{"id":"L000597","trades":[{"date":"2023-12-29","filed":"2024-01-04","ticker":"BABA","issuer":"Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary Share","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024249-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024249.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.055374},{"date":"2023-12-29","filed":"2025-08-11","ticker":"BABA","issuer":"Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary Share","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20030875-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030875.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.055374},{"date":"2024-05-06","filed":"2024-05-25","ticker":null,"issuer":"TUHURA Biosciences, Inc.","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20025116-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025116.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-07-05","filed":"2024-08-05","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025546-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025546.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.013058},{"date":"2024-07-05","filed":"2024-08-05","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025546-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025546.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.013058},{"date":"2024-07-31","filed":"2024-09-14","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"option","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025714-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025714.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009859},{"date":"2024-09-10","filed":"2024-09-14","ticker":"JPM","issuer":"JP Morgan Chase & Co. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025714-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025714.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003717},{"date":"2024-10-07","filed":"2024-11-21","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026063-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026063.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014121},{"date":"2024-10-18","filed":"2024-11-21","ticker":"HURA","issuer":"TUHURA Biosciences, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"exchange","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026063-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026063.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-10-21","filed":"2024-11-21","ticker":"PFE","issuer":"Pfizer, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026063-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026063.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.001139},{"date":"2024-11-08","filed":"2024-11-21","ticker":"GEV","issuer":"GE Vernova Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026063-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026063.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.004772},{"date":"2024-11-25","filed":"2025-01-07","ticker":"HURA","issuer":"TUHURA Biosciences, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026513-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026513.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.623201},{"date":"2024-11-29","filed":"2025-01-07","ticker":"WBD","issuer":"Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - Series A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20026513-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026513.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-11-29","filed":"2025-08-11","ticker":"WBD","issuer":"Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - Series A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20030875-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030875.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2025-05-08","filed":"2025-06-22","ticker":"NVO","issuer":"Novo Nordisk A/S Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030458-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030458.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.004707},{"date":"2025-07-13","filed":"2025-08-09","ticker":"HURA","issuer":"TUHURA Biosciences, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030810-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030810.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.097304},{"date":"2026-05-11","filed":"2026-07-19","ticker":"NOK","issuer":"Nokia Corporation Sponsored American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20034694-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.012613},{"date":"2026-06-02","filed":"2026-07-19","ticker":"BAC","issuer":"Bank of America Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20034694-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.070178},{"date":"2026-06-02","filed":"2026-07-19","ticker":"NOK","issuer":"Nokia Corporation Sponsored American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20034694-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.163627},{"date":"2026-06-16","filed":"2026-07-19","ticker":"GE","issuer":"GE Aerospace Common Stock","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034694-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.065704},{"date":"2026-07-06","filed":"2026-07-19","ticker":"NOK","issuer":"Nokia Corporation Sponsored American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034694-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.07743},{"date":"2026-07-06","filed":"2026-07-19","ticker":"NOK","issuer":"Nokia Corporation Sponsored American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"option","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034694-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.07743},{"date":"2026-08-24","filed":"2026-10-16","ticker":"BAC","issuer":"Bank of America Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035490-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035490.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.011718},{"date":"2026-09-18","filed":"2026-10-16","ticker":"NOKBF","issuer":"NOKIA A SHS","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035490-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035490.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.054924}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"41% of 22 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.409, 90% Wilson [0.256, 0.582]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = -0.46 (within-issuer permutation p = 0.778); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.409091,"ci":[0.256037,0.582056],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.778,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":22,"lowest_band_share":0.409091,"lowest_band_ci":[0.256037,0.582056],"share_over_50k":0.227273,"max_z":0.875384,"size_gap":-0.458128,"size_gap_p":0.778,"event_linked":3,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"12 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 5 and trading spans 53% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.216 (identified set [0.119, 0.432]); trade-count HHI 0.112 vs. 95th percentile 0.054 of 22 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.53 [0.52, 0.57]. Top three issuers (BABA, AAPL, BAC) carry at least 37% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":4.637058,"ci":[2.313584,8.392606],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":22,"issuers":12,"hhi_mid":0.215654,"hhi_bounds":[0.119153,0.43223],"n_eff":4.637058,"hhi_count":0.11157,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.053719,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.534711,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.518102,0.572597],"top3_share_lower":0.374254,"top3":["BABA","AAPL","BAC"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"0% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 13.6% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 8.2%).","detail":"Batch-day share 0/17, Wilson [0.00, 0.14]; index of dispersion 1.45 (chi-square p = 4.31e-14); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.136 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.082, p = 0.278.