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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.98044,"ci":[0.965621,0.988944],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":409,"lowest_band_share":0.98044,"lowest_band_ci":[0.965621,0.988944],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":71,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"152 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 104 and trading spans 93% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.010 (identified set [0.007, 0.065]); trade-count HHI 0.008 vs. 95th percentile 0.006 of 409 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.93 [0.92, 0.97]. Top three issuers (UNP, BAC, AMAT) carry at least 1% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":104.164423,"ci":[15.387237,150.997836],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":409,"issuers":152,"hhi_mid":0.0096,"hhi_bounds":[0.006623,0.064989],"n_eff":104.164423,"hhi_count":0.008435,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.005724,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.934868,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.923037,0.966754],"top3_share_lower":0.011036,"top3":["UNP","BAC","AMAT"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"36% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 15% of trades look routine; 17.4% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.3%).","detail":"Batch-day share 16/44, Wilson [0.26, 0.49]; index of dispersion 44.55 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.15 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.174 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.063, p = 0.024.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.363636,"ci":[0.255488,0.487584],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.024,"p_holm":0.216,"q_bh":0.309833,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":409,"trade_days":44,"batch_share_trades":0.91198,"batch_day_share":0.363636,"batch_day_ci":[0.255488,0.487584],"dispersion_index":44.547683,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.146699,"proximity_share":0.173594,"proximity_null_mean":0.063055,"proximity_null_p95":0.127384,"proximity_p":0.024,"proximity_nonroutine":0.083095,"proximity_routine":0.7}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 378 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.92% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0192; 90% KP interval [-0.0497, 0.0113]; t_BMP = -5.10, r-bar = 0.046, t_KP = -1.17, Patell Z = -7.62, Corrado Z = -2.92. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.1059, 0.0484]. Calendar-time alpha -12.73%/yr (NW t = -0.64, 617 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.019236,"ci":[-0.049727,0.011254],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.877862,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.012948},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.027668},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.024473},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.098274},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.048439},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.127327}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":378,"theta":-0.019236,"ci":[-0.049727,0.011254],"p":0.877862,"t_kp":-1.166187,"rbar":0.045727,"se_cs":0.00423,"se_kp":0.018491,"t_cs":-4.547974,"t_bmp":-5.098394,"patell_z":-7.623192,"corrado_z":-2.922963,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.105932,0.048439],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000505,"se":0.000784,"days":617,"t":-0.644306,"p_one_sided":0.740312},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001798,0.000788],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":378,"theta":-0.012948,"ci":[-0.035952,0.010055],"p":0.82738,"t_kp":-0.945047,"rbar":0.045727,"se_cs":0.003191,"se_kp":0.013951,"t_cs":-4.057639,"t_bmp":-4.131604,"patell_z":-10.321126,"corrado_z":-3.121107},"21":{"n":378,"theta":-0.019236,"ci":[-0.049727,0.011254],"p":0.877862,"t_kp":-1.166187,"rbar":0.045727,"se_cs":0.00423,"se_kp":0.018491,"t_cs":-4.547974,"t_bmp":-5.098394,"patell_z":-7.623192,"corrado_z":-2.922963},"63":{"n":378,"theta":-0.027668,"ci":[-0.076683,0.021347],"p":0.809229,"t_kp":-0.876086,"rbar":0.045727,"se_cs":0.006799,"se_kp":0.029726,"t_cs":-4.069206,"t_bmp":-3.830115,"patell_z":-5.090222,"corrado_z":-0.402224}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 15 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 5 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.33, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.14, 0.58]; exact one-sided p = 0.941; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.799. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.333333,"ci":[0.141664,0.577444],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.940765,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":15,"hits":5,"hit_rate":0.333333,"ci":[0.141664,0.577444],"p_exact":0.940765,"p_magnitude":0.7994,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2018-03-22","move":-0.024997,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-03-23","move":-0.021315,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-12-26","move":0.050525,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-24","move":-0.033166,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-25","move":-0.030302,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-16","move":-0.109424,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":60,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-17","move":0.053992,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":56,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-18","move":-0.050633,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":7,"post_news_trades":56,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-24","move":0.090603,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":60,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-26","move":0.05839,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":56,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-03-07","move":-0.029479,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-03-09","move":0.026811,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-04-29","move":-0.036956,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-05-05","move":-0.035543,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-09-13","move":-0.043482,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,0.570018],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,0.570018],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,5.463058],"absence_days":26,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 of 458 trades (0.2%) were disclosed late; median lag 20 days. Another 1 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.002, Wilson [0.000, 0.010]; 90th percentile lag 35 days; longest 307 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.002183,"ci":[0.000487,0.009727],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.004367,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":458,"amendment_rows_excluded":6,"late":1,"late_from_trade":2,"excused_by_notification":1,"late_share":0.002183,"late_ci":[0.000487,0.009727],"median_lag":20,"p90_lag":35,"max_lag":307,"filings":41,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":3,"timely_priced":375,"late_priced_dates":2}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"12% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 17% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSJU, HSSY; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Biotechnology, Broadline Retail, Interactive Media & Services, Pharmaceuticals, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors. Dollar share 0.124 (identified set [0.012, 0.636], bootstrap 0.095-0.181); benchmarks S&P 500 0.107, congressional peers 0.171.