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Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-127","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.06797},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"SHEL","issuer":"Shell PLC American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-128","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.002786},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"SHW","issuer":"Sherwin-Williams Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-129","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.005124},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-130","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.016623},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"SO","issuer":"Southern Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-131","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.009128},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"SBUX","issuer":"Starbucks Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-133","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.01403},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":null,"issuer":"Synopsys, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-134","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"TSM","issuer":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-135","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.02312},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"TGT","issuer":"Target Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-136","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.035808},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-137","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.029616},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"BK","issuer":"The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-138","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"CI","issuer":"The Cigna Group Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-139","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001629},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"HIG","issuer":"The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-140","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.008174},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"TRV","issuer":"The Travelers Companies, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-141","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.006883},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"TMO","issuer":"Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-142","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.037679},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":null,"issuer":"Toll Brothers, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-143","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"TT","issuer":"Trane Technologies plc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-144","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.036401},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"TDG","issuer":"Transdigm Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-145","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.011412},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"TSN","issuer":"Tyson Foods, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-146","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.008423},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"USB","issuer":"U.S. Bancorp Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-147","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.012705},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"UBER","issuer":"Uber Technologies, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-148","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.005758},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"UCBJY","issuer":"UCB SA UNSP/ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-149","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.168521},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"ULTA","issuer":"Ulta Beauty, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-150","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.0344},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"UPS","issuer":"United Parcel Service, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-151","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.004198},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"URI","issuer":"United Rentals, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-152","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.005767},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-153","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.008757},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"USFD","issuer":"US Foods Holding Corp. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-154","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.020251},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"VRSK","issuer":"Verisk Analytics, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-155","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.036201},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"V","issuer":"Visa Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-156","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002559},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"DIS","issuer":"Walt Disney Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-157","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.013346},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"WCN","issuer":"Waste Connections, Inc. Common Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-158","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.019471},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"WSO","issuer":"Watsco, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-159","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.023281},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-160","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.01673},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"WAB","issuer":"Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-161","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.026585},{"date":"2025-09-23","filed":"2025-10-10","ticker":"WTW","issuer":"Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company - Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032211-162","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032211.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.012166}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"98% of 389 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.977, 90% Wilson [0.961, 0.986]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.976864,"ci":[0.960649,0.986491],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":389,"lowest_band_share":0.976864,"lowest_band_ci":[0.960649,0.986491],"share_over_50k":0.002571,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":37,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"190 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 81 and trading spans 86% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.012 (identified set [0.006, 0.105]); trade-count HHI 0.007 vs. 95th percentile 0.006 of 389 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.86 [0.80, 0.88]. Top three issuers (NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL) carry at least 2% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":80.592896,"ci":[9.528464,180.860375],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":389,"issuers":190,"hhi_mid":0.012408,"hhi_bounds":[0.005529,0.104949],"n_eff":80.592896,"hhi_count":0.006602,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.005784,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.860262,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.798323,0.884604],"top3_share_lower":0.021331,"top3":["NVDA","MSFT","GOOGL"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"81% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 40% of trades look routine; 9.5% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 8.9%).","detail":"Batch-day share 22/27, Wilson [0.67, 0.91]; index of dispersion 101.83 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.40 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.095 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.089, p = 0.300.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.814815,"ci":[0.665456,0.906828],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.3,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.739655,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":389,"trade_days":27,"batch_share_trades":0.982005,"batch_day_share":0.814815,"batch_day_ci":[0.665456,0.906828],"dispersion_index":101.829448,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.395887,"proximity_share":0.095116,"proximity_null_mean":0.088903,"proximity_null_p95":0.272494,"proximity_p":0.3,"proximity_nonroutine":0.119149,"proximity_routine":0.058442}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 382 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.20% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0020; 90% KP interval [-0.0235, 0.0276]; t_BMP = 0.96, r-bar = 0.028, t_KP = 0.28, Patell Z = 1.05, Corrado Z = 2.28. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0802, 0.0764]. Calendar-time alpha -0.91%/yr (NW t = -0.08, 245 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.002048,"ci":[-0.023486,0.027581],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.530995,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001274},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.006933},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.001419},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.076439},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.009092}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":382,"theta":0.002048,"ci":[-0.023486,0.027581],"p":0.389987,"t_kp":0.279552,"rbar":0.027587,"se_cs":0.004501,"se_kp":0.015486,"t_cs":0.454934,"t_bmp":0.96181,"patell_z":1.04884,"corrado_z":2.284747,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.08016,0.076439],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000036,"se":0.000464,"days":245,"t":-0.077772,"p_one_sided":0.530995},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000801,0.000729],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":382,"theta":0.001274,"ci":[-0.010476,0.013024],"p":0.383422,"t_kp":0.296718,"rbar":0.027587,"se_cs":0.002071,"se_kp":0.007126,"t_cs":0.615105,"t_bmp":1.020872,"patell_z":1.098587,"corrado_z":1.303},"21":{"n":382,"theta":0.002048,"ci":[-0.023486,0.027581],"p":0.389987,"t_kp":0.279552,"rbar":0.027587,"se_cs":0.004501,"se_kp":0.015486,"t_cs":0.454934,"t_bmp":0.96181,"patell_z":1.04884,"corrado_z":2.284747},"63":{"n":382,"theta":-0.006933,"ci":[-0.051759,0.037893],"p":0.621924,"t_kp":-0.310761,"rbar":0.027587,"se_cs":0.007902,"se_kp":0.027186,"t_cs":-0.877409,"t_bmp":-1.069187,"patell_z":-1.095649,"corrado_z":-0.542752}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.67, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.14, 0.98]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.506. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":3,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.5057,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2025-04-03","move":-0.049281,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-04","move":-0.058543,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-09","move":0.105019,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":7,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 of 393 trades (0.3%) were disclosed late; median lag 98 days. Another 221 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.003, Wilson [0.001, 0.011]; 90th percentile lag 318 days; longest 408 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.002545,"ci":[0.000568,0.011324],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.564885,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":393,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":1,"late_from_trade":222,"excused_by_notification":221,"late_share":0.002545,"late_ci":[0.000568,0.011324],"median_lag":98,"p90_lag":318,"max_lag":408,"filings":3,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":1,"timely_priced":381,"late_priced_dates":1}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"7% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 10% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSII, HSPW; jurisdiction sectors Air Freight & Logistics, Cargo Ground Transportation, Construction & Engineering, Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment, Construction Materials, Copper, Environmental & Facilities Services, Gold, Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines, Integrated Oil & Gas, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, Passenger Airlines, Passenger Ground Transportation, Rail Transportation, Timber REITs, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.073 (identified set [0.006, 0.488], bootstrap 0.040-0.093); benchmarks S&P 500 0.103, congressional peers 0.051.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.030373,"ci":[-0.063455,-0.00949],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":375,"in_jurisdiction_trades":32,"share":0.072597,"share_bounds":[0.00578,0.487635],"share_ci":[0.039515,0.09348],"benchmark_sp500":0.10297,"benchmark_peers":0.051028,"excess":-0.030373,"excess_ci":[-0.063455,-0.00949],"committees":["HSII","HSPW"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Air Freight & Logistics","Cargo Ground Transportation","Construction & Engineering","Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment","Construction Materials","Copper","Environmental & Facilities Services","Gold","Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Integrated Oil & Gas","Oil & Gas Exploration & Production","Passenger Airlines","Passenger Ground Transportation","Rail Transportation","Timber REITs","Water Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"32 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 6 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"32 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 6 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":32,"n_other":350,"trade_dates":6,"events":5247}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"documentary","summary":"Scrutiny on 2025-09-18 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","detail":"Scrutiny on 2025-09-18 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"OpenSecrets: 217 trades disclosed late","url":"https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/oregon-rep-val-hoyle-violated-stock-act-missing-deadlines-disclose-217-stock-transactions"}],"stats":{"scrutiny_date":"2025-09-18","changepoint":"2024-10-30","changepoint_LR":2.5943,"changepoint_p":0.838,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.110638}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 62% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0020, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.002048,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.619403,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"89 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 45 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.51, Clopper-Pearson [0.41, 0.60], exact one-sided p = 0.500; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.505618,"ci":[0.413721,0.597227],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":89,"hits":45,"hit_rate":0.505618,"ci":[0.413721,0.597227],"priced":382,"share_followed":0.232984}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"22% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 24%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.219; circular-shift null mean 0.244, 95th pct 0.346, p = 0.580. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0151, p = 0.665.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.218509,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.664945,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.208226,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":389,"cotraded_share":0.218509,"null_mean":0.244424,"null_p95":0.346272,"excess_p":0.58,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.208226,"excess_p_wo_top":0.58,"cotraded_car":-0.015143,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.055501,0.025216],"cotraded_car_p":0.664945}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +0.20% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0020 [-0.0235, 0.0276], t_KP = 0.28.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.002048,"ci":[-0.023486,0.027581],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.389987,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":389,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.002048,"family_ci":[-0.023486,0.027581],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"59 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -2.84% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0284 [-0.0743, 0.0175], t_KP = -1.19, over 58 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -2.49% (win rate 41%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.028436,"ci":[-0.074349,0.017478],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.881457,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":59,"share_in_round_trips":0.303342,"priced":58,"realized_mean":-0.024911,"realized_win_rate":0.413793,"opening_car":-0.028436,"ci":[-0.074349,0.017478],"p":0.881457,"openings_priced":58}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-03","event_date":"2025-04-03","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.93,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-04","event_date":"2025-04-04","direction":"sell","move_pct":-5.85,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-09","event_date":"2025-04-09","direction":"sell","move_pct":10.5,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}