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Services","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000934-20260625-005","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.094236},{"date":"2026-06-23","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"GOOG","issuer":"GOOG","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000934-20260721-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.016116},{"date":"2026-06-23","filed":"2026-07-21","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"BRK.B","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM000934-20260721-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014742}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"96% of 231 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.957, 90% Wilson [0.929, 0.974]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.95671,"ci":[0.928897,0.973949],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":231,"lowest_band_share":0.95671,"lowest_band_ci":[0.928897,0.973949],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":4,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"45 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 25 and trading spans 77% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.040 (identified set [0.023, 0.329]); trade-count HHI 0.033 vs. 95th percentile 0.008 of 231 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.77 [0.69, 0.81]. Top three issuers (BRK.B, JNK, WFC) carry at least 3% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":25.135429,"ci":[3.041376,44.119584],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":231,"issuers":45,"hhi_mid":0.039784,"hhi_bounds":[0.022666,0.328799],"n_eff":25.135429,"hhi_count":0.032589,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.007927,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.767656,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.693295,0.80697],"top3_share_lower":0.034428,"top3":["BRK.B","JNK","WFC"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"50% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 34% of trades look routine; 1.7% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.8%).","detail":"Batch-day share 7/14, Wilson [0.30, 0.70]; index of dispersion 32.08 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.34 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.017 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.068, p = 0.968.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.5,"ci":[0.298782,0.701218],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.968,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":231,"trade_days":14,"batch_share_trades":0.909091,"batch_day_share":0.5,"batch_day_ci":[0.298782,0.701218],"dispersion_index":32.076461,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.341991,"proximity_share":0.017316,"proximity_null_mean":0.068371,"proximity_null_p95":0.155844,"proximity_p":0.968,"proximity_nonroutine":0.026316,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 214 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.29% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0029; 90% KP interval [-0.0327, 0.0269]; t_BMP = -0.91, r-bar = 0.063, t_KP = -0.23, Patell Z = -0.99, Corrado Z = -0.12. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0638, 0.0641]. Calendar-time alpha 11.56%/yr (NW t = 0.48, 279 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002908,"ci":[-0.032709,0.026893],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.591499,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.00068},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.008661},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.003603},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.005264},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.064108},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.1156}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":214,"theta":-0.002908,"ci":[-0.032709,0.026893],"p":0.591499,"t_kp":-0.231689,"rbar":0.062652,"se_cs":0.004611,"se_kp":0.018039,"t_cs":-0.630658,"t_bmp":-0.906365,"patell_z":-0.993524,"corrado_z":-0.124618,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.063811,0.064108],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000459,"se":0.000952,"days":279,"t":0.481739,"p_one_sided":0.314996},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001114,0.002032],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":214,"theta":-0.00068,"ci":[-0.013243,0.011883],"p":0.489361,"t_kp":0.026702,"rbar":0.062652,"se_cs":0.001944,"se_kp":0.007604,"t_cs":-0.34994,"t_bmp":0.104459,"patell_z":0.105127,"corrado_z":0.467536},"21":{"n":214,"theta":-0.002908,"ci":[-0.032709,0.026893],"p":0.591499,"t_kp":-0.231689,"rbar":0.062652,"se_cs":0.004611,"se_kp":0.018039,"t_cs":-0.630658,"t_bmp":-0.906365,"patell_z":-0.993524,"corrado_z":-0.124618},"63":{"n":214,"theta":-0.008661,"ci":[-0.066247,0.048926],"p":0.559861,"t_kp":-0.150797,"rbar":0.062652,"se_cs":0.00891,"se_kp":0.034858,"t_cs":-0.971953,"t_bmp":-0.589918,"patell_z":-0.632546,"corrado_z":0.155639}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 8 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 4 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.19, 0.81]; exact one-sided p = 0.637; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.386. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.192903,0.807097],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.636719,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":8,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.192903,0.807097],"p_exact":0.636719,"p_magnitude":0.386,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2018-12-26","move":0.050525,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":22,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-11","move":-0.048749,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-12","move":-0.095677,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-13","move":0.085486,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-16","move":-0.109424,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-17","move":0.053992,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-08-05","move":-0.029124,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-12-18","move":-0.029803,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"59 of 238 trades (24.8%) were disclosed late; median lag 31 days.","detail":"Late share 0.248, Wilson [0.205, 0.297]; 90th percentile lag 160 days; longest 413 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.247899,"ci":[0.204867,0.296599],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":238,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":59,"late_from_trade":59,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.247899,"late_ci":[0.204867,0.296599],"median_lag":31,"p90_lag":160,"max_lag":413,"filings":14,"late_filings":2,"late_priced":48,"timely_priced":166,"late_priced_dates":2}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"32% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 25% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SLIA, SLIN, SSAF, SSAP, SSCM, SSVA; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Air Freight & Logistics, Automobile Manufacturers, Cargo Ground Transportation, Communication Services, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Food Distributors, Health Care Facilities, Health Care Services, Interactive Media & Services, Packaged Foods & Meats, Passenger Airlines, Rail Transportation, Semiconductors, Systems Software, Timber REITs. Dollar share 0.316 (identified set [0.037, 0.843], bootstrap 0.224-0.371); benchmarks S&P 500 0.208, congressional peers 0.246.