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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030551-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.016922},{"date":"2025-06-23","filed":"2025-07-24","ticker":"RF","issuer":"Regions Financial Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030551-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.006186},{"date":"2025-06-23","filed":"2025-07-24","ticker":"SFNC","issuer":"Simmons First National Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030551-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.009202},{"date":"2025-06-23","filed":"2025-07-24","ticker":"SPB","issuer":"Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030551-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.007351},{"date":"2025-06-23","filed":"2025-07-24","ticker":"VTS","issuer":"Vitesse Energy, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030551-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.043047},{"date":"2025-06-23","filed":"2025-07-24","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030551-013","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.005378},{"date":"2025-06-23","filed":"2025-07-24","ticker":"WTM","issuer":"White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030551-014","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.002015},{"date":"2025-12-31","filed":"2026-01-23","ticker":"KD","issuer":"Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033661-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033661.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.022952},{"date":"2025-12-31","filed":"2026-01-23","ticker":"PFE","issuer":"Pfizer, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033661-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033661.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.011212},{"date":"2025-12-31","filed":"2026-01-23","ticker":"SFL","issuer":"SFL Corporation Ltd","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033661-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033661.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.062008},{"date":"2025-12-31","filed":"2026-01-23","ticker":"SOLV","issuer":"Solventum Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033661-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033661.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.068778}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"27% of 62 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.274, 90% Wilson [0.192, 0.375]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.274194,"ci":[0.191927,0.375344],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":62,"lowest_band_share":0.274194,"lowest_band_ci":[0.191927,0.375344],"share_over_50k":0.193548,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":1,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"44 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 22 and trading spans 52% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.046 (identified set [0.028, 0.085]); trade-count HHI 0.030 vs. 95th percentile 0.021 of 62 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.52 [0.35, 0.69]. Top three issuers (MKL, BX, PFE) carry at least 10% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":21.720351,"ci":[11.737629,35.250489],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":62,"issuers":44,"hhi_mid":0.04604,"hhi_bounds":[0.028368,0.085196],"n_eff":21.720351,"hhi_count":0.030177,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.021332,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.516043,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.3489,0.69081],"top3_share_lower":0.102011,"top3":["MKL","BX","PFE"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"35% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 1.6% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.7%).","detail":"Batch-day share 6/17, Wilson [0.19, 0.55]; index of dispersion 7.59 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.016 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.047, p = 0.914.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.352941,"ci":[0.19491,0.551354],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.914,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":62,"trade_days":17,"batch_share_trades":0.758065,"batch_day_share":0.352941,"batch_day_ci":[0.19491,0.551354],"dispersion_index":7.592105,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.016129,"proximity_null_mean":0.046965,"proximity_null_p95":0.112903,"proximity_p":0.914,"proximity_nonroutine":0.016129,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 54 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 3.19% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0319; 90% KP interval [-0.0932, 0.0293]; t_BMP = -2.82, r-bar = 0.163, t_KP = -0.83, Patell Z = -2.60, Corrado Z = -2.02. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0624, -0.0097]. Calendar-time alpha -16.39%/yr (NW t = -0.56, 256 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.031943,"ci":[-0.093159,0.029272],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.794793,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.00001},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.071731},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.021309},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.024042},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.009657},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.1639}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":54,"theta":-0.031943,"ci":[-0.093159,0.029272],"p":0.794793,"t_kp":-0.829729,"rbar":0.163134,"se_cs":0.01077,"se_kp":0.036566,"t_cs":-2.965895,"t_bmp":-2.816988,"patell_z":-2.597749,"corrado_z":-2.015557,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.062392,-0.009657],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.00065,"se":0.001156,"days":256,"t":-0.562832,"p_one_sided":0.713226},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.002585,0.001284],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":54,"theta":0.00001,"ci":[-0.023512,0.023532],"p":0.540067,"t_kp":-0.101083,"rbar":0.163134,"se_cs":0.004138,"se_kp":0.01405,"t_cs":0.002371,"t_bmp":-0.343184,"patell_z":-0.277816,"corrado_z":0.07802},"21":{"n":54,"theta":-0.031943,"ci":[-0.093159,0.029272],"p":0.794793,"t_kp":-0.829729,"rbar":0.163134,"se_cs":0.01077,"se_kp":0.036566,"t_cs":-2.965895,"t_bmp":-2.816988,"patell_z":-2.597749,"corrado_z":-2.015557},"63":{"n":54,"theta":-0.071731,"ci":[-0.232509,0.089046],"p":0.812481,"t_kp":-0.894614,"rbar":0.163134,"se_cs":0.028287,"se_kp":0.096037,"t_cs":-2.535817,"t_bmp":-3.037278,"patell_z":-3.18577,"corrado_z":-2.234054}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,32.326517],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,32.326517],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,125.833023],"absence_days":4,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 of 67 trades (1.5%) were disclosed late; median lag 30 days.","detail":"Late share 0.015, Wilson [0.003, 0.064]; 90th percentile lag 42 days; longest 103 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.014925,"ci":[0.003337,0.064169],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":67,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":1,"late_from_trade":1,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.014925,"late_ci":[0.003337,0.064169],"median_lag":30,"p90_lag":42,"max_lag":103,"filings":14,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":54,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"62% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 30% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HLIG, HSBA; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Financials, IT Consulting & Other Services, Real Estate, Systems Software. Dollar share 0.617 (identified set [0.369, 0.811], bootstrap 0.292-0.890); benchmarks S&P 500 0.259, congressional peers 0.303.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.31399,"ci":[-0.010576,0.58696],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"in_jurisdiction_trades":19,"share":0.616847,"share_bounds":[0.368832,0.810937],"share_ci":[0.292281,0.889817],"benchmark_sp500":0.259406,"benchmark_peers":0.302857,"excess":0.31399,"excess_ci":[-0.010576,0.58696],"committees":["HLIG","HSBA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Financials","IT Consulting & Other Services","Real Estate","Systems Software"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"19 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 7 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"19 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 7 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":19,"n_other":35,"trade_dates":7,"events":2271}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2016-08-31 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2016-08-31","changepoint_LR":20.598175,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.044444,"tradeday_rate_after":0.003695}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 8% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0319, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.031943,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.08209,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"9 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 4 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.44, Clopper-Pearson [0.17, 0.75], exact one-sided p = 0.746; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.444444,"ci":[0.16875,0.748632],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.746094,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":9,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.444444,"ci":[0.16875,0.748632],"priced":54,"share_followed":0.166667}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"6% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 8%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.065; circular-shift null mean 0.078, 95th pct 0.145, p = 0.710. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0056, p = 0.523.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.064516,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.523291,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.048387,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":62,"cotraded_share":0.064516,"null_mean":0.078364,"null_p95":0.145161,"excess_p":0.71,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.048387,"excess_p_wo_top":0.9,"cotraded_car":-0.005588,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.073401,0.062225],"cotraded_car_p":0.523291}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"26% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -5.45% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0545 [-0.1456, 0.0366], t_KP = -0.86; family minus self -0.0305 [-0.0718, 0.0149], p = 0.913.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.05452,"ci":[-0.145622,0.036582],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.79649,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.936795,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":16,"family_share":0.258065,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.05452,"family_ci":[-0.145622,0.036582],"diff":-0.030478,"diff_ci":[-0.071761,0.014859],"diff_p":0.913306}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}