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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.029359},{"date":"2026-06-02","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-014","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.055727},{"date":"2026-06-02","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"SYK","issuer":"Stryker Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-016","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.088396},{"date":"2026-06-04","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"WPM","issuer":"Wheaton Precious Metals Corp Common Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-018","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.105174},{"date":"2026-06-17","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"GIL","issuer":"Gildan Activewear, Inc. Class A Sub. Vot. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.014864},{"date":"2026-06-17","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":null,"issuer":"U.S. Treasury Note 3.875% 6/15/2028","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-017","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2026-06-22","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"ESAB","issuer":"ESAB Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.024605},{"date":"2026-06-24","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"GOOGL","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.009366},{"date":"2026-06-24","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"ESAB","issuer":"ESAB Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.044592},{"date":"2026-06-29","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"JNJ","issuer":"Johnson & Johnson Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.024324},{"date":"2026-06-29","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"MKL","issuer":"Markel Group Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-013","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.007059},{"date":"2026-06-29","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"SPGI","issuer":"S&P Global Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-015","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.144695},{"date":"2026-06-30","filed":"2026-07-15","ticker":"ADI","issuer":"Analog Devices, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035003-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035003.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.0338},{"date":"2026-07-07","filed":"2026-08-18","ticker":"EQT","issuer":"EQT Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035273-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035273.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.039846},{"date":"2026-07-07","filed":"2026-08-18","ticker":"ESAB","issuer":"ESAB Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035273-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035273.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.068061},{"date":"2026-07-08","filed":"2026-08-18","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035273-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035273.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028791},{"date":"2026-07-08","filed":"2026-08-18","ticker":"TOST","issuer":"Toast, Inc. Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035273-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035273.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.064286},{"date":"2026-07-22","filed":"2026-08-18","ticker":"GOOGL","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035273-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035273.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.00937},{"date":"2026-07-22","filed":"2026-08-18","ticker":"SYK","issuer":"Stryker Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035273-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035273.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.148141},{"date":"2026-08-10","filed":"2026-09-12","ticker":"AMCR","issuer":"Amcor plc Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035431-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035431.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.030349},{"date":"2026-08-10","filed":"2026-09-12","ticker":"LIN","issuer":"Linde plc - Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035431-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035431.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.039219},{"date":"2026-08-21","filed":"2026-09-12","ticker":"MTZ","issuer":"MasTec, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035431-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035431.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.117336},{"date":"2026-08-27","filed":"2026-09-12","ticker":"GOOGL","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035431-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035431.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.005815},{"date":"2026-08-27","filed":"2026-09-12","ticker":"JNJ","issuer":"Johnson & Johnson Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035431-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035431.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.038239},{"date":"2026-08-27","filed":"2026-09-12","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035431-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035431.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.015758}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"80% of 150 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.800, 90% Wilson [0.741, 0.848]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.8,"ci":[0.741177,0.848192],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":150,"lowest_band_share":0.8,"lowest_band_ci":[0.741177,0.848192],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":18,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"57 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 14 and trading spans 72% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.073 (identified set [0.023, 0.301]); trade-count HHI 0.028 vs. 95th percentile 0.011 of 150 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.72 [0.65, 0.80]. Top three issuers (SYK, JNJ, SPGI) carry at least 10% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":13.759856,"ci":[3.327742,42.925505],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":150,"issuers":57,"hhi_mid":0.072675,"hhi_bounds":[0.023296,0.300504],"n_eff":13.759856,"hhi_count":0.027911,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.010676,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.723424,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.650842,0.803375],"top3_share_lower":0.101436,"top3":["SYK","JNJ","SPGI"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"13% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 10% of trades look routine; 12.