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Managed","asset_type":"other","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20026736-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026736.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"60% of 169 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.604, 90% Wilson [0.540, 0.663]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.60355,"ci":[0.540495,0.663343],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":169,"lowest_band_share":0.60355,"lowest_band_ci":[0.540495,0.663343],"share_over_50k":0.08284,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":12,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"78 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 21 and trading spans 82% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.048 (identified set [0.021, 0.106]); trade-count HHI 0.020 vs. 95th percentile 0.010 of 169 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.82 [0.80, 0.88]. Top three issuers (FSTFX, MAIPX, IWM) carry at least 11% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":20.926347,"ci":[9.451309,46.645211],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":169,"issuers":78,"hhi_mid":0.047787,"hhi_bounds":[0.021438,0.105805],"n_eff":20.926347,"hhi_count":0.020482,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.009839,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.821778,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.795896,0.879141],"top3_share_lower":0.105173,"top3":["FSTFX","MAIPX","IWM"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"20% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 7% of trades look routine; 7.1% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 3.8%).","detail":"Batch-day share 14/71, Wilson [0.13, 0.29]; index of dispersion 5.38 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.07 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.071 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.038, p = 0.092.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.197183,"ci":[0.131264,0.285334],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.092,"p_holm":0.736,"q_bh":0.463517,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":169,"trade_days":71,"batch_share_trades":0.508876,"batch_day_share":0.197183,"batch_day_ci":[0.131264,0.285334],"dispersion_index":5.377176,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.065089,"proximity_share":0.071006,"proximity_null_mean":0.037875,"proximity_null_p95":0.08284,"proximity_p":0.092,"proximity_nonroutine":0.06962,"proximity_routine":0.090909}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 126 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.12% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0012; 90% KP interval [-0.0263, 0.0240]; t_BMP = -0.23, r-bar = 0.081, t_KP = -0.07, Patell Z = -0.31, Corrado Z = -0.60. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0205, 0.0160]. Calendar-time alpha -1.73%/yr (NW t = -0.16, 784 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.001156,"ci":[-0.026315,0.024002],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.561987,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.00091},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.010985},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000213},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.001156},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.015959},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.01735}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":126,"theta":-0.001156,"ci":[-0.026315,0.024002],"p":0.52592,"t_kp":-0.065148,"rbar":0.081125,"se_cs":0.00436,"se_kp":0.015182,"t_cs":-0.265164,"t_bmp":-0.226843,"patell_z":-0.307776,"corrado_z":-0.597337,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.020464,0.015959],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000069,"se":0.000441,"days":784,"t":-0.156009,"p_one_sided":0.561987},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.0008,0.000662],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":126,"theta":-0.00091,"ci":[-0.010571,0.008751],"p":0.464282,"t_kp":0.089834,"rbar":0.081125,"se_cs":0.001674,"se_kp":0.00583,"t_cs":-0.543429,"t_bmp":0.3128,"patell_z":0.42982,"corrado_z":-0.960846},"21":{"n":126,"theta":-0.001156,"ci":[-0.026315,0.024002],"p":0.52592,"t_kp":-0.065148,"rbar":0.081125,"se_cs":0.00436,"se_kp":0.015182,"t_cs":-0.265164,"t_bmp":-0.226843,"patell_z":-0.307776,"corrado_z":-0.597337},"63":{"n":126,"theta":-0.010985,"ci":[-0.046899,0.02493],"p":0.626559,"t_kp":-0.323468,"rbar":0.081125,"se_cs":0.006224,"se_kp":0.021673,"t_cs":-1.764799,"t_bmp":-1.126311,"patell_z":-1.427791,"corrado_z":-1.419957}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 11 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 4 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.36, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.14, 0.65]; exact one-sided p = 0.887; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.802. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.363636,"ci":[0.135075,0.650188],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.886719,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":11,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.363636,"ci":[0.135075,0.650188],"p_exact":0.886719,"p_magnitude":0.8016,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2018-04-06","move":-0.022286,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":16,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-12-26","move":0.050525,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-27","move":-0.044912,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-02","move":0.043306,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-03","move":-0.028632,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-12","move":-0.095677,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-13","move":0.085486,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-16","move":-0.109424,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-17","move":0.053992,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-18","move":-0.050633,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-05-18","move":-0.040312,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,8.051498],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,8.051498],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,19.401912],"absence_days":5,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"112 of 220 trades (50.9%) were disclosed late; median lag 235 days. Another 66 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.509, Wilson [0.454, 0.564]; 90th percentile lag 666 days; longest 853 days. Late-minus-timely signed CAR -0.0102, p = 0.922.