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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029135-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029135.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.047744},{"date":"2025-03-10","filed":"2025-04-11","ticker":"LMT","issuer":"Lockheed Martin Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029135-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029135.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.028099},{"date":"2025-03-10","filed":"2025-04-11","ticker":"PEP","issuer":"PepsiCo, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029135-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029135.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.030123},{"date":"2025-03-10","filed":"2025-04-11","ticker":"PFE","issuer":"Pfizer, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029135-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029135.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.024998},{"date":"2025-03-10","filed":"2025-04-11","ticker":"DGX","issuer":"Quest Diagnostics Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029135-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029135.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.00465},{"date":"2025-03-10","filed":"2025-04-11","ticker":"TGT","issuer":"Target Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029135-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029135.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.07433},{"date":"2025-03-10","filed":"2025-04-11","ticker":"HSY","issuer":"The Hershey Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029135-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029135.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.083075},{"date":"2025-03-10","filed":"2025-04-11","ticker":"USB","issuer":"U.S. Bancorp Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029135-013","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029135.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.016085},{"date":"2025-03-10","filed":"2025-04-11","ticker":"UPS","issuer":"United Parcel Service, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20029135-014","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20029135.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.023463},{"date":"2025-03-10","filed":"2026-08-13","ticker":"PFE","issuer":"Pfizer, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20033779-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033779.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.024998},{"date":"2025-03-10","filed":"2026-08-13","ticker":"DGX","issuer":"Quest Diagnostics Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20033779-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033779.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.00465},{"date":"2025-03-10","filed":"2026-08-13","ticker":"TGT","issuer":"Target Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":true,"trade_id":"H20033779-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033779.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.07433},{"date":"2025-03-10","filed":"2026-08-13","ticker":"USB","issuer":"U.S. Bancorp Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20033779-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033779.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.016085}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"46% of 122 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.459, 90% Wilson [0.387, 0.533]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = -1.59 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.459016,"ci":[0.386501,0.53331],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":122,"lowest_band_share":0.459016,"lowest_band_ci":[0.386501,0.53331],"share_over_50k":0.040984,"max_z":2.493423,"size_gap":-1.589065,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":4,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"79 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 39 and trading spans 82% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.026 (identified set [0.016, 0.062]); trade-count HHI 0.016 vs. 95th percentile 0.012 of 122 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.82 [0.78, 0.91]. Top three issuers (SCHP, SHY, EMXC) carry at least 6% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":38.601837,"ci":[16.179712,63.556204],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":122,"issuers":79,"hhi_mid":0.025906,"hhi_bounds":[0.015734,0.061806],"n_eff":38.601837,"hhi_count":0.015722,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.012228,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.815079,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.784506,0.910355],"top3_share_lower":0.062207,"top3":["SCHP","SHY","EMXC"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"38% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 3.3% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.1%).","detail":"Batch-day share 11/29, Wilson [0.25, 0.53]; index of dispersion 11.29 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.033 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.061, p = 0.864.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.37931,"ci":[0.247495,0.531723],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.864,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":122,"trade_days":29,"batch_share_trades":0.778689,"batch_day_share":0.37931,"batch_day_ci":[0.247495,0.531723],"dispersion_index":11.292233,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.032787,"proximity_null_mean":0.061188,"proximity_null_p95":0.122951,"proximity_p":0.864,"proximity_nonroutine":0.032787,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 111 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.29% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0029; 90% KP interval [-0.0313, 0.0372]; t_BMP = 0.38, r-bar = 0.058, t_KP = 0.14, Patell Z = 0.45, Corrado Z = 0.49. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0287, 0.0388]. Calendar-time alpha 8.83%/yr (NW t = 0.52, 425 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.002925,"ci":[-0.031312,0.037162],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.445768,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.00207},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001672},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.004879},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.014966},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.038761},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.088341}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":111,"theta":0.002925,"ci":[-0.031312,0.037162],"p":0.445768,"t_kp":0.136678,"rbar":0.058324,"se_cs":0.007355,"se_kp":0.020639,"t_cs":0.397714,"t_bmp":0.38355,"patell_z":0.44538,"corrado_z":0.493354,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.028666,0.038761],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000351,"se":0.000677,"days":425,"t":0.517658,"p_one_sided":0.302348},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000773,0.001474],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":111,"theta":0.00207,"ci":[-0.010883,0.015022],"p":0.423103,"t_kp":0.194419,"rbar":0.058324,"se_cs":0.002782,"se_kp":0.007808,"t_cs":0.743878,"t_bmp":0.545586,"patell_z":0.481606,"corrado_z":0.594826},"21":{"n":111,"theta":0.002925,"ci":[-0.031312,0.037162],"p":0.445768,"t_kp":0.136678,"rbar":0.058324,"se_cs":0.007355,"se_kp":0.020639,"t_cs":0.397714,"t_bmp":0.38355,"patell_z":0.44538,"corrado_z":0.493354},"63":{"n":111,"theta":0.001672,"ci":[-0.049771,0.053114],"p":0.461757,"t_kp":0.096229,"rbar":0.058324,"se_cs":0.011051,"se_kp":0.031011,"t_cs":0.151271,"t_bmp":0.270043,"patell_z":0.256785,"corrado_z":0.282161}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 4 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.25, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.01, 0.75]; exact one-sided p = 0.938; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.873. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.25,"ci":[0.012741,0.751395],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.9375,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":4,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.25,"ci":[0.012741,0.751395],"p_exact":0.9375,"p_magnitude":0.8725,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2019-01-04","move":0.033496,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-17","move":0.053992,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-18","move":-0.050633,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-24","move":0.090603,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,8.01956],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,8.01956],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,35.107023],"absence_days":5,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"57 of 118 trades (48.3%) were disclosed late; median lag 45 days.","detail":"Late share 0.483, Wilson [0.409, 0.558]; 90th percentile lag 547 days; longest 594 days. Late-minus-timely signed CAR 0.0279, p = 0.016.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.483051,"ci":[0.408616,0.558246],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.016,"p_holm":0.16,"q_bh":0.168,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":118,"amendment_rows_excluded":5,"late":57,"late_from_trade":57,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.483051,"late_ci":[0.408616,0.558246],"median_lag":45,"p90_lag":547,"max_lag":594,"filings":13,"late_filings":3,"late_priced":57,"timely_priced":54,"late_priced_dates":12,"late_minus_timely_car":0.027894,"late_minus_timely_ci":[0.004279,0.052946],"late_minus_timely_p":0.016}},{"id":"T8","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"31% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 14% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSWM; jurisdiction sectors Distillers & Vintners, Health Care, Life & Health Insurance, Tobacco. Dollar share 0.306 (identified set [0.102, 0.630], bootstrap 0.231-0.400); benchmarks S&P 500 0.139, congressional peers 0.119.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.167872,"ci":[0.092578,0.261825],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":97,"in_jurisdiction_trades":27,"share":0.306486,"share_bounds":[0.101542,0.629695],"share_ci":[0.231192,0.400439],"benchmark_sp500":0.138614,"benchmark_peers":0.11941,"excess":0.167872,"excess_ci":[0.092578,0.261825],"committees":["HSWM"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Distillers & Vintners","Health Care","Life & Health Insurance","Tobacco"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"26 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +1.39% in the trade's favour, +1.43% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = 0.0139; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0143 [-0.0036, 0.0436], p = 0.172; mean pre-trade drift psi = 0.0038.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.014309,"ci":[-0.003597,0.043559],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.172,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.707111,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.007418},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.015097},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.01682},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":26,"n_other":85,"theta9":0.013883,"diff":0.014309,"ci":[-0.003597,0.043559],"p":0.172,"pre_trade_drift":0.003768,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":1493,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":723,"committee_markup":336,"committee_reported":311,"became_law":123},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.234234,"trade_dates":10,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2018-12-28 (permutation p = 0.248).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2018-12-28","changepoint_LR":6.112808,"changepoint_p":0.248,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.017316}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 66% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0029, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.002925,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.656716,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"14 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 7 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson [0.26, 0.74], exact one-sided p = 0.605; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.263585,0.736415],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.604736,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"hits":7,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.263585,0.736415],"priced":111,"share_followed":0.126126}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"13% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 9%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.131; circular-shift null mean 0.085, 95th pct 0.139, p = 0.080. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0034, p = 0.546.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.131148,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.545973,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.122951,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":122,"cotraded_share":0.131148,"null_mean":0.085196,"null_p95":0.139344,"excess_p":0.08,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.122951,"excess_p_wo_top":0.13,"cotraded_car":0.003377,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.048069,0.054823],"cotraded_car_p":0.545973}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"57% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +1.51% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0151 [-0.0220, 0.0523], t_KP = 0.55; family minus self 0.0301 [0.0019, 0.0507], p = 0.018.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.015124,"ci":[-0.022007,0.052255],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.292749,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":70,"family_share":0.57377,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.015124,"family_ci":[-0.022007,0.052255],"diff":0.03009,"diff_ci":[0.001922,0.050735],"diff_p":0.018}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"3 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -0.59% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0059 [-0.2060, 0.1942], t_KP = -0.13, over 3 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -3.12% (win rate 0%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.005908,"ci":[-0.206026,0.19421],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.547362,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":3,"share_in_round_trips":0.04918,"priced":3,"realized_mean":-0.031203,"realized_win_rate":0,"opening_car":-0.005908,"ci":[-0.206026,0.19421],"p":0.547362,"openings_priced":3}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2019-01-04","event_date":"2019-01-04","direction":"sell","move_pct":3.35,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-17","event_date":"2020-03-17","direction":"sell","move_pct":5.4,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-18","event_date":"2020-03-18","direction":"sell","move_pct":-5.06,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-24","event_date":"2020-03-24","direction":"sell","move_pct":9.06,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}