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Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"S07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674-071","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.035287},{"date":"2017-06-15","filed":"2017-06-22","ticker":"BGS","issuer":"B&G Foods, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"S07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674-072","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.074101},{"date":"2017-06-15","filed":"2017-06-22","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information 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Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"S07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674-079","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.004188},{"date":"2017-06-15","filed":"2017-06-22","ticker":"CB","issuer":"Chubb Limited","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"S07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674-080","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.013148},{"date":"2017-06-15","filed":"2017-06-22","ticker":"MDT","issuer":"Medtronic plc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"S07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674-081","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674/","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.017572},{"date":"2017-06-15","filed":"2017-06-22","ticker":"ETN","issuer":"Eaton Corporation plc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"S07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674-082","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.00676},{"date":"2017-06-15","filed":"2017-06-22","ticker":"DLPH","issuer":"Delphi Automotive PLC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"S07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674-083","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/07a7470c-ae50-4a37-8c10-cf1c59a69674/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of 161 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 1.000, 90% Wilson [0.983, 1.000]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":1,"ci":[0.983473,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":161,"lowest_band_share":1,"lowest_band_ci":[0.983473,1],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":9,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"85 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 83 and trading spans 94% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.012 (identified set [0.012, 0.053]); trade-count HHI 0.012 vs. 95th percentile 0.010 of 161 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.006). Normalized sector entropy 0.94 [nan, nan]. Top three issuers (AAPL, AMGN, APA) carry at least 0% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":82.814696,"ci":[18.919431,85],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":161,"issuers":85,"hhi_mid":0.012075,"hhi_bounds":[0.011765,0.052856],"n_eff":82.814696,"hhi_count":0.012075,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.010154,"peer_benchmark_p":0.006,"sector_entropy":0.937858,"sector_entropy_ci":[null,null],"top3_share_lower":0.002577,"top3":["AAPL","AMGN","APA"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 52% of trades look routine; 5.6% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 2.5%).","detail":"Batch-day share 2/2, Wilson [0.43, 1.00]; index of dispersion 79.34 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.52 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.056 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.025, p = 0.092.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":1,"ci":[0.425031,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.092,"p_holm":0.644,"q_bh":0.463517,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":161,"trade_days":2,"batch_share_trades":1,"batch_day_share":1,"batch_day_ci":[0.425031,1],"dispersion_index":79.340373,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.515528,"proximity_share":0.055901,"proximity_null_mean":0.02487,"proximity_null_p95":0.055901,"proximity_p":0.092,"proximity_nonroutine":0.051282,"proximity_routine":0.060241}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 120 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.03% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0003; 90% KP interval [-0.0110, 0.0116]; t_BMP = 0.57, r-bar = 0.014, t_KP = 0.35, Patell Z = 0.49, Corrado Z = 0.90. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0544, 0.0436].","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.000311,"ci":[-0.010968,0.01159],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.364162,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001206},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.008932},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.007846},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.043649}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":120,"theta":0.000311,"ci":[-0.010968,0.01159],"p":0.364162,"t_kp":0.348175,"rbar":0.014117,"se_cs":0.004127,"se_kp":0.006804,"t_cs":0.075399,"t_bmp":0.57404,"patell_z":0.491703,"corrado_z":0.895753,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.054414,0.043649],"calendar_time":null,"calendar_alpha_ci":[null,null],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":120,"theta":0.001206,"ci":[-0.006113,0.008524],"p":0.286781,"t_kp":0.564375,"rbar":0.014117,"se_cs":0.002678,"se_kp":0.004415,"t_cs":0.450198,"t_bmp":0.930492,"patell_z":1.032431,"corrado_z":1.258674},"21":{"n":120,"theta":0.000311,"ci":[-0.010968,0.01159],"p":0.364162,"t_kp":0.348175,"rbar":0.014117,"se_cs":0.004127,"se_kp":0.006804,"t_cs":0.075399,"t_bmp":0.57404,"patell_z":0.491703,"corrado_z":0.895753},"63":{"n":120,"theta":-0.008932,"ci":[-0.032686,0.014822],"p":0.63489,"t_kp":-0.345646,"rbar":0.014117,"se_cs":0.008691,"se_kp":0.014329,"t_cs":-1.027717,"t_bmp":-0.56987,"patell_z":-0.535224,"corrado_z":-0.89713}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 161 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 7 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.017]; 90th percentile lag 7 days; longest 7 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.016527],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":161,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.016527],"median_lag":7,"p90_lag":7,"max_lag":7,"filings":2,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":120,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"17% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 12% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SSAP, SSBU, SSHR, SSVA; jurisdiction sectors Health Care, Health Care Facilities, Health Care Services, Human Resource & Employment Services. Dollar share 0.173 (identified set [0.014, 0.758], bootstrap nan-nan); benchmarks S&P 500 0.123, congressional peers 0.114.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.05016,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":133,"in_jurisdiction_trades":23,"share":0.172932,"share_bounds":[0.013761,0.758058],"share_ci":[null,null],"benchmark_sp500":0.122772,"benchmark_peers":0.113525,"excess":0.05016,"excess_ci":[null,null],"committees":["SSAP","SSBU","SSHR","SSVA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Health Care","Health Care Facilities","Health Care Services","Human Resource & Employment Services"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"23 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 2 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"23 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 2 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"n_other":97,"trade_dates":2,"events":1993}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2017-03-17 (permutation p = 0.170).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2017-03-17","changepoint_LR":5.637256,"changepoint_p":0.17,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.015385}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 60% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0003, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.000311,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.597015,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"11 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 5 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.45, Clopper-Pearson [0.20, 0.73], exact one-sided p = 0.726; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.454545,"ci":[0.199576,0.72875],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.725586,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"hits":5,"hit_rate":0.454545,"ci":[0.199576,0.72875],"priced":120,"share_followed":0.091667}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 9%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.050; circular-shift null mean 0.088, 95th pct 0.174, p = 0.870. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0190, p = 0.942.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.049689,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.941756,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.971009,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.043478,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":161,"cotraded_share":0.049689,"null_mean":0.088211,"null_p95":0.173913,"excess_p":0.87,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.043478,"excess_p_wo_top":0.86,"cotraded_car":-0.018999,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.04282,0.004823],"cotraded_car_p":0.941756}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +0.03% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0003 [-0.0110, 0.0116], t_KP = 0.35.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.000311,"ci":[-0.010968,0.01159],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.364162,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":161,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.000311,"family_ci":[-0.010968,0.01159],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"76 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -0.78% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0078 [-0.0219, 0.0062], t_KP = -1.03, over 58 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -2.07% (win rate 40%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.007846,"ci":[-0.021862,0.00617],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.845579,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":76,"share_in_round_trips":0.944099,"priced":58,"realized_mean":-0.020686,"realized_win_rate":0.396552,"opening_car":-0.007846,"ci":[-0.021862,0.00617],"p":0.845579,"openings_priced":58}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}