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.509091,"ci":[0.453879,0.564082],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.922,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.922,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.809091,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":220,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":112,"late_from_trade":178,"excused_by_notification":66,"late_share":0.509091,"late_ci":[0.453879,0.564082],"median_lag":235,"p90_lag":665.9,"max_lag":853,"filings":17,"late_filings":9,"late_priced":69,"timely_priced":57,"late_priced_dates":35,"late_minus_timely_car":-0.010206,"late_minus_timely_ci":[-0.026425,0.002018],"late_minus_timely_p":0.922}},{"id":"T8","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"18% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 8% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAP, HSHM; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Application Software, Systems Software. Dollar share 0.176 (identified set [0.044, 0.479], bootstrap 0.076-0.338); benchmarks S&P 500 0.067, congressional peers 0.075.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.100744,"ci":[0.000987,0.262755],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":47,"in_jurisdiction_trades":5,"share":0.175851,"share_bounds":[0.044261,0.47867],"share_ci":[0.076094,0.337862],"benchmark_sp500":0.067327,"benchmark_peers":0.075107,"excess":0.100744,"excess_ci":[0.000987,0.262755],"committees":["HSAP","HSHM"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Application Software","Systems Software"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 123 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 123 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"n_other":123,"events":1376}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"documentary","summary":"Scrutiny on 2024-08-10 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","detail":"Scrutiny on 2024-08-10 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Alternet: a dozen transactions reported after the 45-day deadline","url":"https://www.alternet.org/stock-trading-congress/"}],"stats":{"scrutiny_date":"2024-08-10","changepoint":"2023-06-19","changepoint_LR":13.164023,"changepoint_p":0.014,"tradeday_rate_before":0.029831,"tradeday_rate_after":0.4}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 51% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0012, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.001156,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.514925,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"22 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 13 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.59, Clopper-Pearson [0.40, 0.77], exact one-sided p = 0.262; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.590909,"ci":[0.395156,0.767276],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.261734,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":22,"hits":13,"hit_rate":0.590909,"ci":[0.395156,0.767276],"priced":126,"share_followed":0.174603}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"6% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 4%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.059; circular-shift null mean 0.043, 95th pct 0.077, p = 0.200. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0135, p = 0.346.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.059172,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.345658,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.059172,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":169,"cotraded_share":0.059172,"null_mean":0.042675,"null_p95":0.076923,"excess_p":0.2,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.059172,"excess_p_wo_top":0.16,"cotraded_car":0.013474,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.025497,0.052445],"cotraded_car_p":0.345658}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","detail":"1% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":1,"family_share":0.005917,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.79% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0279 [-0.1120, 0.1679], t_KP = -0.18, over 5 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -2.48% (win rate 20%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.027932,"ci":[-0.112006,0.16787],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.565903,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":5,"share_in_round_trips":0.059172,"priced":5,"realized_mean":-0.024777,"realized_win_rate":0.2,"opening_car":0.027932,"ci":[-0.112006,0.16787],"p":0.565903,"openings_priced":5}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2018-04-06","event_date":"2018-04-06","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.23,"trade":"16 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-12-26","event_date":"2018-12-26","direction":"sell","move_pct":5.05,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-27","event_date":"2020-02-27","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.49,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-02","event_date":"2020-03-02","direction":"buy","move_pct":4.33,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-03","event_date":"2020-03-03","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.86,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-12","event_date":"2020-03-12","direction":"buy","move_pct":-9.57,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-13","event_date":"2020-03-13","direction":"buy","move_pct":8.55,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-16","event_date":"2020-03-16","direction":"buy","move_pct":-10.94,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-17","event_date":"2020-03-17","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.4,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-18","event_date":"2020-03-18","direction":"buy","move_pct":-5.06,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-05-18","event_date":"2022-05-18","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.03,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}