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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.955128,"ci":[0.919248,0.975491],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":156,"lowest_band_share":0.955128,"lowest_band_ci":[0.919248,0.975491],"share_over_50k":0.019231,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":3,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"55 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 4 and trading spans 36% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.223 (identified set [0.053, 0.483]); trade-count HHI 0.025 vs. 95th percentile 0.010 of 156 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.36 [0.15, 0.60]. Top three issuers (ROKU, DIS, TWTR) carry at least 29% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":4.476451,"ci":[2.070435,18.997102],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":156,"issuers":55,"hhi_mid":0.223391,"hhi_bounds":[0.05264,0.48299],"n_eff":4.476451,"hhi_count":0.02523,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.010191,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.356909,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.150386,0.602625],"top3_share_lower":0.294332,"top3":["ROKU","DIS","TWTR"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"8% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 1.9% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.2%).","detail":"Batch-day share 7/89, Wilson [0.04, 0.14]; index of dispersion 2.16 (chi-square p = 5.35e-84); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.019 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.042, p = 0.914.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.078652,"ci":[0.043203,0.138962],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.914,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":156,"trade_days":89,"batch_share_trades":0.185897,"batch_day_share":0.078652,"batch_day_ci":[0.043203,0.138962],"dispersion_index":2.157907,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.019231,"proximity_null_mean":0.042058,"proximity_null_p95":0.070513,"proximity_p":0.914,"proximity_nonroutine":0.019231,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 94 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.48% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0048; 90% KP interval [-0.0888, 0.0792]; t_BMP = -0.05, r-bar = 0.089, t_KP = -0.02, Patell Z = -0.05, Corrado Z = 0.05. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0643, 0.0328]. Calendar-time alpha -9.83%/yr (NW t = -0.49, 485 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.004761,"ci":[-0.088752,0.07923],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.688666,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.008635},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.016595},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.008574},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":-0.023711},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.032808},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.09827}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":94,"theta":-0.004761,"ci":[-0.088752,0.07923],"p":0.506798,"t_kp":-0.017087,"rbar":0.089193,"se_cs":0.015825,"se_kp":0.050554,"t_cs":-0.300857,"t_bmp":-0.054585,"patell_z":-0.049016,"corrado_z":0.054492,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.064253,0.032808],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.00039,"se":0.000792,"days":485,"t":-0.492072,"p_one_sided":0.688666},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001707,0.000927],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":94,"theta":-0.008635,"ci":[-0.068184,0.050914],"p":0.540955,"t_kp":-0.103119,"rbar":0.089193,"se_cs":0.01122,"se_kp":0.035843,"t_cs":-0.769623,"t_bmp":-0.329421,"patell_z":-0.326241,"corrado_z":0.152137},"21":{"n":94,"theta":-0.004761,"ci":[-0.088752,0.07923],"p":0.506798,"t_kp":-0.017087,"rbar":0.089193,"se_cs":0.015825,"se_kp":0.050554,"t_cs":-0.300857,"t_bmp":-0.054585,"patell_z":-0.049016,"corrado_z":0.054492},"63":{"n":94,"theta":-0.016595,"ci":[-0.187166,0.153976],"p":0.597381,"t_kp":-0.247278,"rbar":0.089193,"se_cs":0.032138,"se_kp":0.102667,"t_cs":-0.516357,"t_bmp":-0.789944,"patell_z":-0.751648,"corrado_z":-0.697268}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 5 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.40, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.08, 0.81]; exact one-sided p = 0.812; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.751. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.4,"ci":[0.07644,0.810745],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.8125,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":5,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.4,"ci":[0.07644,0.810745],"p_exact":0.8125,"p_magnitude":0.7512,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2020-03-10","move":0.051745,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-11","move":-0.048749,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-12","move":-0.095677,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-13","move":0.085486,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-16","move":-0.109424,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 3.85 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 3.85 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":3.849899,"ci":[2.049674,6.687163],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":3.849899,"rate_ratio_ci":[2.049674,6.687163],"rate_ratio_batchdays":2.658263,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0.888862,6.271633],"absence_days":17,"trades_in_absence":10}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"10 of 160 trades (6.2%) were disclosed late; median lag 298 days. Another 95 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.062, Wilson [0.038, 