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.07024,"ci":[-0.021795,0.125891],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":214,"in_jurisdiction_trades":73,"share":0.315758,"share_bounds":[0.03663,0.842566],"share_ci":[0.223722,0.371408],"benchmark_sp500":0.207921,"benchmark_peers":0.245517,"excess":0.07024,"excess_ci":[-0.021795,0.125891],"committees":["SLIA","SLIN","SSAF","SSAP","SSCM","SSVA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Air Freight & Logistics","Automobile Manufacturers","Cargo Ground Transportation","Communication Services","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Food Distributors","Health Care Facilities","Health Care Services","Interactive Media & Services","Packaged Foods & Meats","Passenger Airlines","Rail Transportation","Semiconductors","Systems Software","Timber REITs"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"54 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved -0.08% in the trade's favour, +0.28% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = -0.0008; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0028 [-0.0119, 0.0244], p = 0.434; mean pre-trade drift psi = -0.0069.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.002825,"ci":[-0.0119,0.024435],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.434,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.848154,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.004729},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.002825},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.003906},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":0.017908,"placebo_reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":54,"n_other":160,"theta9":-0.000796,"diff":0.002825,"ci":[-0.0119,0.024435],"p":0.434,"pre_trade_drift":-0.006858,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":3017,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":1422,"committee_markup":718,"committee_reported":586,"became_law":291},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.25,"trade_dates":10,"placebo_reading":"open_question"}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2018-12-20 (permutation p = 0.050).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2018-12-20","changepoint_LR":9.769727,"changepoint_p":0.05,"tradeday_rate_before":0.2,"tradeday_rate_after":0.006126}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 46% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0029, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.002908,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.462687,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"29 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 7 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.24, Clopper-Pearson [0.12, 0.41], exact one-sided p = 0.999; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.241379,"ci":[0.119169,0.405966],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.998842,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":29,"hits":7,"hit_rate":0.241379,"ci":[0.119169,0.405966],"priced":216,"share_followed":0.134259}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"21% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 25%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.208; circular-shift null mean 0.252, 95th pct 0.333, p = 0.820. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0002, p = 0.485.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.207792,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.485025,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.186147,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":231,"cotraded_share":0.207792,"null_mean":0.252438,"null_p95":0.333333,"excess_p":0.82,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.186147,"excess_p_wo_top":0.74,"cotraded_car":-0.000228,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.032881,0.032424],"cotraded_car_p":0.485025}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"42% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -0.80% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0080 [-0.0423, 0.0262], t_KP = -0.35; family minus self -0.0028 [-0.0260, 0.0027], p = 0.652.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.008042,"ci":[-0.042283,0.026198],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.637098,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":55,"family_share":0.416667,"owner_unknown":99,"family_car":-0.008042,"family_ci":[-0.042283,0.026198],"diff":-0.002779,"diff_ci":[-0.025994,0.002673],"diff_p":0.652}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +1.44% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0144 [-0.0257, 0.0544], t_KP = 0.42, over 14 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +6.32% (win rate 43%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.014377,"ci":[-0.025658,0.054413],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.341303,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":17,"share_in_round_trips":0.147186,"priced":14,"realized_mean":0.063153,"realized_win_rate":0.428571,"opening_car":0.014377,"ci":[-0.025658,0.054413],"p":0.341303,"openings_priced":14}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2018-12-26","event_date":"2018-12-26","direction":"sell","move_pct":5.05,"trade":"22 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-11","event_date":"2020-03-11","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.87,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-12","event_date":"2020-03-12","direction":"sell","move_pct":-9.57,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-13","event_date":"2020-03-13","direction":"sell","move_pct":8.55,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-16","event_date":"2020-03-16","direction":"sell","move_pct":-10.94,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-17","event_date":"2020-03-17","direction":"sell","move_pct":5.4,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-08-05","event_date":"2024-08-05","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.91,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-12-18","event_date":"2024-12-18","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.98,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}