{"id":"L000566","trades":[{"date":"2019-08-30","filed":"2019-09-05","ticker":"FMBA","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20012269-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012269.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2020-03-10","filed":"2020-03-17","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016256-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016256.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.292695},{"date":"2022-07-12","filed":"2022-07-21","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021415-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021415.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.060023},{"date":"2022-10-20","filed":"2022-11-10","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021968-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021968.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.103145},{"date":"2023-01-20","filed":"2023-02-05","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022370-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022370.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.031609},{"date":"2023-04-20","filed":"2023-04-30","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022811-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022811.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026138},{"date":"2023-06-01","filed":"2023-06-02","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023057-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023057.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.222321},{"date":"2023-07-20","filed":"2023-08-05","ticker":"FMBA","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20023449-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023449.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2023-10-20","filed":"2023-10-21","ticker":"FMBA","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20023887-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023887.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-01-22","filed":"2024-02-14","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024505-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024505.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.020683},{"date":"2024-04-20","filed":"2024-04-20","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024901-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024901.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.019022},{"date":"2024-06-06","filed":"2024-06-09","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025238-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025238.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.086322},{"date":"2024-07-20","filed":"2024-07-21","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025507-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025507.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.040957},{"date":"2024-10-20","filed":"2024-11-07","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026165-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026165.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.006824},{"date":"2025-01-20","filed":"2025-01-24","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026650-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026650.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004975},{"date":"2025-04-20","filed":"2025-04-27","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030234-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030234.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.062111},{"date":"2025-06-05","filed":"2025-06-08","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030480-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030480.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.073778},{"date":"2025-07-20","filed":"2025-07-25","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030730-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030730.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.040146},{"date":"2025-10-20","filed":"2025-10-27","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033346-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20033346.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.051129},{"date":"2026-01-20","filed":"2026-01-23","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033857-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033857.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.02173},{"date":"2026-04-20","filed":"2026-04-24","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034401-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034401.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.002204},{"date":"2026-06-04","filed":"2026-06-05","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034726-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034726.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.0405},{"date":"2026-07-20","filed":"2026-07-24","ticker":"FMAO","issuer":"Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035065-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035065.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.017375}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"83% of 23 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.826, 90% Wilson [0.664, 0.919]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.826087,"ci":[0.664098,0.919434],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"lowest_band_share":0.826087,"lowest_band_ci":[0.664098,0.919434],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":3,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"2 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 1.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.690 (identified set [0.500, 0.923]); trade-count HHI 0.773 vs. 95th percentile 0.055 of 23 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy nan [nan, nan]. Top three issuers (FMAO, FMBA) carry at least 100% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":1.449393,"ci":[1.083818,2],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"issuers":2,"hhi_mid":0.689944,"hhi_bounds":[0.5,0.922664],"n_eff":1.449393,"hhi_count":0.773157,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.05482,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":null,"sector_entropy_ci":[null,null],"top3_share_lower":1,"top3":["FMAO","FMBA"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"0% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 30% of trades look routine; 13.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.2%).","detail":"Batch-day share 0/23, Wilson [0.00, 0.11]; index of dispersion 0.99 (chi-square p = 0.608); routine share 0.30 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.130 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.072, p = 0.224.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.105251],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.224,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.65051,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"trade_days":23,"batch_share_trades":0,"batch_day_share":0,"batch_day_ci":[0,0.105251],"dispersion_index":0.990535,"dispersion_p":0.607733,"routine_share":0.304348,"proximity_share":0.130435,"proximity_null_mean":0.07197,"proximity_null_p95":0.173913,"proximity_p":0.224,"proximity_nonroutine":0.1875,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 20 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.09% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0209; 90% KP interval [-1.7799, 1.8217]; t_BMP = 0.86, r-bar = 0.990, t_KP = 0.02, Patell Z = 0.93, Corrado Z = 0.33. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0274, 0.1118]. Calendar-time alpha 38.55%/yr (NW t = 1.04, 420 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.020885,"ci":[-1.779897,1.821667],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.49236,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.030987},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.037094},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.009256},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.111802},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.38547}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":20,"theta":0.020885,"ci":[-1.779897,1.821667],"p":0.49236,"t_kp":0.019406,"rbar":0.99,"se_cs":0.023399,"se_kp":1.041436,"t_cs":0.892581,"t_bmp":0.863712,"patell_z":0.930184,"corrado_z":0.326881,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.027384,0.111802],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.00153,"se":0.001478,"days":420,"t":1.035164,"p_one_sided":0.150296},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001025,0.004085],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":20,"theta":0.030987,"ci":[-1.537093,1.599066],"p":0.487305,"t_kp":0.03225,"rbar":0.99,"se_cs":0.020375,"se_kp":0.906859,"t_cs":1.520817,"t_bmp":1.435391,"patell_z":2.878471,"corrado_z":0.407342},"21":{"n":20,"theta":0.020885,"ci":[-1.779897,1.821667],"p":0.49236,"t_kp":0.019406,"rbar":0.99,"se_cs":0.023399,"se_kp":1.041436,"t_cs":0.892581,"t_bmp":0.863712,"patell_z":0.930184,"corrado_z":0.326881},"63":{"n":20,"theta":0.037094,"ci":[-2.667319,2.741508],"p":0.492788,"t_kp":0.018318,"rbar":0.99,"se_cs":0.03514,"se_kp":1.564029,"t_cs":1.055609,"t_bmp":0.815319,"patell_z":0.634934,"corrado_z":0.241955}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 7 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.29, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 0.66]; exact one-sided p = 0.938; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.801. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.285714,"ci":[0.053376,0.658739],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.9375,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":7,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.285714,"ci":[0.053376,0.658739],"p_exact":0.9375,"p_magnitude":0.8012,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2020-03-11","move":-0.048749,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-12","move":-0.095677,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-13","move":0.085486,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-16","move":-0.109424,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-17","move":0.053992,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-07-24","move":-0.022662,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2026-06-05","move":-0.025809,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 23 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 5 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.105]; 90th percentile lag 18 days; longest 23 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.105251],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.105251],"median_lag":5,"p90_lag":17.6,"max_lag":23,"filings":23,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":20,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 28% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSIF; jurisdiction sectors Automobile Manufacturers, Communication Services, Energy, Health Care, Interactive Media & Services, Tobacco, Utilities. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.275, congressional peers 0.274.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.275248,"ci":[-0.275248,-0.275248],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":20,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0.275248,"benchmark_peers":0.273718,"excess":-0.275248,"excess_ci":[-0.275248,-0.275248],"committees":["HSIF"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Automobile Manufacturers","Communication Services","Energy","Health Care","Interactive Media & Services","Tobacco","Utilities"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 20 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 20 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":20,"events":2882}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2022-07-12 (permutation p = 0.108).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2022-07-12","changepoint_LR":8.14779,"changepoint_p":0.108,"tradeday_rate_before":0.002677,"tradeday_rate_after":0.015238}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 91% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0209, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.020885,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.910448,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"6 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 4 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.67, Clopper-Pearson [0.27, 0.94], exact one-sided p = 0.344; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.271338,0.93715],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.34375,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":6,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.666667,"ci":[0.271338,0.93715],"priced":20,"share_followed":0.3}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"0% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 0%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.000; circular-shift null mean 0.000, 95th pct 0.000, p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"cotraded_share":0,"null_mean":0,"null_p95":0,"excess_p":1,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0,"excess_p_wo_top":1}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +2.09% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0209 [-1.7799, 1.8217], t_KP = 0.02.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.020885,"ci":[-1.779897,1.821667],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.49236,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":23,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.020885,"family_ci":[-1.779897,1.821667],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-11","event_date":"2020-03-11","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.87,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-12","event_date":"2020-03-12","direction":"buy","move_pct":-9.57,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-13","event_date":"2020-03-13","direction":"buy","move_pct":8.55,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-16","event_date":"2020-03-16","direction":"buy","move_pct":-10.94,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-17","event_date":"2020-03-17","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.4,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-07-24","event_date":"2024-07-24","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.27,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2026-06-05","event_date":"2026-06-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.58,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}