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Services","late":false,"trade_id":"SQH000273-20260106-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.063764},{"date":"2026-01-14","filed":"2026-02-06","ticker":"UBER","issuer":"UBER","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQH000273-20260206-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026031},{"date":"2026-01-14","filed":"2026-02-06","ticker":"LOW","issuer":"LOW","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQH000273-20260206-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.008783},{"date":"2026-01-14","filed":"2026-02-06","ticker":"TJX","issuer":"TJX","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQH000273-20260206-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014381},{"date":"2026-01-14","filed":"2026-02-06","ticker":"ETN","issuer":"ETN","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQH000273-20260206-004","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.015693},{"date":"2026-02-05","filed":"2026-03-04","ticker":"SIRI","issuer":"SIRI","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"SQH000273-20260304-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.025249}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17% of 119 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.168, 90% Wilson [0.119, 0.232]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.02 (within-issuer permutation p = 0.494); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.168067,"ci":[0.119208,0.231684],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.494,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":119,"lowest_band_share":0.168067,"lowest_band_ci":[0.119208,0.231684],"share_over_50k":0.605042,"max_z":1.637329,"size_gap":0.018589,"size_gap_p":0.494,"event_linked":3,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"45 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 10 and trading spans 59% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.103 (identified set [0.061, 0.182]); trade-count HHI 0.068 vs. 95th percentile 0.013 of 119 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.59 [0.50, 0.71]. Top three issuers (FWONK, LBRDK, LSXMK) carry at least 30% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":9.739319,"ci":[5.481453,16.401608],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":119,"issuers":45,"hhi_mid":0.102677,"hhi_bounds":[0.06097,0.182433],"n_eff":9.739319,"hhi_count":0.068286,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.01264,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.590933,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.503692,0.710878],"top3_share_lower":0.302749,"top3":["FWONK","LBRDK","LSXMK"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"14% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 7% of trades look routine; 2.5% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 3.5%).","detail":"Batch-day share 8/59, Wilson [0.08, 0.23]; index of dispersion 3.37 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.07 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.025 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.035, p = 0.682.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.135593,"ci":[0.078125,0.225017],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.682,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":119,"trade_days":59,"batch_share_trades":0.327731,"batch_day_share":0.135593,"batch_day_ci":[0.078125,0.225017],"dispersion_index":3.365847,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.067227,"proximity_share":0.02521,"proximity_null_mean":0.034759,"proximity_null_p95":0.07563,"proximity_p":0.682,"proximity_nonroutine":0.027027,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 69 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.25% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0025; 90% KP interval [-0.0654, 0.0604]; t_BMP = -0.20, r-bar = 0.111, t_KP = -0.06, Patell Z = -0.20, Corrado Z = -0.73. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0464, 0.0089]. Calendar-time alpha -21.76%/yr (NW t = -1.15, 490 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002501,"ci":[-0.065446,0.060443],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.875931,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000765},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.015622},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.0058},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.008891},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.21758}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":69,"theta":-0.002501,"ci":[-0.065446,0.060443],"p":0.525754,"t_kp":-0.06484,"rbar":0.111259,"se_cs":0.012159,"se_kp":0.037746,"t_cs":-0.205734,"t_bmp":-0.201297,"patell_z":-0.203454,"corrado_z":-0.72712,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.046415,0.008891],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000863,"se":0.000748,"days":490,"t":-1.154883,"p_one_sided":0.875931},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.00211,0.000383],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":69,"theta":-0.000765,"ci":[-0.030313,0.028783],"p":0.540824,"t_kp":-0.102892,"rbar":0.111259,"se_cs":0.005708,"se_kp":0.017719,"t_cs":-0.133975,"t_bmp":-0.319427,"patell_z":-0.298482,"corrado_z":-0.634887},"21":{"n":69,"theta":-0.002501,"ci":[-0.065446,0.060443],"p":0.525754,"t_kp":-0.06484,"rbar":0.111259,"se_cs":0.012159,"se_kp":0.037746,"t_cs":-0.205734,"t_bmp":-0.201297,"patell_z":-0.203454,"corrado_z":-0.72712},"63":{"n":68,"theta":0.015622,"ci":[-0.089863,0.121107],"p":0.411227,"t_kp":0.225272,"rbar":0.111259,"se_cs":0.020505,"se_kp":0.063244,"t_cs":0.761838,"t_bmp":0.6948,"patell_z":0.628033,"corrado_z":0.16457}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.502. