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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.990385,"ci":[0.95805,0.997852],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":104,"lowest_band_share":0.990385,"lowest_band_ci":[0.95805,0.997852],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":3,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"56 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 39 and trading spans 83% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.026 (identified set [0.018, 0.202]); trade-count HHI 0.022 vs. 95th percentile 0.014 of 104 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.83 [0.79, 0.89]. Top three issuers (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL) carry at least 2% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":38.885435,"ci":[4.939597,55.983112],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":104,"issuers":56,"hhi_mid":0.025717,"hhi_bounds":[0.017863,0.202446],"n_eff":38.885435,"hhi_count":0.022004,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.013683,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.826785,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.788214,0.8896],"top3_share_lower":0.018689,"top3":["AMZN","MSFT","GOOGL"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"38% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 2.9% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.5%).","detail":"Batch-day share 9/24, Wilson [0.23, 0.54]; index of dispersion 17.26 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.029 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.065, p = 0.928.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.375,"ci":[0.233052,0.542276],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.928,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":104,"trade_days":24,"batch_share_trades":0.769231,"batch_day_share":0.375,"batch_day_ci":[0.233052,0.542276],"dispersion_index":17.262268,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.028846,"proximity_null_mean":0.065111,"proximity_null_p95":0.125,"proximity_p":0.928,"proximity_nonroutine":0.028846,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 100 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.73% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0073; 90% KP interval [-0.0310, 0.0164]; t_BMP = -0.08, r-bar = 0.020, t_KP = -0.04, Patell Z = -0.07, Corrado Z = 0.02. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.1001, 0.0606]. Calendar-time alpha -4.06%/yr (NW t = -0.21, 433 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.007298,"ci":[-0.031037,0.016441],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.582034,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001262},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.004145},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.006527},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.007298},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.060584},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.040643}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":100,"theta":-0.007298,"ci":[-0.031037,0.016441],"p":0.517586,"t_kp":-0.044208,"rbar":0.020065,"se_cs":0.00819,"se_kp":0.014297,"t_cs":-0.891136,"t_bmp":-0.077175,"patell_z":-0.072798,"corrado_z":0.017911,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.100139,0.060584],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000161,"se":0.000779,"days":433,"t":-0.207099,"p_one_sided":0.582034},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001454,0.001132],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":100,"theta":0.001262,"ci":[-0.010201,0.012724],"p":0.279946,"t_kp":0.584979,"rbar":0.020065,"se_cs":0.003954,"se_kp":0.006904,"t_cs":0.319068,"t_bmp":1.021224,"patell_z":1.049715,"corrado_z":1.042925},"21":{"n":100,"theta":-0.007298,"ci":[-0.031037,0.016441],"p":0.517586,"t_kp":-0.044208,"rbar":0.020065,"se_cs":0.00819,"se_kp":0.014297,"t_cs":-0.891136,"t_bmp":-0.077175,"patell_z":-0.072798,"corrado_z":0.017911},"63":{"n":100,"theta":0.004145,"ci":[-0.036365,0.044656],"p":0.271684,"t_kp":0.609837,"rbar":0.020065,"se_cs":0.013976,"se_kp":0.024398,"t_cs":0.296608,"t_bmp":1.064619,"patell_z":0.952631,"corrado_z":1.328688}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 2 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.22, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.250; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.253. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.223607,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.25,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":2,"hits":2,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.223607,1],"p_exact":0.25,"p_magnitude":0.2528,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2024-11-06","move":0.024866,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-03-10","move":-0.026636,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 of 198 trades (1.5%) were disclosed late; median lag 19 days. Another 3 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.015, Wilson [0.006, 0.037]; 90th percentile lag 41 days; longest 273 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.015152,"ci":[0.006071,0.037304],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.030303,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":198,"amendment_rows_excluded":3,"late":3,"late_from_trade":6,"excused_by_notification":3,"late_share":0.015152,"late_ci":[0.006071,0.037304],"median_lag":19,"p90_lag":41,"max_lag":273,"filings":38,"late_filings":3,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":100,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"12% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 10% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAS, HSFA; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors. Dollar share 0.122 (identified set [0.010, 0.657], bootstrap 0.053-0.194); benchmarks S&P 500 0.065, congressional peers 0.096.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.026216,"ci":[-0.043013,0.097933],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":101,"in_jurisdiction_trades":13,"share":0.122311,"share_bounds":[0.009612,0.656708],"share_ci":[0.053082,0.194028],"benchmark_sp500":0.065347,"benchmark_peers":0.096095,"excess":0.026216,"excess_ci":[-0.043013,0.097933],"committees":["HSAS","HSFA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"11 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 6 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"11 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 6 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"n_other":89,"trade_dates":6,"events":1534}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2023-10-05, trading ran at 0.77 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2023-10-05, trading ran at 0.77 times its earlier rate. Change point 2025-01-07 (p = 0.058).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":0.771789,"ci":[0.526461,1.115873],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Raw Story: Armed Services member bought Boeing notes","url":"https://www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/stock-act-congress-william-keating/"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2025-01-07","changepoint_LR":9.458791,"changepoint_p":0.058,"tradeday_rate_before":0.019115,"tradeday_rate_after":0.125,"scrutiny_date":"2023-10-05","rate_ratio":0.771789,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.526461,1.115873]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 30% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0073, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.007298,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.298507,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 4 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.57, Clopper-Pearson [0.23, 0.87], exact one-sided p = 0.500; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.571429,"ci":[0.225322,0.871244],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":7,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.571429,"ci":[0.225322,0.871244],"priced":100,"share_followed":0.07}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"15% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 16%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.154; circular-shift null mean 0.155, 95th pct 0.240, p = 0.470. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0170, p = 0.773.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.153846,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.773451,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.144231,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":104,"cotraded_share":0.153846,"null_mean":0.155206,"null_p95":0.240385,"excess_p":0.47,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.144231,"excess_p_wo_top":0.39,"cotraded_car":-0.017011,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.047612,0.013589],"cotraded_car_p":0.773451}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -3.87% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0387 [-0.1401, 0.0627], t_KP = -0.35, over 5 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +1.89% (win rate 60%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.038733,"ci":[-0.140137,0.06267],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.627319,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":5,"share_in_round_trips":0.096154,"priced":5,"realized_mean":0.018877,"realized_win_rate":0.6,"opening_car":-0.038733,"ci":[-0.140137,0.06267],"p":0.627319,"openings_priced":5}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2024-11-06","event_date":"2024-11-06","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.49,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-03-10","event_date":"2025-03-10","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.66,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}