{"id":"M000355","trades":[{"date":"2016-06-09","filed":"2017-05-15","ticker":null,"issuer":"IR-Ingersoll-Rand Plc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"S43b7eaea-8886-47c7-ae19-f714dacbd020-003","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/43b7eaea-8886-47c7-ae19-f714dacbd020/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2017-02-02","filed":"2017-05-15","ticker":null,"issuer":"IR-Ingersoll-Rand Plc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"S43b7eaea-8886-47c7-ae19-f714dacbd020-002","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/43b7eaea-8886-47c7-ae19-f714dacbd020/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2017-04-21","filed":"2017-05-15","ticker":null,"issuer":"AMCP Security Holdings, L.P. Incentive Units (parent of Centerra)","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"S43b7eaea-8886-47c7-ae19-f714dacbd020-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/43b7eaea-8886-47c7-ae19-f714dacbd020/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2017-09-07","filed":"2018-05-15","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"S044ee3b6-5fd0-48cc-a54a-a60e79d6a4f0-003","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/044ee3b6-5fd0-48cc-a54a-a60e79d6a4f0/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.016644},{"date":"2017-12-05","filed":"2018-05-15","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"S044ee3b6-5fd0-48cc-a54a-a60e79d6a4f0-002","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/044ee3b6-5fd0-48cc-a54a-a60e79d6a4f0/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014773},{"date":"2018-03-05","filed":"2018-05-15","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"S044ee3b6-5fd0-48cc-a54a-a60e79d6a4f0-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/044ee3b6-5fd0-48cc-a54a-a60e79d6a4f0/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.018611},{"date":"2018-06-01","filed":"2018-06-13","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"S3eb0d309-b3be-4678-b762-2f9137928430-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/3eb0d309-b3be-4678-b762-2f9137928430/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.002045},{"date":"2018-09-06","filed":"2018-09-14","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"Sf02256a2-006a-4b22-96f6-79561a1f3a91-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/f02256a2-006a-4b22-96f6-79561a1f3a91/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.061953},{"date":"2018-12-05","filed":"2018-12-17","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"S13374d99-cbb7-4f1c-a630-2125b6c108ab-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/13374d99-cbb7-4f1c-a630-2125b6c108ab/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.062175},{"date":"2019-03-05","filed":"2019-03-06","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"S78a66c3d-1d51-4b8f-ac8a-12ca25b75563-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/78a66c3d-1d51-4b8f-ac8a-12ca25b75563/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003925},{"date":"2019-06-01","filed":"2019-06-21","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"S54feb2cd-c07e-499e-a649-964d9b6fb1d0-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/54feb2cd-c07e-499e-a649-964d9b6fb1d0/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.005885},{"date":"2019-06-03","filed":"2019-06-14","ticker":"VMC","issuer":"Vulcan Materials Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[250001,500000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"S00f9f9ee-b87b-4736-950b-41f9a6cfe2b4-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/00f9f9ee-b87b-4736-950b-41f9a6cfe2b4/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001156},{"date":"2019-06-03","filed":"2019-06-14","ticker":"IR","issuer":"Ingersoll-Rand Plc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[250001,500000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"S00f9f9ee-b87b-4736-950b-41f9a6cfe2b4-002","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/00f9f9ee-b87b-4736-950b-41f9a6cfe2b4/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.039032},{"date":"2019-09-01","filed":"2019-09-16","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"S1867563f-44a7-41d0-8e2e-96ddf747eae4-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/1867563f-44a7-41d0-8e2e-96ddf747eae4/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.033928},{"date":"2019-12-04","filed":"2019-12-12","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc8736c02-d30a-4c66-a4d9-0bac2e7afd46-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c8736c02-d30a-4c66-a4d9-0bac2e7afd46/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.007375},{"date":"2020-03-04","filed":"2020-03-11","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"Sce3e9174-2da2-4f53-9f7f-37f9e0305a9f-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/ce3e9174-2da2-4f53-9f7f-37f9e0305a9f/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.095647},{"date":"2020-09-02","filed":"2020-09-11","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"S34ebca60-a389-42b5-874e-c59eeea89ad6-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/34ebca60-a389-42b5-874e-c59eeea89ad6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.087933},{"date":"2020-12-03","filed":"2020-12-07","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"Sdba1fc54-346e-48f1-b96c-62bc43cdd8a1-001","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/dba1fc54-346e-48f1-b96c-62bc43cdd8a1/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.031274},{"date":"2021-03-03","filed":"2021-03-16","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20210316-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.027724},{"date":"2021-06-03","filed":"2021-06-07","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20210607-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.04492},{"date":"2021-12-03","filed":"2021-12-16","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20211216-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.000864},{"date":"2022-03-03","filed":"2022-03-14","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20220314-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.019357},{"date":"2022-06-03","filed":"2022-06-13","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20220613-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.047692},{"date":"2022-09-06","filed":"2022-09-26","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20220926-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001515},{"date":"2022-11-29","filed":"2022-12-29","ticker":"KR","issuer":"KR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20221229-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.064786},{"date":"2022-12-05","filed":"2022-12-29","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