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Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-019","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.000573},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"MTD","issuer":"Mettler-Toledo International, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-020","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.002166},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-021","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.005915},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"MDLZ","issuer":"Mondelez International, Inc. - Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-022","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.005696},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"NSRGY","issuer":"Nestle SA Sponsored ADR representing Registered Shares Series B","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-023","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.016932},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":null,"issuer":"Omnicom Group Inc","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-024","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"PBCT","issuer":"People's United Financial, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-025","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"ROLL","issuer":"RBC Bearings Incorporated","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-026","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"SSNC","issuer":"SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-027","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014949},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"SBUX","issuer":"Starbucks Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-028","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.013415},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"TRP","issuer":"TC Energy Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-029","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.012031},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"TMO","issuer":"Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-030","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.000737},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"UTX","issuer":"United Technologies Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-031","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-032","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.000885},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"WY","issuer":"Weyerhaeuser Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-033","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.010637},{"date":"2019-12-18","filed":"2020-01-31","ticker":"ZTS","issuer":"Zoetis Inc. Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20013919-034","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20013919.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.028645}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"98% of 110 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.982, 90% Wilson [0.947, 0.994]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.981818,"ci":[0.946539,0.993965],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":110,"lowest_band_share":0.981818,"lowest_band_ci":[0.946539,0.993965],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":7,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"47 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 31 and trading spans 82% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.033 (identified set [0.021, 0.243]); trade-count HHI 0.029 vs. 95th percentile 0.013 of 110 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.82 [0.80, 0.85]. Top three issuers (AGN, ZTS, JPM) carry at least 3% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":30.548191,"ci":[4.109056,46.980397],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":110,"issuers":47,"hhi_mid":0.032735,"hhi_bounds":[0.021285,0.243365],"n_eff":30.548191,"hhi_count":0.029256,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.013058,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.818745,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.80471,0.85277],"top3_share_lower":0.027415,"top3":["AGN","ZTS","JPM"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 6.4% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.6%).","detail":"Batch-day share 8/44, Wilson [0.11, 0.29]; index of dispersion 10.39 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.064 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.046, p = 0.232.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.181818,"ci":[0.105608,0.294891],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.232,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.65051,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":110,"trade_days":44,"batch_share_trades":0.590909,"batch_day_share":0.181818,"batch_day_ci":[0.105608,0.294891],"dispersion_index":10.385796,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.063636,"proximity_null_mean":0.046001,"proximity_null_p95":0.082727,"proximity_p":0.232,"proximity_nonroutine":0.063636,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 78 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.14% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0014; 90% KP interval [-0.0135, 0.0106]; t_BMP = -0.64, r-bar = 0.018, t_KP = -0.41, Patell Z = -0.53, Corrado Z = -0.29. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0433, 0.0381]. Calendar-time alpha 5.89%/yr (NW t = 0.51, 576 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.001417,"ci":[-0.013453,0.010619],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.657969,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.002494},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.008062},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.002748},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.001417},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.03813},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.058891}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":78,"theta":-0.001417,"ci":[-0.013453,0.010619],"p":0.657969,"t_kp":-0.40847,"rbar":0.018167,"se_cs":0.004625,"se_kp":0.00723,"t_cs":-0.306347,"t_bmp":-0.638479,"patell_z":-0.530711,"corrado_z":-0.286269,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.043337,0.03813],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000234,"se":0.00046,"days":576,"t":0.508284,"p_one_sided":0.305627},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000532,0.000999],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":78,"theta":0.002494,"ci":[-0.004327,0.009314],"p":0.295498,"t_kp":0.539648,"rbar":0.018167,"se_cs":0.002621,"se_kp":0.004097,"t_cs":0.951448,"t_bmp":0.843525,"patell_z":0.837986,"corrado_z":1.660938},"21":{"n":78,"theta":-0.001417,"ci":[-0.013453,0.010619],"p":0.657969,"t_kp":-0.40847,"rbar":0.018167,"se_cs":0.004625,"se_kp":0.00723,"t_cs":-0.306347,"t_bmp":-0.638479,"patell_z":-0.530711,"corrado_z":-0.286269},"63":{"n":78,"theta":0.008062,"ci":[-0.03136,0.047485],"p":0.364094,"t_kp":0.348806,"rbar":0.018167,"se_cs":0.015149,"se_kp":0.023679,"t_cs":0.532215,"t_bmp":0.545219,"patell_z":0.788597,"corrado_z":-0.028085}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 2 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.22, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.250; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.250. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.223607,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.25,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":2,"hits":2,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.223607,1],"p_exact":0.25,"p_magnitude":0.2497,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2014-10-09","move":-0.019834,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-10-10","move":-0.031663,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"6 of 195 trades (3.1%) were disclosed late; median lag 19 days. Another 7 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.031, Wilson [0.016, 0.058]; 90th percentile lag 44 days; longest 972 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.030769,"ci":[0.015993,0.058388],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.066667,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":195,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":6,"late_from_trade":13,"excused_by_notification":7,"late_share":0.030769,"late_ci":[0.015993,0.058388],"median_lag":19,"p90_lag":44,"max_lag":972,"filings":68,"late_filings":3,"late_priced":2,"timely_priced":76,"late_priced_dates":1}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"24% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 14% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSWM; jurisdiction sectors Distillers & Vintners, Health Care, Life & Health Insurance, Tobacco. Dollar share 0.243 (identified set [0.028, 0.802], bootstrap 0.132-0.377); benchmarks S&P 500 0.139, congressional peers 0.119.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.104329,"ci":[-0.006608,0.238607],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":93,"in_jurisdiction_trades":18,"share":0.242942,"share_bounds":[0.027673,0.802473],"share_ci":[0.132006,0.377221],"benchmark_sp500":0.138614,"benchmark_peers":0.11941,"excess":0.104329,"excess_ci":[-0.006608,0.238607],"committees":["HSWM"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Distillers & Vintners","Health Care","Life & Health Insurance","Tobacco"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"17 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 8 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"17 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 8 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":17,"n_other":61,"trade_dates":8,"events":1493}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2019-01-10 (permutation p = 0.100).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2019-01-10","changepoint_LR":8.669614,"changepoint_p":0.1,"tradeday_rate_before":0.032258,"tradeday_rate_after":0.004082}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 51% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0014, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.001417,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.507463,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"8 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 3 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.38, Clopper-Pearson [0.11, 0.71], exact one-sided p = 0.855; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.375,"ci":[0.111113,0.710759],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.855469,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":8,"hits":3,"hit_rate":0.375,"ci":[0.111113,0.710759],"priced":78,"share_followed":0.102564}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"19% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 12%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.191; circular-shift null mean 0.123, 95th pct 0.174, p = 0.050. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0072, p = 0.772.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.190909,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.771988,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.154545,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":110,"cotraded_share":0.190909,"null_mean":0.123416,"null_p95":0.173636,"excess_p":0.05,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.154545,"excess_p_wo_top":0.03,"cotraded_car":-0.007216,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.026492,0.012061],"cotraded_car_p":0.771988}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"6 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +1.28% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0128 [-0.0378, 0.0635], t_KP = 0.52, over 3 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -4.53% (win rate 33%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.012834,"ci":[-0.03783,0.063497],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.3263,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":6,"share_in_round_trips":0.109091,"priced":3,"realized_mean":-0.045297,"realized_win_rate":0.333333,"opening_car":0.012834,"ci":[-0.03783,0.063497],"p":0.3263,"openings_priced":3}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2014-10-09","event_date":"2014-10-09","direction":"sell","move_pct":-1.98,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-10-10","event_date":"2018-10-10","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.17,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}