{"id":"G000598","trades":[{"date":"2022-01-25","filed":"2022-02-23","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020121-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020121.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.04606},{"date":"2022-02-23","filed":"2022-02-23","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020121-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020121.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.072528},{"date":"2022-07-12","filed":"2022-08-23","ticker":"TXT","issuer":"Textron Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021522-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021522.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.000204},{"date":"2022-08-12","filed":"2022-08-23","ticker":"AMC","issuer":"AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021587-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021587.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.258491},{"date":"2022-09-29","filed":"2022-10-25","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021895-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021895.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.179513},{"date":"2022-12-20","filed":"2023-01-26","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022325-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022325.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.171545},{"date":"2023-06-08","filed":"2023-06-20","ticker":"GLD","issuer":"SPDR Gold Trust","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023182-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.011989},{"date":"2023-06-08","filed":"2023-06-20","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023182-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.04336},{"date":"2023-06-12","filed":"2023-06-20","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023182-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.08429},{"date":"2023-08-17","filed":"2023-08-17","ticker":null,"issuer":"3 Month T bond","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20023553-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023553.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2023-08-17","filed":"2023-08-17","ticker":null,"issuer":"6 Month Bond","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20023553-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023553.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2023-12-04","filed":"2023-12-07","ticker":null,"issuer":"3 month USG bond","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[250001,500000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20024110-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20024110.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-03-08","filed":"2024-03-12","ticker":null,"issuer":"3 Month Bond","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[250001,500000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20024673-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024673.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-07-30","filed":"2024-08-09","ticker":null,"issuer":"3 Month USG Bond","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[250001,500000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20025632-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025632.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"Only 9 directional trades; too few for a size reading.","detail":"Only 9 directional trades; too few for a size reading.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":9}},{"id":"T2","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"Only 9 directional trades; too few for a concentration reading.","detail":"Only 9 directional trades; too few for a concentration reading.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":9}},{"id":"T3","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"Only 9 directional trades; too few for a cadence reading.","detail":"Only 9 directional trades; too few for a cadence reading.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":9}},{"id":"T4","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"Abnormal returns were not computed (daily prices unavailable or too few priced trades).","detail":"Abnormal returns were not computed (daily prices unavailable or too few priced trades).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":9}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.508. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.5077,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2022-01-28","move":0.024835,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 14 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 10 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.162]; 90th percentile lag 35 days; longest 42 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.161955],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.161955],"median_lag":10.5,"p90_lag":34.6,"max_lag":42,"filings":10,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":9,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"Only 9 directional trades; too few for a committee-overlap reading.","detail":"Only 9 directional trades; too few for a committee-overlap reading.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":9}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 9 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 9 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":9,"events":1488}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"Only 9 directional trades.","detail":"Only 9 directional trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T11","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"Requires T4 for every member; computed in the cross-member pass.","detail":"Requires T4 for every member; computed in the cross-member pass.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson [0.10, 0.90], exact one-sided p = 0.688; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.097611,0.902389],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.6875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":4,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.097611,0.902389],"priced":9,"share_followed":0.444444}},{"id":"T13","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"Only 9 directional trades.","detail":"Only 9 directional trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":9}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"Only 9 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","detail":"Only 9 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"Only 9 directional trades.","detail":"Only 9 directional trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2022-01-28","event_date":"2022-01-28","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.48,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}