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.5021,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2022-05-18","move":-0.040312,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":8,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"18 of 121 trades (14.9%) were disclosed late; median lag 27 days.","detail":"Late share 0.149, Wilson [0.103, 0.210]; 90th percentile lag 91 days; longest 455 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.14876,"ci":[0.103258,0.209626],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":121,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":18,"late_from_trade":18,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.14876,"late_ci":[0.103258,0.209626],"median_lag":27,"p90_lag":91,"max_lag":455,"filings":30,"late_filings":4,"late_priced":3,"timely_priced":66,"late_priced_dates":3}},{"id":"T8","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"61% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 38% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SSCM, SSEG, SSHR, SSSB; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Air Freight & Logistics, Automobile Manufacturers, Cargo Ground Transportation, Communication Services, Copper, Energy, Gold, Health Care, Human Resource & Employment Services, Interactive Media & Services, Passenger Airlines, Rail Transportation, Regional Banks, Semiconductors, Timber REITs, Utilities. Dollar share 0.608 (identified set [0.406, 0.778], bootstrap 0.443-0.740); benchmarks S&P 500 0.374, congressional peers 0.384.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.224373,"ci":[0.059173,0.355817],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":82,"in_jurisdiction_trades":44,"share":0.608319,"share_bounds":[0.40622,0.777634],"share_ci":[0.443118,0.739762],"benchmark_sp500":0.374257,"benchmark_peers":0.383945,"excess":0.224373,"excess_ci":[0.059173,0.355817],"committees":["SSCM","SSEG","SSHR","SSSB"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Air Freight & Logistics","Automobile Manufacturers","Cargo Ground Transportation","Communication Services","Copper","Energy","Gold","Health Care","Human Resource & Employment Services","Interactive Media & Services","Passenger Airlines","Rail Transportation","Regional Banks","Semiconductors","Timber REITs","Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"33 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +0.02% in the trade's favour, +0.51% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = 0.0002; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0051 [-0.0404, 0.0348], p = 0.378; mean pre-trade drift psi = -0.0058.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.005124,"ci":[-0.040401,0.034778],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.378,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.848154,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.005124},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.005124},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.004653},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":33,"n_other":36,"theta9":0.000172,"diff":0.005124,"ci":[-0.040401,0.034778],"p":0.378,"pre_trade_drift":-0.005788,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":5604,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":2233,"committee_markup":1563,"committee_reported":1459,"became_law":349},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.478261,"trade_dates":18,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2023-06-12 (permutation p = 0.080).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2023-06-12","changepoint_LR":8.522828,"changepoint_p":0.08,"tradeday_rate_before":0.062802,"tradeday_rate_after":0.028818}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 48% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0025, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.002501,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.477612,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 3 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.60, Clopper-Pearson [0.19, 0.92], exact one-sided p = 0.500; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.6,"ci":[0.189255,0.92356],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":5,"hits":3,"hit_rate":0.6,"ci":[0.189255,0.92356],"priced":69,"share_followed":0.072464}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"10% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 8%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.101; circular-shift null mean 0.082, 95th pct 0.118, p = 0.270. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0421, p = 0.146.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.10084,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.146019,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.084034,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":119,"cotraded_share":0.10084,"null_mean":0.081572,"null_p95":0.117647,"excess_p":0.27,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.084034,"excess_p_wo_top":0.27,"cotraded_car":0.042146,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.058279,0.142571],"cotraded_car_p":0.146019}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"Only 1 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","detail":"Only 1 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"owner_unknown":118}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"27 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +1.67% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0167 [-0.0363, 0.0697], t_KP = 0.24, over 9 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +7.89% (win rate 40%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.016677,"ci":[-0.036334,0.069687],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.406922,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":27,"share_in_round_trips":0.453782,"priced":5,"realized_mean":0.078899,"realized_win_rate":0.4,"opening_car":0.016677,"ci":[-0.036334,0.069687],"p":0.406922,"openings_priced":9}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2022-05-18","event_date":"2022-05-18","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.03,"trade":"8 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}