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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034977-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034977.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.031801},{"date":"2026-10-08","filed":"2026-10-12","ticker":"ADI","issuer":"Analog Devices, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035635-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035635.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.005899},{"date":"2026-10-08","filed":"2026-10-12","ticker":"FDX","issuer":"FedEx Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035635-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035635.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.004972},{"date":"2026-10-08","filed":"2026-10-12","ticker":"HD","issuer":"Home Depot, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035635-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035635.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.049588},{"date":"2026-10-08","filed":"2026-10-12","ticker":"WSM","issuer":"Williams-Sonoma, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035635-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035635.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.054939}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of 91 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 1.000, 90% Wilson [0.971, 1.000]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":1,"ci":[0.971127,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":91,"lowest_band_share":1,"lowest_band_ci":[0.971127,1],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":2,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"63 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 54 and trading spans 86% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.018 (identified set [0.016, 0.137]); trade-count HHI 0.018 vs. 95th percentile 0.015 of 91 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.004). Normalized sector entropy 0.86 [0.84, 0.93]. Top three issuers (ABT, ALL, ESS) carry at least 1% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":54.124183,"ci":[7.324439,63],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":91,"issuers":63,"hhi_mid":0.018476,"hhi_bounds":[0.015873,0.136529],"n_eff":54.124183,"hhi_count":0.018476,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.015336,"peer_benchmark_p":0.004,"sector_entropy":0.85825,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.83856,0.928556],"top3_share_lower":0.007271,"top3":["ABT","ALL","ESS"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"61% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 2.2% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.1%).","detail":"Batch-day share 14/23, Wilson [0.44, 0.76]; index of dispersion 6.02 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.022 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.061, p = 0.960.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.608696,"ci":[0.43851,0.756001],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.96,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":91,"trade_days":23,"batch_share_trades":0.857143,"batch_day_share":0.608696,"batch_day_ci":[0.43851,0.756001],"dispersion_index":6.021454,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.021978,"proximity_null_mean":0.061486,"proximity_null_p95":0.120879,"proximity_p":0.96,"proximity_nonroutine":0.021978,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 83 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.58% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0058; 90% KP interval [-0.0381, 0.0498]; t_BMP = 0.66, r-bar = 0.099, t_KP = 0.21, Patell Z = 0.67, Corrado Z = 0.52. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0734, 0.0869]. Calendar-time alpha -9.85%/yr (NW t = -0.71, 423 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.005811,"ci":[-0.038142,0.049764],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.762116,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.001065},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.017109},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.00435},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.005811},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.086899},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.098498}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":83,"theta":0.005811,"ci":[-0.038142,0.049764],"p":0.41752,"t_kp":0.208905,"rbar":0.098767,"se_cs":0.008315,"se_kp":0.026419,"t_cs":0.698878,"t_bmp":0.663782,"patell_z":0.671721,"corrado_z":0.522444,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.0734,0.086899],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000391,"se":0.000548,"days":423,"t":-0.713125,"p_one_sided":0.762116},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001303,0.000521],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":87,"theta":-0.001065,"ci":[-0.022297,0.020167],"p":0.541581,"t_kp":-0.104725,"rbar":0.098767,"se_cs":0.003934,"se_kp":0.012769,"t_cs":-0.270646,"t_bmp":-0.339905,"patell_z":-0.357003,"corrado_z":0.398819},"21":{"n":83,"theta":0.005811,"ci":[-0.038142,0.049764],"p":0.41752,"t_kp":0.208905,"rbar":0.098767,"se_cs":0.008315,"se_kp":0.026419,"t_cs":0.698878,"t_bmp":0.663782,"patell_z":0.671721,"corrado_z":0.522444},"63":{"n":83,"theta":-0.017109,"ci":[-0.077896,0.043678],"p":0.659373,"t_kp":-0.412221,"rbar":0.098767,"se_cs":0.011499,"se_kp":0.036538,"t_cs":-1.487831,"t_bmp":-1.309802,"patell_z":-1.046016,"corrado_z":-1.079938}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,12.784775],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,12.784775],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,53.140879],"absence_days":4,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 87 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 10 days. Another 28 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.030]; 90th percentile lag 694 days; longest 912 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.03016],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.321839,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":87,"amendment_rows_excluded":6,"late":0,"late_from_trade":28,"excused_by_notification":28,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.03016],"median_lag":10,"p90_lag":694,"max_lag":912,"filings":12,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":1,"timely_priced":82,"late_priced_dates":1}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"13% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 8% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSPW; jurisdiction sectors Air Freight & Logistics, Cargo Ground Transportation, Construction & Engineering, Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment, Construction Materials, Environmental & Facilities Services, Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines, Passenger Airlines, Passenger Ground Transportation, Rail Transportation, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.128 (identified set [0.010, 0.687], bootstrap 0.056-0.224); benchmarks S&P 500 0.075, congressional peers 0.032.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.052659,"ci":[-0.019254,0.148715],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":86,"in_jurisdiction_trades":11,"share":0.127907,"share_bounds":[0.009693,0.687285],"share_ci":[0.055993,0.223962],"benchmark_sp500":0.075248,"benchmark_peers":0.031694,"excess":0.052659,"excess_ci":[-0.019254,0.148715],"committees":["HSPW"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Air Freight & Logistics","Cargo Ground Transportation","Construction & Engineering","Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment","Construction Materials","Environmental & Facilities Services","Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Passenger Airlines","Passenger Ground Transportation","Rail Transportation","Water Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"8 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 75 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"8 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 75 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":8,"n_other":75,"events":1488}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2023-06-20, trading ran at 1.37 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2023-06-20, trading ran at 1.37 times its earlier rate. Change point 2020-11-26 (p = 0.236).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":1.366097,"ci":[0.936486,2.012398],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Raw Story: 28 transactions disclosed late","url":"https://www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/congress-stock-act/"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2020-11-26","changepoint_LR":6.470523,"changepoint_p":0.236,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.01437,"scrutiny_date":"2023-06-20","rate_ratio":1.366097,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.936486,2.012398]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 73% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0058, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.005811,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.731343,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"11 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 4 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.36, Clopper-Pearson [0.14, 0.65], exact one-sided p = 0.887; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.363636,"ci":[0.135075,0.650188],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.886719,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.363636,"ci":[0.135075,0.650188],"priced":87,"share_followed":0.126437}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"15% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 12%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.154; circular-shift null mean 0.117, 95th pct 0.165, p = 0.220. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0112, p = 0.328.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.153846,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.327898,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.142857,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":91,"cotraded_share":0.153846,"null_mean":0.117105,"null_p95":0.164835,"excess_p":0.22,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.142857,"excess_p_wo_top":0.3,"cotraded_car":0.011163,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.057453,0.07978],"cotraded_car_p":0.327898}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"6 round trips but fewer than three priced.","detail":"6 round trips but fewer than three priced.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":6,"share_in_round_trips":0.131868}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}