20221229-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.02032},{"date":"2023-03-03","filed":"2023-03-28","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20230328-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.076319},{"date":"2023-06-05","filed":"2023-06-14","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20230614-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.019979},{"date":"2023-09-01","filed":"2023-09-15","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20230915-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.000581},{"date":"2023-12-05","filed":"2023-12-18","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20231218-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.029852},{"date":"2024-03-05","filed":"2024-03-19","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20240319-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002496},{"date":"2024-06-04","filed":"2024-06-13","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20240613-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.046832},{"date":"2024-09-01","filed":"2024-09-16","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20240916-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.078917},{"date":"2024-12-02","filed":"2025-01-04","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20250104-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.041754},{"date":"2025-03-03","filed":"2025-03-12","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20250312-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.107579},{"date":"2025-06-01","filed":"2025-06-19","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20250619-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.008818},{"date":"2025-06-26","filed":"2025-07-07","ticker":"LAZR","issuer":"LAZR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20250707-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2025-09-01","filed":"2025-09-12","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20250912-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.033693},{"date":"2025-12-01","filed":"2025-12-19","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20251219-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.048908},{"date":"2025-12-24","filed":"2026-01-13","ticker":"LAZR","issuer":"LAZR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20260113-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2026-03-01","filed":"2026-03-19","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20260319-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.033737},{"date":"2026-06-01","filed":"2026-06-30","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20260630-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.077937},{"date":"2026-09-01","filed":"2026-09-21","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"WFC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000355-20260921-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.030135}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"90% of 40 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.900, 90% Wilson [0.795, 0.954]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.9,"ci":[0.795009,0.954308],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"lowest_band_share":0.9,"lowest_band_ci":[0.795009,0.954308],"share_over_50k":0.05,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":2,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 3 and trading spans 44% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.340 (identified set [0.278, 0.378]); trade-count HHI 0.770 vs. 95th percentile 0.031 of 40 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.44 [0.41, 0.50]. Top three issuers (IR, VMC, WFC) carry at least 87% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":2.940408,"ci":[2.643086,3.598685],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"issuers":5,"hhi_mid":0.340089,"hhi_bounds":[0.277879,0.378346],"n_eff":2.940408,"hhi_count":0.77,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.03125,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.444844,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.40804,0.498906],"top3_share_lower":0.872821,"top3":["IR","VMC","WFC"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"0% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 57% of trades look routine; 5.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.6%).","detail":"Batch-day share 0/39, Wilson [0.00, 0.06]; index of dispersion 1.04 (chi-square p = 0.0736); routine share 0.57 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.050 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.066, p = 0.714.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.064873],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.714,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"trade_days":39,"batch_share_trades":0,"batch_day_share":0,"batch_day_ci":[0,0.064873],"dispersion_index":1.042656,"dispersion_p":0.073607,"routine_share":0.575,"proximity_share":0.05,"proximity_null_mean":0.065681,"proximity_null_p95":0.15,"proximity_p":0.714,"proximity_nonroutine":0,"proximity_routine":0.086957}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 38 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.93% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0093; 90% KP interval [-0.2660, 0.2474]; t_BMP = -0.80, r-bar = 0.789, t_KP = -0.07, Patell Z = -0.88, Corrado Z = -1.21. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0079, 0.0408]. Calendar-time alpha -6.98%/yr (NW t = -0.67, 718 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.009305,"ci":[-0.266022,0.247411],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.748075,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.010411},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.005345},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.011578},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.040757},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.069761}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":38,"theta":-0.009305,"ci":[-0.266022,0.247411],"p":0.526538,"t_kp":-0.067024,"rbar":0.78852,"se_cs":0.012739,"se_kp":0.152165,"t_cs":-0.730467,"t_bmp":-0.800607,"patell_z":-0.884761,"corrado_z":-1.207382,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.007914,0.040757],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000277,"se":0.000414,"days":718,"t":-0.668444,"p_one_sided":0.748075},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000976,0.000422],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":38,"theta":-0.010411,"ci":[-0.158286,0.137464],"p":0.552886,"t_kp":-0.133874,"rbar":0.78852,"se_cs":0.007338,"se_kp":0.087651,"t_cs":-1.418783,"t_bmp":-1.599134,"patell_z":-2.143128,"corrado_z":-1.98117},"21":{"n":38,"theta":-0.009305,"ci":[-0.266022,0.247411],"p":0.526538,"t_kp":-0.067024,"rbar":0.78852,"se_cs":0.012739,"se_kp":0.152165,"t_cs":-0.730467,"t_bmp":-0.800607,"patell_z":-0.884761,"corrado_z":-1.207382},"63":{"n":37,"theta":0.005345,"ci":[-0.485384,0.496074],"p":0.507729,"t_kp":-0.019511,"rbar":0.78852,"se_cs":0.024658,"se_kp":0.290665,"t_cs":0.216769,"t_bmp":-0.229996,"patell_z":-0.240587,"corrado_z":0.442979}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 9 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.22, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.04, 0.55]; exact one-sided p = 0.980; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.945. