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Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034908-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034908.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.037542},{"date":"2026-08-28","filed":"2026-09-03","ticker":"VSAT","issuer":"ViaSat, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035370-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035370.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.09774},{"date":"2026-09-04","filed":"2026-10-19","ticker":"TYG","issuer":"Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20035551-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.03598},{"date":"2026-09-28","filed":"2026-10-19","ticker":"DDOG","issuer":"Datadog, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035551-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.000829},{"date":"2026-09-28","filed":"2026-10-19","ticker":"EL","issuer":"Estee Lauder Companies, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035551-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.036757},{"date":"2026-09-28","filed":"2026-10-19","ticker":"GH","issuer":"Guardant Health, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035551-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.022412},{"date":"2026-09-28","filed":"2026-10-19","ticker":"VSAT","issuer":"ViaSat, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035551-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.082136},{"date":"2026-09-28","filed":"2026-10-19","ticker":"WMT","issuer":"Walmart Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035551-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035551.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.035946}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"37% of 197 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.371, 90% Wilson [0.316, 0.429]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.370558,"ci":[0.316071,0.428553],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":197,"lowest_band_share":0.370558,"lowest_band_ci":[0.316071,0.428553],"share_over_50k":0.121827,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":20,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"79 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 52 and trading spans 91% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.019 (identified set [0.014, 0.035]); trade-count HHI 0.018 vs. 95th percentile 0.009 of 197 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.91 [0.89, 0.94]. Top three issuers (IBM, SHOP, PANW) carry at least 4% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":52.253219,"ci":[28.37379,70.602535],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":197,"issuers":79,"hhi_mid":0.019138,"hhi_bounds":[0.014164,0.035244],"n_eff":52.253219,"hhi_count":0.017547,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.008735,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.912655,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.88616,0.941428],"top3_share_lower":0.041788,"top3":["IBM","SHOP","PANW"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"14% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 8% of trades look routine; 10.2% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.8%).","detail":"Batch-day share 14/101, Wilson [0.09, 0.20]; index of dispersion 2.62 (chi-square p = 1.2e-140); routine share 0.08 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.102 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.068, p = 0.036.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.138614,"ci":[0.091439,0.204645],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.036,"p_holm":0.324,"q_bh":0.3432,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":197,"trade_days":101,"batch_share_trades":0.309645,"batch_day_share":0.138614,"batch_day_ci":[0.091439,0.204645],"dispersion_index":2.61707,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.076142,"proximity_share":0.101523,"proximity_null_mean":0.067801,"proximity_null_p95":0.096447,"proximity_p":0.036,"proximity_nonroutine":0.104396,"proximity_routine":0.066667}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 187 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.41% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0141; 90% KP interval [-0.0487, 0.0205]; t_BMP = -2.51, r-bar = 0.036, t_KP = -0.89, Patell Z = -2.64, Corrado Z = -1.19. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0551, 0.0273]. Calendar-time alpha -12.07%/yr (NW t = -1.04, 794 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.014132,"ci":[-0.048746,0.020482],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.851455,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.00292},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.026371},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.013421},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.013661},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.027334},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.120669}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":187,"theta":-0.014132,"ci":[-0.048746,0.020482],"p":0.813839,"t_kp":-0.894292,"rbar":0.035513,"se_cs":0.007457,"se_kp":0.020939,"t_cs":-1.895272,"t_bmp":-2.511279,"patell_z":-2.636756,"corrado_z":-1.189122,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.055053,0.027334],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000479,"se":0.000459,"days":794,"t":-1.042692,"p_one_sided":0.851455},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001238,0.00028],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":192,"theta":-0.00292,"ci":[-0.018744,0.012904],"p":0.672137,"t_kp":-0.446523,"rbar":0.035513,"se_cs":0.00337,"se_kp":0.009574,"t_cs":-0.866387,"t_bmp":-1.268443,"patell_z":-1.416847,"corrado_z":-0.364691},"21":{"n":187,"theta":-0.014132,"ci":[-0.048746,0.020482],"p":0.813839,"t_kp":-0.894292,"rbar":0.035513,"se_cs":0.007457,"se_kp":0.020939,"t_cs":-1.895272,"t_bmp":-2.511279,"patell_z":-2.636756,"corrado_z":-1.189122},"63":{"n":185,"theta":-0.026371,"ci":[-0.095135,0.042394],"p":0.841904,"t_kp":-1.005051,"rbar":0.035513,"se_cs":0.014882,"se_kp":0.041595,"t_cs":-1.771955,"t_bmp":-2.809095,"patell_z":-3.017324,"corrado_z":-1.432499}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 5 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.40, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.08, 0.81]; exact one-sided p = 0.812; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.750. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.4,"ci":[0.07644,0.810745],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.8125,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":5,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.4,"ci":[0.07644,0.810745],"p_exact":0.8125,"p_magnitude":0.7503,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2024-07-24","move":-0.022662,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-11-06","move":0.024866,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-03-10","move":-0.026636,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":10,"post_news_trades":3,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-09","move":0.105019,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":5,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-10","move":-0.043819,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":3,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,3.704329],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,3.704329],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,7.277878],"absence_days":4,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 201 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 33 days. Another 37 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.013]; 90th percentile lag 124 days; longest 175 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.013282],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.18408,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":201,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":37,"excused_by_notification":37,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.013282],"median_lag":33,"p90_lag":124,"max_lag":175,"filings":37,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":187,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"9% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 11% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAG, HSFA; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Food Distributors, Packaged Foods & Meats, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors, Timber REITs. Dollar share 0.089 (identified set [0.030, 0.229], bootstrap 0.053-0.169); benchmarks S&P 500 0.115, congressional peers 0.109.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.025994,"ci":[-0.062134,0.054328],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":191,"in_jurisdiction_trades":15,"share":0.088858,"share_bounds":[0.02993,0.228971],"share_ci":[0.052718,0.169179],"benchmark_sp500":0.114851,"benchmark_peers":0.109055,"excess":-0.025994,"excess_ci":[-0.062134,0.054328],"committees":["HSAG","HSFA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Food Distributors","Packaged Foods & Meats","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors","Timber REITs"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"14 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved -1.62% in the trade's favour, -0.22% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = -0.0162; pre-event minus other trades = -0.0022 [-0.0725, 0.0478], p = 0.53; mean pre-trade drift psi = 0.0052.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":-0.002198,"ci":[-0.072516,0.047796],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.53,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.848154,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.004138},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.002198},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.029334},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"n_other":173,"theta9":-0.016166,"diff":-0.002198,"ci":[-0.072516,0.047796],"p":0.53,"pre_trade_drift":0.005158,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":1606,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":783,"committee_markup":628,"became_law":100,"committee_reported":95},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.072917,"trade_dates":12,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 1.47 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 1.47 times its earlier rate. Change point 2023-01-11 (p = 0.338).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":1.473235,"ci":[1.145539,1.90206],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Raw Story: members of the 118th Congress who violated the STOCK Act","url":"https://www.rawstory.com/congress-stock/"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2023-01-11","changepoint_LR":5.500939,"changepoint_p":0.338,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.102167,"scrutiny_date":"2024-09-30","rate_ratio":1.473235,"rate_ratio_ci":[1.145539,1.90206]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 21% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0141, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.014132,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.208955,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"44 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 16 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.36, Clopper-Pearson [0.24, 0.50], exact one-sided p = 0.976; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.363636,"ci":[0.243106,0.498568],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.975617,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":44,"hits":16,"hit_rate":0.363636,"ci":[0.243106,0.498568],"priced":192,"share_followed":0.229167}},{"id":"T13","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"24% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 18%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.239; circular-shift null mean 0.177, 95th pct 0.223, p = 0.030. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0098, p = 0.797.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.238579,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.796978,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.917733,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.228426,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":197,"cotraded_share":0.238579,"null_mean":0.176691,"null_p95":0.22335,"excess_p":0.03,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.228426,"excess_p_wo_top":0.01,"cotraded_car":-0.009765,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.044585,0.025054],"cotraded_car_p":0.796978}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"26% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -1.54% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0154 [-0.0569, 0.0262], t_KP = -1.00; family minus self -0.0017 [-0.0232, 0.0388], p = 0.582.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.015355,"ci":[-0.056933,0.026223],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.838185,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.936795,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":52,"family_share":0.263959,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.015355,"family_ci":[-0.056933,0.026223],"diff":-0.001694,"diff_ci":[-0.023184,0.038766],"diff_p":0.582}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"38 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -6.67% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0667 [-0.1154, -0.0180], t_KP = -2.30, over 37 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -12.78% (win rate 14%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.066731,"ci":[-0.115423,-0.018039],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.9863,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":38,"share_in_round_trips":0.385787,"priced":37,"realized_mean":-0.127837,"realized_win_rate":0.135135,"opening_car":-0.066731,"ci":[-0.115423,-0.018039],"p":0.9863,"openings_priced":37}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2024-07-24","event_date":"2024-07-24","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.27,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-11-06","event_date":"2024-11-06","direction":"sell","move_pct":2.49,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-03-10","event_date":"2025-03-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.66,"trade":"10 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-09","event_date":"2025-04-09","direction":"sell","move_pct":10.5,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-10","event_date":"2025-04-10","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.38,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}