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.6%).","detail":"Batch-day share 12/94, Wilson [0.08, 0.19]; index of dispersion 2.12 (chi-square p = 9.54e-79); routine share 0.10 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.120 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.066, p = 0.018.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.12766,"ci":[0.081295,0.194858],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.018,"p_holm":0.144,"q_bh":0.309833,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":150,"trade_days":94,"batch_share_trades":0.306667,"batch_day_share":0.12766,"batch_day_ci":[0.081295,0.194858],"dispersion_index":2.124013,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.1,"proximity_share":0.12,"proximity_null_mean":0.066132,"proximity_null_p95":0.106667,"proximity_p":0.018,"proximity_nonroutine":0.103704,"proximity_routine":0.266667}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 143 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.42% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0042; 90% KP interval [-0.0448, 0.0532]; t_BMP = 0.95, r-bar = 0.108, t_KP = 0.22, Patell Z = 1.05, Corrado Z = 1.18. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0524, 0.0557]. Calendar-time alpha -6.93%/yr (NW t = -0.48, 748 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.004168,"ci":[-0.044839,0.053175],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.683596,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000021},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.030701},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.003048},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.004168},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.055653},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.069337}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":143,"theta":0.004168,"ci":[-0.044839,0.053175],"p":0.412423,"t_kp":0.221725,"rbar":0.108264,"se_cs":0.006908,"se_kp":0.0296,"t_cs":0.603347,"t_bmp":0.950095,"patell_z":1.053022,"corrado_z":1.1807,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.052444,0.055653],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000275,"se":0.000576,"days":748,"t":-0.477779,"p_one_sided":0.683596},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001229,0.000678],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":143,"theta":-0.000021,"ci":[-0.025854,0.025811],"p":0.493647,"t_kp":0.015954,"rbar":0.108264,"se_cs":0.003641,"se_kp":0.015603,"t_cs":-0.005861,"t_bmp":0.068365,"patell_z":0.084314,"corrado_z":0.356325},"21":{"n":143,"theta":0.004168,"ci":[-0.044839,0.053175],"p":0.412423,"t_kp":0.221725,"rbar":0.108264,"se_cs":0.006908,"se_kp":0.0296,"t_cs":0.603347,"t_bmp":0.950095,"patell_z":1.053022,"corrado_z":1.1807},"63":{"n":137,"theta":0.030701,"ci":[-0.053021,0.114423],"p":0.247073,"t_kp":0.685578,"rbar":0.108264,"se_cs":0.012039,"se_kp":0.050553,"t_cs":2.550162,"t_bmp":2.878851,"patell_z":2.696773,"corrado_z":1.941553}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 8 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.25, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 0.60]; exact one-sided p = 0.965; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.964. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.25,"ci":[0.046389,0.599689],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.964844,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":8,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.25,"ci":[0.046389,0.599689],"p_exact":0.964844,"p_magnitude":0.9639,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2024-07-24","move":-0.022662,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-08-05","move":-0.029124,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-08-08","move":0.023117,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-12-18","move":-0.029803,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-03-10","move":-0.026636,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-03","move":-0.049281,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":3,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-04","move":-0.058543,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":4,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2026-06-05","move":-0.025809,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":10,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: discretion with an adviser or trustee; trading during absence ran at 3.03 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: discretion with an adviser or trustee; trading during absence ran at 3.03 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":3.032269,"ci":[2.113981,4.273783],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Office: a 'blind structure', not a qualified blind trust; he does not direct his trades (2026-04-24)","url":"https://www.washingtonsun.com/congress/tom-kean-trading-stocks"}],"stats":{"arrangement":{"member_id":"K000398","discretion":"adviser","blind_trust":"false","consulted":"","source_url":"https://www.washingtonsun.com/congress/tom-kean-trading-stocks","note":"Office: a 'blind structure', not a qualified blind trust; he does not direct his trades (2026-04-24)"},"rate_ratio":3.032269,"rate_ratio_ci":[2.113981,4.273783],"rate_ratio_batchdays":2.210127,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[1.307914,3.576277],"absence_days":75,"trades_in_absence":31}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 of 186 trades (0.5%) were disclosed late; median lag 31 days. Another 7 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.005, Wilson [0.001, 0.024]; 90th percentile lag 43 days; longest 329 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.005376,"ci":[0.0012,0.023736],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.043011,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":186,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":1,"late_from_trade":8,"excused_by_notification":7,"late_share":0.005376,"late_ci":[0.0012,0.023736],"median_lag":31,"p90_lag":43,"max_lag":329,"filings":39,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":143,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"47% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 37% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSFA, HSIF; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Automobile Manufacturers, Communication Services, Energy, Health Care, Interactive Media & Services, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors, Tobacco, Utilities. Dollar share 0.469 (identified set [0.135, 0.829], bootstrap 0.372-0.588); benchmarks S&P 500 0.341, congressional peers 0.370.