0.102]; 90th percentile lag 508 days; longest 584 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.0625,"ci":[0.037724,0.101826],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.65625,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":160,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":10,"late_from_trade":105,"excused_by_notification":95,"late_share":0.0625,"late_ci":[0.037724,0.101826],"median_lag":297.5,"p90_lag":508.4,"max_lag":584,"filings":16,"late_filings":4,"late_priced":8,"timely_priced":86,"late_priced_dates":5}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 19% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SSAF, SSBU, SSFI, SSHR; jurisdiction sectors Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Distillers & Vintners, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Food Distributors, Health Care, Human Resource & Employment Services, Life & Health Insurance, Packaged Foods & Meats, Timber REITs, Tobacco. Dollar share 0.022 (identified set [0.003, 0.124], bootstrap 0.002-0.061); benchmarks S&P 500 0.192, congressional peers 0.135.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.170527,"ci":[-0.190088,-0.131161],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":100,"in_jurisdiction_trades":9,"share":0.021552,"share_bounds":[0.002893,0.124185],"share_ci":[0.001992,0.060918],"benchmark_sp500":0.192079,"benchmark_peers":0.135407,"excess":-0.170527,"excess_ci":[-0.190088,-0.131161],"committees":["SSAF","SSBU","SSFI","SSHR"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Distillers & Vintners","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Food Distributors","Health Care","Human Resource & Employment Services","Life & Health Insurance","Packaged Foods & Meats","Timber REITs","Tobacco"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"6 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 88 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"6 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 88 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":6,"n_other":88,"events":1549}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2017-11-08 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2017-11-08","changepoint_LR":53.035681,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.235294,"tradeday_rate_after":0.048322}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 38% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0048, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.004761,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.380597,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"16 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 8 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson [0.28, 0.72], exact one-sided p = 0.598; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.278603,0.721397],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.59819,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":16,"hits":8,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.278603,0.721397],"priced":94,"share_followed":0.170213}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"13% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 10%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.135; circular-shift null mean 0.098, 95th pct 0.141, p = 0.120. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0172, p = 0.252.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.134615,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.25241,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.128205,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":156,"cotraded_share":0.134615,"null_mean":0.098096,"null_p95":0.141026,"excess_p":0.12,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.128205,"excess_p_wo_top":0.12,"cotraded_car":0.017176,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.019948,0.054301],"cotraded_car_p":0.25241}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"97% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -0.41% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0041 [-0.0911, 0.0829], t_KP = -0.02; family minus self 0.0196 [-0.0279, 0.0696], p = 0.283.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.004124,"ci":[-0.09114,0.082893],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.507503,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":148,"family_share":0.96732,"owner_unknown":3,"family_car":-0.004124,"family_ci":[-0.09114,0.082893],"diff":0.019587,"diff_ci":[-0.027884,0.069584],"diff_p":0.282511}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"64 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +0.49% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0049 [-0.0784, 0.0881], t_KP = 0.41, over 39 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +0.95% (win rate 67%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.004864,"ci":[-0.078393,0.088122],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.34126,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":64,"share_in_round_trips":0.820513,"priced":36,"realized_mean":0.009479,"realized_win_rate":0.666667,"opening_car":0.004864,"ci":[-0.078393,0.088122],"p":0.34126,"openings_priced":39}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-10","event_date":"2020-03-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.17,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-11","event_date":"2020-03-11","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.87,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-12","event_date":"2020-03-12","direction":"buy","move_pct":-9.57,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-13","event_date":"2020-03-13","direction":"buy","move_pct":8.55,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-16","event_date":"2020-03-16","direction":"buy","move_pct":-10.94,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}