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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-024","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002708},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-025","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.020608},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-026","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.020608},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-027","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.061154},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-028","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.061154},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"ORLY","issuer":"O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-029","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.033369},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"PH","issuer":"Parker-Hannifin Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-030","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.041115},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"PH","issuer":"Parker-Hannifin Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-031","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.041115},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"PM","issuer":"Philip Morris International Inc Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-032","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.038012},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"PG","issuer":"Procter & Gamble Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-033","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.016848},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"CRM","issuer":"Salesforce, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-034","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.012328},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-035","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.036143},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"TMO","issuer":"Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-037","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.054194},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"UBER","issuer":"Uber Technologies, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-038","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.012432},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"URI","issuer":"United Rentals, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-039","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.000924},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-040","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.056585},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"V","issuer":"Visa Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-041","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.003187},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":"DIS","issuer":"Walt Disney Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-042","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.088278},{"date":"2025-03-27","filed":"2025-04-08","ticker":null,"issuer":"Zoetis Inc. Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20029084-043","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029084.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2025-05-09","filed":"2025-05-13","ticker":"KR","issuer":"Kroger Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[250001,500000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030207-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030207.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.046382}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"77% of 166 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.765, 90% Wilson [0.707, 0.815]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.76506,"ci":[0.706952,0.814667],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":166,"lowest_band_share":0.76506,"lowest_band_ci":[0.706952,0.814667],"share_over_50k":0.018072,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":27,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"55 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 17 and trading spans 82% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.058 (identified set [0.027, 0.173]); trade-count HHI 0.031 vs. 95th percentile 0.010 of 166 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.82 [0.79, 0.88]. Top three issuers (KR, MSFT, AMZN) carry at least 11% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":17.269854,"ci":[5.770147,37.16589],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":166,"issuers":55,"hhi_mid":0.057904,"hhi_bounds":[0.026906,0.173306],"n_eff":17.269854,"hhi_count":0.031209,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.009943,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.823331,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.789283,0.876369],"top3_share_lower":0.109917,"top3":["KR","MSFT","AMZN"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"27% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 2% of trades look routine; 16.3% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.7%).","detail":"Batch-day share 13/49, Wilson [0.18, 0.38]; index of dispersion 13.44 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.02 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.163 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.077, p = 0.014.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.265306,"ci":[0.175851,0.379322],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.014,"p_holm":0.126,"q_bh":0.309833,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":166,"trade_days":49,"batch_share_trades":0.668675,"batch_day_share":0.265306,"batch_day_ci":[0.175851,0.379322],"dispersion_index":13.435405,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.024096,"proximity_share":0.162651,"proximity_null_mean":0.07678,"proximity_null_p95":0.126506,"proximity_p":0.014,"proximity_nonroutine":0.166667,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 164 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.02% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0002; 90% KP interval [-0.0288, 0.0292]; t_BMP = 0.19, r-bar = 0.040, t_KP = 0.07, Patell Z = 0.21, Corrado Z = -0.26. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0302, 0.0599]. Calendar-time alpha -3.57%/yr (NW t = -0.27, 507 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.000194,"ci":[-0.028786,0.029175],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.604853,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001088},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.00152},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.000419},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.002147},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.059923},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.035719}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":164,"theta":0.000194,"ci":[-0.028786,0.029175],"p":0.472587,"t_kp":0.068874,"rbar":0.040495,"se_cs":0.006224,"se_kp":0.017519,"t_cs":0.031208,"t_bmp":0.193846,"patell_z":0.207549,"corrado_z":-0.264592,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.030171,0.059923],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000142,"se":0.000533,"days":507,"t":-0.265928,"p_one_sided":0.604853},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001023,0.00074],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":164,"theta":0.001088,"ci":[-0.013764,0.01594],"p":0.422446,"t_kp":0.195951,"rbar":0.040495,"se_cs":0.00319,"se_kp":0.008978,"t_cs":0.341031,"t_bmp":0.551506,"patell_z":0.629731,"corrado_z":0.65806},"21":{"n":164,"theta":0.000194,"ci":[-0.028786,0.029175],"p":0.472587,"t_kp":0.068874,"rbar":0.040495,"se_cs":0.006224,"se_kp":0.017519,"t_cs":0.031208,"t_bmp":0.193846,"patell_z":0.207549,"corrado_z":-0.264592},"63":{"n":164,"theta":0.00152,"ci":[-0.054277,0.057318],"p":0.509301,"t_kp":-0.023352,"rbar":0.040495,"se_cs":0.011984,"se_kp":0.03373,"t_cs":0.126874,"t_bmp":-0.065724,"patell_z":-0.071745,"corrado_z":-0.751622}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.497. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.4969,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2025-04-03","move":-0.049281,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":41,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,2.192533],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,2.192533],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,7.590613],"absence_days":5,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 170 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 72 days. Another 88 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.016]; 90th percentile lag 561 days; longest 580 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.015666],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.517647,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":170,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":88,"excused_by_notification":88,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.015666],"median_lag":72,"p90_lag":561.4,"max_lag":580,"filings":9,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":164,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"23% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 28% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSIF; jurisdiction sectors Automobile Manufacturers, Communication Services, Energy, Health Care, Interactive Media & Services, Tobacco, Utilities. Dollar share 0.231 (identified set [0.061, 0.574], bootstrap 0.126-0.343); benchmarks S&P 500 0.275, congressional peers 0.274.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.044134,"ci":[-0.148799,0.067741],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":164,"in_jurisdiction_trades":43,"share":0.231113,"share_bounds":[0.060539,0.574087],"share_ci":[0.126448,0.342989],"benchmark_sp500":0.275248,"benchmark_peers":0.273718,"excess":-0.044134,"excess_ci":[-0.148799,0.067741],"committees":["HSIF"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Automobile Manufacturers","Communication Services","Energy","Health Care","Interactive Media & Services","Tobacco","Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"35 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +0.29% in the trade's favour, +0.35% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = 0.0029; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0035 [-0.0334, 0.0428], p = 0.486; mean pre-trade drift psi = 0.0197.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.003489,"ci":[-0.033386,0.04279],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.486,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.848154,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.002636},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.020337},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.017681},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":35,"n_other":129,"theta9":0.002938,"diff":0.003489,"ci":[-0.033386,0.04279],"p":0.486,"pre_trade_drift":0.019728,"pre_trade_drift_significant":true,"events":2882,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":1212,"committee_markup":840,"committee_reported":637,"became_law":193},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.213415,"trade_dates":20,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 2.05 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 2.05 times its earlier rate. Change point 2023-12-19 (p = 0.138).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":2.054507,"ci":[1.564878,2.690053],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Raw Story: members of the 118th Congress who violated the STOCK Act","url":"https://www.rawstory.com/congress-stock/"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2023-12-19","changepoint_LR":7.286163,"changepoint_p":0.138,"tradeday_rate_before":0.119342,"tradeday_rate_after":0.054945,"scrutiny_date":"2024-09-30","rate_ratio":2.054507,"rate_ratio_ci":[1.564878,2.690053]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 58% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0002, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.000194,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.58209,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"49 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 24 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.49, Clopper-Pearson [0.37, 0.62], exact one-sided p = 0.612; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.489796,"ci":[0.365244,0.61531],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.612275,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":49,"hits":24,"hit_rate":0.489796,"ci":[0.365244,0.61531],"priced":164,"share_followed":0.29878}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"31% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 24%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.307; circular-shift null mean 0.235, 95th pct 0.343, p = 0.140. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0030, p = 0.390.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.307229,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.389667,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.289157,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":166,"cotraded_share":0.307229,"null_mean":0.235001,"null_p95":0.343373,"excess_p":0.14,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.289157,"excess_p_wo_top":0.13,"cotraded_car":0.002957,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.02429,0.030204],"cotraded_car_p":0.389667}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"41% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +0.36% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0036 [-0.0317, 0.0388], t_KP = 0.24; family minus self 0.0057 [-0.0098, 0.0268], p = 0.260.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.003584,"ci":[-0.031679,0.038846],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.40412,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":68,"family_share":0.409639,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.003584,"family_ci":[-0.031679,0.038846],"diff":0.005731,"diff_ci":[-0.009782,0.026767],"diff_p":0.26}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"32 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -1.61% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0161 [-0.0547, 0.0226], t_KP = -0.93, over 32 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -3.26% (win rate 25%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.016051,"ci":[-0.054655,0.022553],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.819021,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":32,"share_in_round_trips":0.385542,"priced":32,"realized_mean":-0.032593,"realized_win_rate":0.25,"opening_car":-0.016051,"ci":[-0.054655,0.022553],"p":0.819021,"openings_priced":32}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-03","event_date":"2025-04-03","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.93,"trade":"41 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}