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Common Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20021542-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021542.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-02-18","filed":"2022-08-12","ticker":null,"issuer":"UGRO","asset_type":"other","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20021542-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021542.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-03-04","filed":"2021-04-19","ticker":"AMTX","issuer":"Aemetis, Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20018601-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018601.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.146543},{"date":"2021-03-04","filed":"2021-04-19","ticker":"AMTX","issuer":"Aemetis, Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20018601-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018601.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.146543},{"date":"2021-03-04","filed":"2021-04-19","ticker":"AMTX","issuer":"Aemetis, Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20018601-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018601.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.146543},{"date":"2021-03-04","filed":"2021-04-19","ticker":"AMTX","issuer":"Aemetis, Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20018601-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018601.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.146543},{"date":"2021-04-12","filed":"2021-05-14","ticker":"AMTX","issuer":"Aemetis, Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018737-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018737.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.329681},{"date":"2021-04-12","filed":"2021-05-14","ticker":"AMTX","issuer":"Aemetis, Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018737-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018737.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.329681},{"date":"2021-05-03","filed":"2022-10-05","ticker":"TLRY","issuer":"Tilray Brands, Inc. - Class 2","asset_type":"stock","direction":"exchange","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20021782-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021782.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-07-19","filed":"2021-08-23","ticker":"SPCE","issuer":"Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019373-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019373.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.108059},{"date":"2021-07-19","filed":"2021-08-23","ticker":"SPCE","issuer":"Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019373-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019373.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.108059},{"date":"2021-08-05","filed":"2022-08-12","ticker":"ESGC","issuer":"Eros STX Global Corporation A Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20021542-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021542.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-04-18","filed":"2022-05-09","ticker":"IWM","issuer":"iShares Russell 2000 ETF","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020964-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020964.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010802},{"date":"2022-04-18","filed":"2022-05-09","ticker":"SDC","issuer":"SmileDirectClub, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020964-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020964.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-04-18","filed":"2022-05-09","ticker":"TLRY","issuer":"Tilray Brands, Inc. - Class 2","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020964-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020964.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014026},{"date":"2022-04-18","filed":"2022-05-09","ticker":"UGRO","issuer":"Urban-gro, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020964-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020964.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-04-18","filed":"2022-05-09","ticker":"SPCE","issuer":"Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020964-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020964.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.042691},{"date":"2022-04-18","filed":"2022-05-09","ticker":"SPCE","issuer":"Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020964-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020964.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.042691},{"date":"2024-03-04","filed":"2024-03-26","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[350.78,350.78],"owner":"dependent","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024743-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024743.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.034744},{"date":"2024-03-04","filed":"2024-03-26","ticker":"T","issuer":"AT&T Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[172,172],"owner":"dependent","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024743-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024743.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.034906},{"date":"2024-03-04","filed":"2024-03-26","ticker":"T","issuer":"AT&T Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[223.6,223.6],"owner":"dependent","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024743-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024743.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.034906}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"26% of 85 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.259, 90% Wilson [0.189, 0.344]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.258824,"ci":[0.188978,0.343549],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":85,"lowest_band_share":0.258824,"lowest_band_ci":[0.188978,0.343549],"share_over_50k":0.129412,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":4,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"33 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 20 and trading spans 83% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.050 (identified set [0.035, 0.098]); trade-count HHI 0.041 vs. 95th percentile 0.017 of 85 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.83 [0.82, 0.87]. Top three issuers (EXPE, WBA, TLRY) carry at least 11% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":19.877097,"ci":[10.198363,28.350524],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":85,"issuers":33,"hhi_mid":0.050309,"hhi_bounds":[0.035273,0.098055],"n_eff":19.877097,"hhi_count":0.041384,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.016747,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.834311,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.824733,0.870324],"top3_share_lower":0.113308,"top3":["EXPE","WBA","TLRY"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 4.7% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 3.3%).","detail":"Batch-day share 4/59, Wilson [0.03, 0.14]; index of dispersion 1.97 (chi-square p = 3.48e-118); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.047 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.033, p = 0.332.