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.137299],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.278,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.709893,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":22,"trade_days":17,"batch_share_trades":0,"batch_day_share":0,"batch_day_ci":[0,0.137299],"dispersion_index":1.448692,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.136364,"proximity_null_mean":0.082073,"proximity_null_p95":0.227273,"proximity_p":0.278,"proximity_nonroutine":0.136364,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 20 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 8.17% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0817; 90% KP interval [-0.0968, 0.2603]; t_BMP = 1.14, r-bar = 0.191, t_KP = 0.48, Patell Z = 1.52, Corrado Z = 1.24. Dollar-weighted identified set [0.0291, 0.1357]. Calendar-time alpha 67.90%/yr (NW t = 0.97, 240 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.081736,"ci":[-0.096848,0.260321],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.319005,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.050123},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.134529},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.083089},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.135709},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.679004}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":20,"theta":0.081736,"ci":[-0.096848,0.260321],"p":0.319005,"t_kp":0.478134,"rbar":0.190976,"se_cs":0.043179,"se_kp":0.10328,"t_cs":1.892963,"t_bmp":1.143646,"patell_z":1.516752,"corrado_z":1.243825,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[0.029095,0.135709],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.002694,"se":0.002781,"days":240,"t":0.968791,"p_one_sided":0.166325},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.002115,0.007504],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":20,"theta":0.050123,"ci":[-0.085025,0.18527],"p":0.317185,"t_kp":0.483349,"rbar":0.190976,"se_cs":0.032677,"se_kp":0.078159,"t_cs":1.533898,"t_bmp":1.156121,"patell_z":1.42972,"corrado_z":1.517393},"21":{"n":20,"theta":0.081736,"ci":[-0.096848,0.260321],"p":0.319005,"t_kp":0.478134,"rbar":0.190976,"se_cs":0.043179,"se_kp":0.10328,"t_cs":1.892963,"t_bmp":1.143646,"patell_z":1.516752,"corrado_z":1.243825},"63":{"n":18,"theta":0.134529,"ci":[-0.067826,0.336885],"p":0.157469,"t_kp":1.035506,"rbar":0.190976,"se_cs":0.050772,"se_kp":0.116323,"t_cs":2.649677,"t_bmp":2.372427,"patell_z":2.222758,"corrado_z":1.401257}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 2 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.03, 0.97]; exact one-sided p = 0.750; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.757. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.025321,0.974679],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.75,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":2,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.025321,0.974679],"p_exact":0.75,"p_magnitude":0.7566,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2024-08-05","move":-0.029124,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2026-06-05","move":-0.025809,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,13.473925],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,13.473925],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,18.094214],"absence_days":8,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 of 22 trades (13.6%) were disclosed late; median lag 32 days. Another 1 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.136, Wilson [0.056, 0.297]; 90th percentile lag 47 days; longest 69 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.136364,"ci":[0.055841,0.296531],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.181818,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":22,"amendment_rows_excluded":2,"late":3,"late_from_trade":4,"excused_by_notification":1,"late_share":0.136364,"late_ci":[0.055841,0.296531],"median_lag":32,"p90_lag":47,"max_lag":69,"filings":10,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":4,"timely_priced":16,"late_priced_dates":3}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"14% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 29% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSHA, HSIF, HSJU; jurisdiction sectors Automobile Manufacturers, Broadline Retail, Communication Services, Energy, Health Care, Interactive Media & Services, Pharmaceuticals, Tobacco, Utilities. Dollar share 0.137 (identified set [0.056, 0.305], bootstrap 0.008-0.371); benchmarks S&P 500 0.279, congressional peers 0.292.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.155381,"ci":[-0.283882,0.079039],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":20,"in_jurisdiction_trades":4,"share":0.136652,"share_bounds":[0.056211,0.305076],"share_ci":[0.00815,0.371071],"benchmark_sp500":0.279208,"benchmark_peers":0.292032,"excess":-0.155381,"excess_ci":[-0.283882,0.079039],"committees":["HSHA","HSIF","HSJU"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Automobile Manufacturers","Broadline Retail","Communication Services","Energy","Health Care","Interactive Media & Services","Pharmaceuticals","Tobacco","Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"4 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 16 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"4 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 16 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":4,"n_other":16,"events":4993}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2026-05-11 (permutation p = 0.254).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2026-05-11","changepoint_LR":5.852032,"changepoint_p":0.254,"tradeday_rate_before":0.016234,"tradeday_rate_after":0.063158}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 100% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0817, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.081736,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":1,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"3 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.67, Clopper-Pearson [0.14, 0.98], exact one-sided p = 0.500; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"priced":20,"share_followed":0.15}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"32% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 21%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.318; circular-shift null mean 0.206, 95th pct 0.364, p = 0.150. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0431, p = 0.077.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.318182,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.076808,"p_holm":0.614466,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.272727,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":22,"cotraded_share":0.318182,"null_mean":0.205693,"null_p95":0.363636,"excess_p":0.15,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.272727,"excess_p_wo_top":0.19,"cotraded_car":0.043083,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.016521,0.102686],"cotraded_car_p":0.076808}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +8.17% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0817 [-0.0968, 0.2603], t_KP = 0.48.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.081736,"ci":[-0.096848,0.260321],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.319005,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":22,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.081736,"family_ci":[-0.096848,0.260321],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 round trips but fewer than three priced.","detail":"1 round trips but fewer than three priced.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":1,"share_in_round_trips":0.090909}},{"id":"T16","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4 option trades (17% of all reported trades); the underlying moved +16.65% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"4 option trades (17% of all reported trades); the underlying moved +16.65% in the trade's favour over a month.","estimate":{"label":"Option-trade signed CAR","value":0.166502,"ci":[-0.127898,0.460903],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.117233,"p_holm":0.820628,"q_bh":0.42628,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":4,"option_share":0.166667,"option_car":0.166502,"option_ci":[-0.127898,0.460903],"option_p":0.117233,"priced":4}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2024-08-05","event_date":"2024-08-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.91,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2026-06-05","event_date":"2026-06-05","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.58,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}