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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.991228,"ci":[0.973842,0.997093],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":228,"lowest_band_share":0.991228,"lowest_band_ci":[0.973842,0.997093],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":31,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"113 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 75 and trading spans 85% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.013 (identified set [0.009, 0.120]); trade-count HHI 0.011 vs. 95th percentile 0.008 of 228 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.85 [0.80, 0.90]. Top three issuers (AAPL, TSM, CRM) carry at least 1% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":75.196793,"ci":[8.305,112.896383],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":228,"issuers":113,"hhi_mid":0.013298,"hhi_bounds":[0.008858,0.120409],"n_eff":75.196793,"hhi_count":0.011234,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.007926,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.852585,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.798439,0.896549],"top3_share_lower":0.013284,"top3":["AAPL","TSM","CRM"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"62% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 13.6% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 8.2%).","detail":"Batch-day share 29/47, Wilson [0.50, 0.72]; index of dispersion 18.31 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.136 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.082, p = 0.100.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.617021,"ci":[0.49706,0.724243],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.1,"p_holm":0.8,"q_bh":0.476667,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":228,"trade_days":47,"batch_share_trades":0.885965,"batch_day_share":0.617021,"batch_day_ci":[0.49706,0.724243],"dispersion_index":18.309722,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.135965,"proximity_null_mean":0.082094,"proximity_null_p95":0.149123,"proximity_p":0.1,"proximity_nonroutine":0.135965,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 219 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.20% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0020; 90% KP interval [-0.0248, 0.0289]; t_BMP = 0.16, r-bar = 0.021, t_KP = 0.07, Patell Z = 0.18, Corrado Z = 0.42. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.1085, 0.0922]. Calendar-time alpha -1.21%/yr (NW t = -0.12, 342 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.002031,"ci":[-0.024793,0.028854],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.546031,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.004323},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.009464},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.002092},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.002031},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.092154},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.012072}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":219,"theta":0.002031,"ci":[-0.024793,0.028854],"p":0.47348,"t_kp":0.066601,"rbar":0.021043,"se_cs":0.006797,"se_kp":0.016238,"t_cs":0.298785,"t_bmp":0.159113,"patell_z":0.177418,"corrado_z":0.417812,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.108464,0.092154],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000048,"se":0.000414,"days":342,"t":-0.11564,"p_one_sided":0.546031},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000732,0.000636],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":219,"theta":-0.004323,"ci":[-0.017958,0.009312],"p":0.683562,"t_kp":-0.478355,"rbar":0.021043,"se_cs":0.003455,"se_kp":0.008254,"t_cs":-1.251117,"t_bmp":-1.142817,"patell_z":-1.385886,"corrado_z":-1.538798},"21":{"n":219,"theta":0.002031,"ci":[-0.024793,0.028854],"p":0.47348,"t_kp":0.066601,"rbar":0.021043,"se_cs":0.006797,"se_kp":0.016238,"t_cs":0.298785,"t_bmp":0.159113,"patell_z":0.177418,"corrado_z":0.417812},"63":{"n":219,"theta":-0.009464,"ci":[-0.057715,0.038788],"p":0.594969,"t_kp":-0.240638,"rbar":0.021043,"se_cs":0.012227,"se_kp":0.02921,"t_cs":-0.774006,"t_bmp":-0.574897,"patell_z":-0.609438,"corrado_z":0.032715}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.500. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.5,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2024-11-06","move":0.024866,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,2.288076],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,2.288076],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,11.385851],"absence_days":2,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"211 of 257 trades (82.1%) were disclosed late; median lag 274 days.","detail":"Late share 0.821, Wilson [0.778, 0.857]; 90th percentile lag 447 days; longest 447 days. Late-minus-timely signed CAR 0.0134, p = 0.186.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.821012,"ci":[0.778398,0.856937],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.186,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.4935,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":257,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":211,"late_from_trade":211,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.821012,"late_ci":[0.778398,0.856937],"median_lag":274,"p90_lag":447,"max_lag":447,"filings":2,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":177,"timely_priced":42,"late_priced_dates":38,"late_minus_timely_car":0.01336,"late_minus_timely_ci":[-0.010233,0.033274],"late_minus_timely_p":0.186}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 0% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAP, HSED; jurisdiction sectors Education Services, Human Resource & Employment Services. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.004, congressional peers 0.003.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.00396,"ci":[-0.00396,-0.00396],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":219,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0.00396,"benchmark_peers":0.003037,"excess":-0.00396,"excess_ci":[-0.00396,-0.00396],"committees":["HSAP","HSED"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Education Services","Human Resource & Employment Services"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 219 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 219 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":219,"events":866}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2026-02-02 (permutation p = 0.058).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2026-02-02","changepoint_LR":7.982155,"changepoint_p":0.058,"tradeday_rate_before":0.12012,"tradeday_rate_after":0.466667}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 61% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0020, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.002031,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.61194,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"71 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 40 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.56, Clopper-Pearson [0.46, 0.66], exact one-sided p = 0.171; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.56338,"ci":[0.458929,0.663741],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.171235,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":71,"hits":40,"hit_rate":0.56338,"ci":[0.458929,0.663741],"priced":219,"share_followed":0.324201}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"28% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 23%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.281; circular-shift null mean 0.230, 95th pct 0.272, p = 0.050. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0029, p = 0.323.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.280702,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.3227,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.25,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":228,"cotraded_share":0.280702,"null_mean":0.229798,"null_p95":0.272368,"excess_p":0.05,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.25,"excess_p_wo_top":0.16,"cotraded_car":0.002894,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.026639,0.032426],"cotraded_car_p":0.3227}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"44 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -2.68% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0268 [-0.0680, 0.0145], t_KP = -1.13, over 43 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -6.49% (win rate 37%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.026775,"ci":[-0.068015,0.014464],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.866957,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":44,"share_in_round_trips":0.385965,"priced":43,"realized_mean":-0.064913,"realized_win_rate":0.372093,"opening_car":-0.026775,"ci":[-0.068015,0.014464],"p":0.866957,"openings_priced":43}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2024-11-06","event_date":"2024-11-06","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.49,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}