{"id":"M001206","trades":[{"date":"2019-05-03","filed":"2020-07-09","ticker":"DMRC","issuer":"Digimarc Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20016922-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016922.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.23516},{"date":"2019-09-05","filed":"2019-09-20","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012286-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012286.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.018291},{"date":"2019-09-05","filed":"2019-09-20","ticker":"SFTBY","issuer":"Softbank Corp Unsponsored ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20012286-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012286.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.039337},{"date":"2020-05-11","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"AGN","issuer":"Allergan plc Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"exchange","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20017819-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"ABBV","issuer":"AbbVie Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.023256},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"GOOGL","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.008537},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.003763},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.017272},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"BIP","issuer":"Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP Limited Partnership Units","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.04656},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"FISI","issuer":"Financial Institutions, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.034407},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"INTC","issuer":"Intel Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.044499},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"MET","issuer":"Metlife, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.01367},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009984},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"PSX","issuer":"Phillips 66","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.018114},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"PG","issuer":"Procter & Gamble Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.01941},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"PRU","issuer":"Prudential Financial, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-013","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.006869},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"SFTBY","issuer":"Softbank Corp Unsponsored ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-014","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.007523},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"URI","issuer":"United Rentals, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-015","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001715},{"date":"2020-11-20","filed":"2020-12-09","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017819-016","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017819.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.018758}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"89% of 18 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.889, 90% Wilson [0.714, 0.963]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.888889,"ci":[0.713624,0.962523],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"lowest_band_share":0.888889,"lowest_band_ci":[0.713624,0.962523],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":1,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"16 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 8 and trading spans 71% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.132 (identified set [0.063, 0.418]); trade-count HHI 0.068 vs. 95th percentile 0.068 of 18 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.078). Normalized sector entropy 0.71 [0.28, 0.80]. Top three issuers (UNH, MSFT, AMZN) carry at least 13% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":7.573808,"ci":[2.391106,16],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"issuers":16,"hhi_mid":0.132034,"hhi_bounds":[0.0625,0.418216],"n_eff":7.573808,"hhi_count":0.067901,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.067901,"peer_benchmark_p":0.078,"sector_entropy":0.707413,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.280247,0.802473],"top3_share_lower":0.132246,"top3":["UNH","MSFT","AMZN"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"33% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 5.6% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 8.8%).","detail":"Batch-day share 1/3, Wilson [0.08, 0.75]; index of dispersion 12.76 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.056 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.088, p = 0.624.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.333333,"ci":[0.078266,0.746466],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.624,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.986857,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"trade_days":3,"batch_share_trades":0.833333,"batch_day_share":0.333333,"batch_day_ci":[0.078266,0.746466],"dispersion_index":12.764883,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.055556,"proximity_null_mean":0.088288,"proximity_null_p95":0.333333,"proximity_p":0.624,"proximity_nonroutine":0.055556,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 18 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.79% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0179; 90% KP interval [-0.0497, 0.0139]; t_BMP = -0.40, r-bar = 0.000, t_KP = -0.40, Patell Z = -0.28, Corrado Z = -0.13. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0735, 0.0377]. Calendar-time alpha -126.32%/yr (NW t = -1.06, 63 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.017914,"ci":[-0.049724,0.013897],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.854334,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.00958},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.073449},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"not_assessed","value":-0.120252},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.017914},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.037655},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-1.263222}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"theta":-0.017914,"ci":[-0.049724,0.013897],"p":0.654692,"t_kp":-0.404878,"rbar":0,"se_cs":0.018286,"se_kp":0.018286,"t_cs":-0.979644,"t_bmp":-0.404878,"patell_z":-0.276945,"corrado_z":-0.126472,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.073476,0.037655],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.005013,"se":0.004751,"days":63,"t":-1.055203,"p_one_sided":0.854334},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.013277,0.003251],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":18,"theta":-0.00958,"ci":[-0.034588,0.015428],"p":0.69349,"t_kp":-0.515242,"rbar":0,"se_cs":0.014376,"se_kp":0.014376,"t_cs":-0.66639,"t_bmp":-0.515242,"patell_z":-0.49017,"corrado_z":-0.017875},"21":{"n":18,"theta":-0.017914,"ci":[-0.049724,0.013897],"p":0.654692,"t_kp":-0.404878,"rbar":0,"se_cs":0.018286,"se_kp":0.018286,"t_cs":-0.979644,"t_bmp":-0.404878,"patell_z":-0.276945,"corrado_z":-0.126472},"63":{"n":18,"theta":-0.073449,"ci":[-0.155124,0.008227],"p":0.844531,"t_kp":-1.044369,"rbar":0,"se_cs":0.046951,"se_kp":0.046951,"t_cs":-1.564385,"t_bmp":-1.044369,"patell_z":-1.065031,"corrado_z":-0.911114}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,36.578231],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,36.578231],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,346.312359],"absence_days":2,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 19 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 19 days. Another 2 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.125]; 90th percentile lag 58 days; longest 433 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.124648],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.105263,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":19,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":2,"excused_by_notification":2,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.124648],"median_lag":19,"p90_lag":57.6,"max_lag":433,"filings":3,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":18,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 0% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAP, HSHA, JSLC, JSPR; jurisdiction sectors none. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.000, congressional peers 0.000.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0,"ci":[0,0],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":16,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0,"benchmark_peers":0,"excess":0,"excess_ci":[0,0],"committees":["HSAP","HSHA","JSLC","JSPR"],"jurisdiction_sectors":[]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No legislative events tied to this member's committees.","detail":"No legislative events tied to this member's committees.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2019-05-06 (permutation p = 0.074).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2019-05-06","changepoint_LR":8.203486,"changepoint_p":0.074,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.004938}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 16% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0179, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.017914,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.156716,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"1 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 0 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson [0.00, 0.95], exact one-sided p = 1.000; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":1,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"priced":18,"share_followed":0.055556}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 23%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.167; circular-shift null mean 0.232, 95th pct 0.389, p = 0.810. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0213, p = 0.877.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.166667,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.876787,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.953281,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.166667,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"cotraded_share":0.166667,"null_mean":0.231762,"null_p95":0.388889,"excess_p":0.81,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.166667,"excess_p_wo_top":0.76,"cotraded_car":-0.021259,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.058346,0.015829],"cotraded_car_p":0.876787}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}