excused_by_notification":5,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.028568],"median_lag":26.5,"p90_lag":43,"max_lag":285,"filings":20,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":62,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 8% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAP, HSHM, HSSO; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Application Software, Systems Software. Dollar share 0.034 (identified set [0.003, 0.263], bootstrap 0.000-0.107); benchmarks S&P 500 0.067, congressional peers 0.075.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.041527,"ci":[-0.075107,0.032293],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":59,"in_jurisdiction_trades":3,"share":0.03358,"share_bounds":[0.00295,0.263072],"share_ci":[0,0.1074],"benchmark_sp500":0.067327,"benchmark_peers":0.075107,"excess":-0.041527,"excess_ci":[-0.075107,0.032293],"committees":["HSAP","HSHM","HSSO"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Application Software","Systems Software"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 62 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 62 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":62,"events":1376}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"documentary","summary":"Scrutiny on 2026-08-17 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","detail":"Scrutiny on 2026-08-17 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"NOTUS: House Ethics chair's family trust sales disclosed late","url":"https://mississippitoday.org/2026/08/17/michael-guest-stock-act-violation/"}],"stats":{"scrutiny_date":"2026-08-17","changepoint":"2022-12-21","changepoint_LR":8.778296,"changepoint_p":0.062,"tradeday_rate_before":0.004065,"tradeday_rate_after":0.02005}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 67% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0039, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.003887,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.671642,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"6 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 3 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson [0.15, 0.85], exact one-sided p = 0.656; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.153161,0.846839],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.65625,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":6,"hits":3,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.153161,0.846839],"priced":62,"share_followed":0.096774}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"9% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 16%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.094; circular-shift null mean 0.157, 95th pct 0.298, p = 0.870. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0172, p = 0.703.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.09375,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.703293,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.09375,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":64,"cotraded_share":0.09375,"null_mean":0.156881,"null_p95":0.298437,"excess_p":0.87,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.09375,"excess_p_wo_top":0.9,"cotraded_car":-0.01716,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.147374,0.113055],"cotraded_car_p":0.703293}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"95% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +0.04% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0004 [-0.0261, 0.0269], t_KP = -0.10; family minus self -0.0726 [-0.0903, -0.0456], p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.000373,"ci":[-0.026118,0.026865],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.540206,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":61,"family_share":0.953125,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.000373,"family_ci":[-0.026118,0.026865],"diff":-0.072606,"diff_ci":[-0.090287,-0.045643],"diff_p":1}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-24","event_date":"2020-02-24","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.32,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-25","event_date":"2020-02-25","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.03,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-27","event_date":"2020-02-27","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.49,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}