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.046191,"ci":[-0.075782,0.009935],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":376,"in_jurisdiction_trades":46,"share":0.124423,"share_bounds":[0.011503,0.636339],"share_ci":[0.094832,0.180549],"benchmark_sp500":0.106931,"benchmark_peers":0.170614,"excess":-0.046191,"excess_ci":[-0.075782,0.009935],"committees":["HSJU","HSSY"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Biotechnology","Broadline Retail","Interactive Media & Services","Pharmaceuticals","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"41 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved -1.33% in the trade's favour, +0.66% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = -0.0133; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0066 [-0.0131, 0.0242], p = 0.3; mean pre-trade drift psi = 0.0040.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.006624,"ci":[-0.013118,0.024165],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.3,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.792857,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.000345},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.002737},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.006215},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":41,"n_other":337,"theta9":-0.013331,"diff":0.006624,"ci":[-0.013118,0.024165],"p":0.3,"pre_trade_drift":0.003978,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":2813,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":1363,"committee_markup":742,"committee_reported":492,"became_law":216},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.108466,"trade_dates":18,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"documentary","summary":"Scrutiny on 2024-09-30 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","detail":"Scrutiny on 2024-09-30 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Raw Story: members of the 118th Congress who violated the STOCK Act","url":"https://www.rawstory.com/congress-stock/"}],"stats":{"scrutiny_date":"2024-09-30","changepoint":"2023-05-25","changepoint_LR":11.524613,"changepoint_p":0.022,"tradeday_rate_before":0.020588,"tradeday_rate_after":1}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 13% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0192, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.019236,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.134328,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"98 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 40 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.41, Clopper-Pearson [0.32, 0.50], exact one-sided p = 0.973; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.408163,"ci":[0.324393,0.496198],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.972805,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":98,"hits":40,"hit_rate":0.408163,"ci":[0.324393,0.496198],"priced":378,"share_followed":0.259259}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"8% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 10%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.078; circular-shift null mean 0.102, 95th pct 0.140, p = 0.890. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0275, p = 0.878.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.07824,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.878364,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.953281,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.07335,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":409,"cotraded_share":0.07824,"null_mean":0.101504,"null_p95":0.139609,"excess_p":0.89,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.07335,"excess_p_wo_top":0.69,"cotraded_car":-0.027484,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.064139,0.009171],"cotraded_car_p":0.878364}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"97% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -2.28% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0228 [-0.0506, 0.0050], t_KP = -1.26; family minus self -0.1210 [-0.3449, -0.0632], p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.022758,"ci":[-0.050558,0.005041],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.895103,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.95426,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":397,"family_share":0.97066,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.022758,"family_ci":[-0.050558,0.005041],"diff":-0.121032,"diff_ci":[-0.344946,-0.063212],"diff_p":1}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"14 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +1.20% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0120 [-0.0170, 0.0410], t_KP = 0.28, over 14 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -2.43% (win rate 57%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.011983,"ci":[-0.017037,0.041003],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.393252,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":14,"share_in_round_trips":0.06846,"priced":14,"realized_mean":-0.024321,"realized_win_rate":0.571429,"opening_car":0.011983,"ci":[-0.017037,0.041003],"p":0.393252,"openings_priced":14}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2018-03-22","event_date":"2018-03-22","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.5,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-03-23","event_date":"2018-03-23","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.13,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-12-26","event_date":"2018-12-26","direction":"sell","move_pct":5.05,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-24","event_date":"2020-02-24","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.32,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-25","event_date":"2020-02-25","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.03,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-16","event_date":"2020-03-16","direction":"sell","move_pct":-10.94,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-17","event_date":"2020-03-17","direction":"sell","move_pct":5.4,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-18","event_date":"2020-03-18","direction":"sell","move_pct":-5.06,"trade":"7 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-24","event_date":"2020-03-24","direction":"sell","move_pct":9.06,"trade":"60 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-26","event_date":"2020-03-26","direction":"sell","move_pct":5.84,"trade":"56 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-03-07","event_date":"2022-03-07","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.95,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-03-09","event_date":"2022-03-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.68,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-04-29","event_date":"2022-04-29","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.7,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-05-05","event_date":"2022-05-05","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.55,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-09-13","event_date":"2022-09-13","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.35,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}