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.222222,"ci":[0.041023,0.549642],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.980469,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":9,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.222222,"ci":[0.041023,0.549642],"p_exact":0.980469,"p_magnitude":0.9445,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2020-03-05","move":-0.033242,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-09","move":-0.078094,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-10","move":0.051745,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-11","move":-0.048749,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-03-07","move":-0.029479,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-03-09","move":0.026811,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-09-13","move":-0.043482,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-03-10","move":-0.026636,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2026-06-05","move":-0.025809,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"5 of 43 trades (11.6%) were disclosed late; median lag 14 days.","detail":"Late share 0.116, Wilson [0.058, 0.220]; 90th percentile lag 63 days; longest 340 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.116279,"ci":[0.057761,0.220226],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":43,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":5,"late_from_trade":5,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.116279,"late_ci":[0.057761,0.220226],"median_lag":14,"p90_lag":63.4,"max_lag":340,"filings":37,"late_filings":2,"late_priced":3,"timely_priced":35,"late_priced_dates":3}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 5% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees JSLC, JSPR, SSAF, SSAP, SSRA; jurisdiction sectors Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Food Distributors, Packaged Foods & Meats, Timber REITs. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.050, congressional peers 0.013.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.049505,"ci":[-0.049505,-0.049505],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":38,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0.049505,"benchmark_peers":0.01296,"excess":-0.049505,"excess_ci":[-0.049505,-0.049505],"committees":["JSLC","JSPR","SSAF","SSAP","SSRA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Food Distributors","Packaged Foods & Meats","Timber REITs"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 38 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 38 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":38,"events":147}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2017-09-08 (permutation p = 0.216).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2017-09-08","changepoint_LR":6.524375,"changepoint_p":0.216,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.014085}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 27% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0093, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.009305,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.268657,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.25, Clopper-Pearson [0.01, 0.75], exact one-sided p = 0.938; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.25,"ci":[0.012741,0.751395],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.9375,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":4,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.25,"ci":[0.012741,0.751395],"priced":38,"share_followed":0.105263}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"10% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 14%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.100; circular-shift null mean 0.135, 95th pct 0.227, p = 0.830. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0113, p = 0.602.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.1,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.601743,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.075,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"cotraded_share":0.1,"null_mean":0.135354,"null_p95":0.2275,"excess_p":0.83,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.075,"excess_p_wo_top":0.63,"cotraded_car":-0.011298,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.175319,0.152724],"cotraded_car_p":0.601743}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +1.29% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0129 [-0.2378, 0.2636], t_KP = 0.03.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.012878,"ci":[-0.237821,0.263577],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.489745,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":15,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":25,"family_car":0.012878,"family_ci":[-0.237821,0.263577],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-05","event_date":"2020-03-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.32,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-09","event_date":"2020-03-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":-7.81,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-10","event_date":"2020-03-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.17,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-11","event_date":"2020-03-11","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.87,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-03-07","event_date":"2022-03-07","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.95,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-03-09","event_date":"2022-03-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.68,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-09-13","event_date":"2022-09-13","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.35,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-03-10","event_date":"2025-03-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.66,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2026-06-05","event_date":"2026-06-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.58,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}