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.067797,"ci":[0.030799,0.142695],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.332,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.764156,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":85,"trade_days":59,"batch_share_trades":0.176471,"batch_day_share":0.067797,"batch_day_ci":[0.030799,0.142695],"dispersion_index":1.966515,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.047059,"proximity_null_mean":0.033125,"proximity_null_p95":0.082353,"proximity_p":0.332,"proximity_nonroutine":0.047059,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 53 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 7.39% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0739; 90% KP interval [-0.1136, 0.2613]; t_BMP = 1.75, r-bar = 0.124, t_KP = 0.60, Patell Z = 1.72, Corrado Z = 2.45. Dollar-weighted identified set [0.0037, 0.2287]. Calendar-time alpha 50.66%/yr (NW t = 0.68, 448 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.073864,"ci":[-0.11359,0.261318],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.274867,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.013805},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.055705},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.044604},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.076667},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.228701},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.506607}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":53,"theta":0.073864,"ci":[-0.11359,0.261318],"p":0.274867,"t_kp":0.602085,"rbar":0.123618,"se_cs":0.038447,"se_kp":0.111934,"t_cs":1.921163,"t_bmp":1.752874,"patell_z":1.720214,"corrado_z":2.449076,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[0.003745,0.228701],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.00201,"se":0.002973,"days":448,"t":0.676145,"p_one_sided":0.249474},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.002969,0.00699],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":53,"theta":0.013805,"ci":[-0.08834,0.115951],"p":0.413127,"t_kp":0.220618,"rbar":0.123618,"se_cs":0.02095,"se_kp":0.060994,"t_cs":0.658956,"t_bmp":0.642293,"patell_z":0.709878,"corrado_z":0.890641},"21":{"n":53,"theta":0.073864,"ci":[-0.11359,0.261318],"p":0.274867,"t_kp":0.602085,"rbar":0.123618,"se_cs":0.038447,"se_kp":0.111934,"t_cs":1.921163,"t_bmp":1.752874,"patell_z":1.720214,"corrado_z":2.449076},"63":{"n":53,"theta":0.055705,"ci":[-0.390852,0.502261],"p":0.4522,"t_kp":0.120692,"rbar":0.123618,"se_cs":0.09159,"se_kp":0.266651,"t_cs":0.608193,"t_bmp":0.351375,"patell_z":0.424012,"corrado_z":-0.06768}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.33, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.02, 0.86]; exact one-sided p = 0.875; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.630. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.333333,"ci":[0.016952,0.86465],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":3,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.333333,"ci":[0.016952,0.86465],"p_exact":0.875,"p_magnitude":0.6299,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2018-12-26","move":0.050525,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2019-01-04","move":0.033496,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-24","move":-0.033166,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 5.56 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 5.56 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":5.557927,"ci":[1.486127,14.785957],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":5.557927,"rate_ratio_ci":[1.486127,14.785957],"rate_ratio_batchdays":5.330409,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0.925673,17.423241],"absence_days":12,"trades_in_absence":3}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"10 of 82 trades (12.2%) were disclosed late; median lag 23 days.","detail":"Late share 0.122, Wilson [0.074, 0.194]; 90th percentile lag 46 days; longest 576 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.121951,"ci":[0.074311,0.193742],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":82,"amendment_rows_excluded":8,"late":10,"late_from_trade":10,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.121951,"late_ci":[0.074311,0.193742],"median_lag":23,"p90_lag":46,"max_lag":576,"filings":26,"late_filings":5,"late_priced":10,"timely_priced":43,"late_priced_dates":5}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"17% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 14% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSFA, HSPW; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Air Freight & Logistics, Cargo Ground Transportation, Construction & Engineering, Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment, Construction Materials, Environmental & Facilities Services, Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines, Passenger Airlines, Passenger Ground Transportation, Rail Transportation, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.169 (identified set [0.068, 0.360], bootstrap 0.088-0.290); benchmarks S&P 500 0.141, congressional peers 0.128.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.028059,"ci":[-0.052779,0.149436],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":61,"in_jurisdiction_trades":8,"share":0.168653,"share_bounds":[0.06752,0.359685],"share_ci":[0.087815,0.29003],"benchmark_sp500":0.140594,"benchmark_peers":0.127789,"excess":0.028059,"excess_ci":[-0.052779,0.149436],"committees":["HSFA","HSPW"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Air Freight & Logistics","Cargo Ground Transportation","Construction & Engineering","Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment","Construction Materials","Environmental & Facilities Services","Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Passenger Airlines","Passenger Ground Transportation","Rail Transportation","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors","Water Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"6 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 47 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"6 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 47 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":6,"n_other":47,"events":2737}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2021-08-06 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2021-08-06","changepoint_LR":38.537924,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.049011,"tradeday_rate_after":0.002976}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 99% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0739, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.073864,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.992537,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"8 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 3 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.38, Clopper-Pearson [0.11, 0.71], exact one-sided p = 0.855; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.375,"ci":[0.111113,0.710759],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.855469,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":8,"hits":3,"hit_rate":0.375,"ci":[0.111113,0.710759],"priced":53,"share_followed":0.150943}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 4%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.035; circular-shift null mean 0.042, 95th pct 0.084, p = 0.650. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0258, p = 0.413.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.035294,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.413192,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.035294,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":85,"cotraded_share":0.035294,"null_mean":0.042187,"null_p95":0.083529,"excess_p":0.65,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.035294,"excess_p_wo_top":0.57,"cotraded_car":0.025767,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.190097,0.24163],"cotraded_car_p":0.413192}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"4% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","detail":"4% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":3,"family_share":0.035294,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"25 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +14.80% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.1480 [-0.0172, 0.3132], t_KP = 1.54, over 14 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +27.65% (win rate 84%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.148003,"ci":[-0.017185,0.313192],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.073865,"p_holm":0.517058,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":25,"share_in_round_trips":0.588235,"priced":19,"realized_mean":0.276523,"realized_win_rate":0.842105,"opening_car":0.148003,"ci":[-0.017185,0.313192],"p":0.073865,"openings_priced":14}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2018-12-26","event_date":"2018-12-26","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.05,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2019-01-04","event_date":"2019-01-04","direction":"sell","move_pct":3.35,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-24","event_date":"2020-02-24","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.32,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}