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.099345,"ci":[0.002331,0.218129],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":140,"in_jurisdiction_trades":54,"share":0.469158,"share_bounds":[0.135105,0.829255],"share_ci":[0.372144,0.587942],"benchmark_sp500":0.340594,"benchmark_peers":0.369813,"excess":0.099345,"excess_ci":[0.002331,0.218129],"committees":["HSFA","HSIF"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Automobile Manufacturers","Communication Services","Energy","Health Care","Interactive Media & Services","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors","Tobacco","Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"49 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +1.59% in the trade's favour, +1.78% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = 0.0159; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0178 [-0.0077, 0.0395], p = 0.118; mean pre-trade drift psi = -0.0061.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.017821,"ci":[-0.007724,0.03953],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.118,"p_holm":0.708,"q_bh":0.697714,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"fits","value":0.026772},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.014331},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"fits","value":0.026731},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":49,"n_other":94,"theta9":0.015882,"diff":0.017821,"ci":[-0.007724,0.03953],"p":0.118,"pre_trade_drift":-0.006061,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":4131,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":1774,"committee_markup":1411,"committee_reported":679,"became_law":267},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.342657,"trade_dates":42,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2026-04-24, trading ran at 2.72 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2026-04-24, trading ran at 2.72 times its earlier rate. Change point 2024-12-13 (p = 0.002).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":2.72227,"ci":[1.915372,3.807971],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"NOTUS: absent from Capitol Hill, still trading stocks","url":"https://www.washingtonsun.com/congress/tom-kean-trading-stocks"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2024-12-13","changepoint_LR":24.944504,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.05169,"tradeday_rate_after":0.152809,"scrutiny_date":"2026-04-24","rate_ratio":2.72227,"rate_ratio_ci":[1.915372,3.807971]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 69% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0042, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.004168,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.69403,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"26 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 11 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.42, Clopper-Pearson [0.26, 0.60], exact one-sided p = 0.837; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.423077,"ci":[0.258424,0.601576],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.83653,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":26,"hits":11,"hit_rate":0.423077,"ci":[0.258424,0.601576],"priced":143,"share_followed":0.181818}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 16%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.180; circular-shift null mean 0.160, 95th pct 0.214, p = 0.270. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0274, p = 0.094.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.18,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.093566,"p_holm":0.654961,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.133333,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":150,"cotraded_share":0.18,"null_mean":0.159596,"null_p95":0.214,"excess_p":0.27,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.133333,"excess_p_wo_top":0.8,"cotraded_car":0.027404,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.010189,0.064997],"cotraded_car_p":0.093566}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"9 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -5.38% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0538 [-0.1489, 0.0413], t_KP = -0.93, over 9 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -2.41% (win rate 33%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.053791,"ci":[-0.148904,0.041322],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.80939,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":9,"share_in_round_trips":0.12,"priced":9,"realized_mean":-0.024125,"realized_win_rate":0.333333,"opening_car":-0.053791,"ci":[-0.148904,0.041322],"p":0.80939,"openings_priced":9}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2024-07-24","event_date":"2024-07-24","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.27,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-08-05","event_date":"2024-08-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.91,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-08-08","event_date":"2024-08-08","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.31,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-12-18","event_date":"2024-12-18","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.98,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-03-10","event_date":"2025-03-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.66,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-03","event_date":"2025-04-03","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.93,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-04","event_date":"2025-04-04","direction":"buy","move_pct":-5.85,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2026-06-05","event_date":"2026-06-05","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.58,"trade":"10 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}