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10/1/32","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20035652-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035652.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"83% of 53 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.830, 90% Wilson [0.730, 0.898]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.830189,"ci":[0.729866,0.898438],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":53,"lowest_band_share":0.830189,"lowest_band_ci":[0.729866,0.898438],"share_over_50k":0.056604,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":1,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"42 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 8 and trading spans 78% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.119 (identified set [0.037, 0.276]); trade-count HHI 0.027 vs. 95th percentile 0.025 of 53 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.012). Normalized sector entropy 0.78 [0.69, 0.87]. Top three issuers (GLD, HLMEX, CLF) carry at least 21% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":8.40329,"ci":[3.617056,27.181022],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":53,"issuers":42,"hhi_mid":0.119001,"hhi_bounds":[0.03679,0.276468],"n_eff":8.40329,"hhi_count":0.027412,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.024564,"peer_benchmark_p":0.012,"sector_entropy":0.776486,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.688425,0.874078],"top3_share_lower":0.206614,"top3":["GLD","HLMEX","CLF"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"31% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 6% of trades look routine; 1.9% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.9%).","detail":"Batch-day share 8/26, Wilson [0.18, 0.47]; index of dispersion 2.72 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.06 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.019 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.059, p = 0.906.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.307692,"ci":[0.182969,0.468666],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.906,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":53,"trade_days":26,"batch_share_trades":0.528302,"batch_day_share":0.307692,"batch_day_ci":[0.182969,0.468666],"dispersion_index":2.719304,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.056604,"proximity_share":0.018868,"proximity_null_mean":0.059137,"proximity_null_p95":0.132075,"proximity_p":0.906,"proximity_nonroutine":0.02,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 40 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.40% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0040; 90% KP interval [-0.0312, 0.0232]; t_BMP = -0.88, r-bar = 0.022, t_KP = -0.63, Patell Z = -0.87, Corrado Z = -0.43. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0899, 0.0236]. Calendar-time alpha 15.68%/yr (NW t = 0.95, 210 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.004011,"ci":[-0.031242,0.023221],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.734877,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.002543},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.016433},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.006393},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.001198},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.023599},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.156791}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"theta":-0.004011,"ci":[-0.031242,0.023221],"p":0.734877,"t_kp":-0.63328,"rbar":0.022364,"se_cs":0.011679,"se_kp":0.016162,"t_cs":-0.343388,"t_bmp":-0.87636,"patell_z":-0.87263,"corrado_z":-0.433127,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.089924,0.023599],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000622,"se":0.000658,"days":210,"t":0.945757,"p_one_sided":0.172136},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000486,0.001731],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":40,"theta":-0.002543,"ci":[-0.014511,0.009426],"p":0.699348,"t_kp":-0.526817,"rbar":0.022364,"se_cs":0.005133,"se_kp":0.007104,"t_cs":-0.495316,"t_bmp":-0.729032,"patell_z":-0.781326,"corrado_z":-0.590029},"21":{"n":40,"theta":-0.004011,"ci":[-0.031242,0.023221],"p":0.734877,"t_kp":-0.63328,"rbar":0.022364,"se_cs":0.011679,"se_kp":0.016162,"t_cs":-0.343388,"t_bmp":-0.87636,"patell_z":-0.87263,"corrado_z":-0.433127},"63":{"n":40,"theta":-0.016433,"ci":[-0.060734,0.027867],"p":0.728865,"t_kp":-0.614782,"rbar":0.022364,"se_cs":0.019,"se_kp":0.026293,"t_cs":-0.86491,"t_bmp":-0.850761,"patell_z":-0.739529,"corrado_z":-0.699353}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,6.253333],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,6.253333],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,13.132348],"absence_days":28,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"14 of 214 trades (6.5%) were disclosed late; median lag 32 days. Another 13 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.065, Wilson [0.043, 0.099]; 90th percentile lag 63 days; longest 771 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.065421,"ci":[0.04269,0.099002],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.126168,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":214,"amendment_rows_excluded":1,"late":14,"late_from_trade":27,"excused_by_notification":13,"late_share":0.065421,"late_ci":[0.04269,0.099002],"median_lag":31.5,"p90_lag":63,"max_lag":771,"filings":57,"late_filings":6,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":40,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"15% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 14% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSWM; jurisdiction sectors Distillers & Vintners, Health Care, Life & Health Insurance, Tobacco. Dollar share 0.154 (identified set [0.029, 0.521], bootstrap 0.054-0.283); benchmarks S&P 500 0.139, congressional peers 0.119.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.01537,"ci":[-0.084502,0.143905],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":49,"in_jurisdiction_trades":14,"share":0.153983,"share_bounds":[0.028644,0.521238],"share_ci":[0.054112,0.282518],"benchmark_sp500":0.138614,"benchmark_peers":0.11941,"excess":0.01537,"excess_ci":[-0.084502,0.143905],"committees":["HSWM"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Distillers & Vintners","Health Care","Life & Health Insurance","Tobacco"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"13 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 9 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"13 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 9 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":13,"n_other":27,"trade_dates":9,"events":1493}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2021-09-29, trading ran at 0.73 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2021-09-29, trading ran at 0.73 times its earlier rate. Change point 2018-01-05 (p = 0.004).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":0.734048,"ci":[0.431922,1.220541],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Insider: late report of spouse's purchase (via Salon)","url":"https://salon.com/2021/09/29/four-more-reps-under-scrutiny-for-potential-stock-trading-violations"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2018-01-05","changepoint_LR":16.892868,"changepoint_p":0.004,"tradeday_rate_before":0.02091,"tradeday_rate_after":0.004043,"scrutiny_date":"2021-09-29","rate_ratio":0.734048,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.431922,1.220541]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 43% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0040, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.004011,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.432836,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"3 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.67, Clopper-Pearson [0.14, 0.98], exact one-sided p = 0.500; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"priced":40,"share_followed":0.075}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"13% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 13%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.132; circular-shift null mean 0.133, 95th pct 0.245, p = 0.580. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0123, p = 0.599.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.132075,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.599077,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.113208,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":53,"cotraded_share":0.132075,"null_mean":0.133028,"null_p95":0.245283,"excess_p":0.58,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.113208,"excess_p_wo_top":0.51,"cotraded_car":-0.012291,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.083749,0.059167],"cotraded_car_p":0.599077}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"64% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -0.54% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0054 [-0.0375, 0.0268], t_KP = -0.59; family minus self -0.0042 [-0.0529, 0.0287], p = 0.570.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.005365,"ci":[-0.037537,0.026807],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.719611,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.928388,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":34,"family_share":0.641509,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.005365,"family_ci":[-0.037537,0.026807],"diff":-0.004167,"diff_ci":[-0.052863,0.028688],"diff_p":0.57}},{"id":"T15","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 round trips but fewer than three priced.","detail":"2 round trips but fewer than three priced.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":2,"share_in_round_trips":0.075472}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}