{"id":"H001091","trades":[{"date":"2021-03-04","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-013","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.04529},{"date":"2021-03-05","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":null,"issuer":"High Street Insurance Partners","asset_type":"other","direction":"buy","amount":[250001,500000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-03-05","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":null,"issuer":"Transportation Insurance & Consultants, Inc. (d/b/a Elliott- Hartman Agency)","asset_type":"other","direction":"sell","amount":[1000001,null],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-014","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-03-08","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.008573},{"date":"2021-03-31","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":"BABA","issuer":"Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary Share","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.015922},{"date":"2021-03-31","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.033918},{"date":"2021-03-31","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.023927},{"date":"2021-03-31","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":"STZ","issuer":"Constellation Brands, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.048226},{"date":"2021-03-31","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":"GTN","issuer":"Gray Television, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.005667},{"date":"2021-03-31","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":"HRTX","issuer":"Heron Therapeutics, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.028156},{"date":"2021-03-31","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":"MCS","issuer":"Marcus Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.034134},{"date":"2021-03-31","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":"QCRH","issuer":"QCR Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.034767},{"date":"2021-03-31","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":"SHAK","issuer":"Shake Shack, Inc. Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.049058},{"date":"2021-03-31","filed":"2021-04-05","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018521-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018521.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.057789}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"92% of 12 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.917, 90% Wilson [0.699, 0.981]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.916667,"ci":[0.698832,0.981184],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"lowest_band_share":0.916667,"lowest_band_ci":[0.698832,0.981184],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":2,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"10 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 4 and trading spans 56% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.236 (identified set [0.100, 0.753]); trade-count HHI 0.111 vs. 95th percentile 0.097 of 12 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.008). Normalized sector entropy 0.56 [-0.00, 0.71]. Top three issuers (AMZN, TSLA, AAPL) carry at least 15% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":4.234647,"ci":[1.327937,9.996093],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"issuers":10,"hhi_mid":0.236147,"hhi_bounds":[0.100039,0.753048],"n_eff":4.234647,"hhi_count":0.111111,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.097222,"peer_benchmark_p":0.008,"sector_entropy":0.560809,"sector_entropy_ci":[0,0.705875],"top3_share_lower":0.15326,"top3":["AMZN","TSLA","AAPL"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"33% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 16.7% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 3.3%).","detail":"Batch-day share 1/3, Wilson [0.08, 0.75]; index of dispersion 8.32 (chi-square p = 6.2e-24); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.167 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.033, p = 0.176.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.333333,"ci":[0.078266,0.746466],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.176,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.591953,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"trade_days":3,"batch_share_trades":0.833333,"batch_day_share":0.333333,"batch_day_ci":[0.078266,0.746466],"dispersion_index":8.315789,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.166667,"proximity_null_mean":0.033233,"proximity_null_p95":0.166667,"proximity_p":0.176,"proximity_nonroutine":0.166667,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 12 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.60% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0260; 90% KP interval [-0.0245, 0.0766]; t_BMP = 1.03, r-bar = 0.025, t_KP = 0.90, Patell Z = 0.50, Corrado Z = 0.42. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0554, 0.0802].","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.026014,"ci":[-0.024538,0.076567],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.194714,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.011152},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.038859},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"not_assessed","value":-0.051243},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.080229}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"theta":0.026014,"ci":[-0.024538,0.076567],"p":0.194714,"t_kp":0.896024,"rbar":0.025096,"se_cs":0.024604,"se_kp":0.028149,"t_cs":1.057314,"t_bmp":1.025118,"patell_z":0.501582,"corrado_z":0.42371,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.055382,0.080229],"calendar_time":null,"calendar_alpha_ci":[null,null],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":12,"theta":0.011152,"ci":[-0.009917,0.03222],"p":0.236098,"t_kp":0.744474,"rbar":0.025096,"se_cs":0.010254,"se_kp":0.011732,"t_cs":1.087553,"t_bmp":0.851734,"patell_z":0.502862,"corrado_z":-0.186725},"21":{"n":12,"theta":0.026014,"ci":[-0.024538,0.076567],"p":0.194714,"t_kp":0.896024,"rbar":0.025096,"se_cs":0.024604,"se_kp":0.028149,"t_cs":1.057314,"t_bmp":1.025118,"patell_z":0.501582,"corrado_z":0.42371},"63":{"n":12,"theta":0.038859,"ci":[-0.132064,0.209781],"p":0.281279,"t_kp":0.597055,"rbar":0.025096,"se_cs":0.083189,"se_kp":0.095174,"t_cs":0.467114,"t_bmp":0.683076,"patell_z":0.537824,"corrado_z":0.029082}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 14 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 5 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.162]; 90th percentile lag 31 days; longest 32 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.161955],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.161955],"median_lag":5,"p90_lag":31,"max_lag":32,"filings":1,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":12,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"6% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 10% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAP, HSSO, HSZS; jurisdiction sectors Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors, Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals. Dollar share 0.055 (identified set [0.005, 0.375], bootstrap 0.000-0.182); benchmarks S&P 500 0.059, congressional peers 0.104.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.049027,"ci":[-0.104374,0.078119],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"in_jurisdiction_trades":1,"share":0.055347,"share_bounds":[0.00498,0.374897],"share_ci":[0,0.182493],"benchmark_sp500":0.059406,"benchmark_peers":0.104374,"excess":-0.049027,"excess_ci":[-0.104374,0.078119],"committees":["HSAP","HSSO","HSZS"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors","Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No legislative events tied to this member's committees.","detail":"No legislative events tied to this member's committees.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2021-03-09 (permutation p = 0.302).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2021-03-09","changepoint_LR":4.094433,"changepoint_p":0.302,"tradeday_rate_before":0.666667,"tradeday_rate_after":0.058824}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 93% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0260, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.026014,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.932836,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"2 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson [0.03, 0.97], exact one-sided p = 0.750; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.025321,0.974679],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.75,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":2,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.025321,0.974679],"priced":12,"share_followed":0.166667}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"33% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 33%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.333; circular-shift null mean 0.332, 95th pct 0.417, p = 0.800. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0158, p = 0.335.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.333333,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.33538,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.333333,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"cotraded_share":0.333333,"null_mean":0.332492,"null_p95":0.416667,"excess_p":0.8,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.333333,"excess_p_wo_top":0.82,"cotraded_car":0.015781,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.129404,0.160965],"cotraded_car_p":0.33538}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +2.60% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0260 [-0.0245, 0.0766], t_KP = 0.90.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.026014,"ci":[-0.024538,0.076567],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.194714,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":12,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.026014,"family_ci":[-0.024538,0.076567],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 round trips but fewer than three priced.","detail":"2 round trips but fewer than three priced.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":2,"share_in_round_trips":0.333333}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}