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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.913333,"ci":[0.867852,0.944168],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":150,"lowest_band_share":0.913333,"lowest_band_ci":[0.867852,0.944168],"share_over_50k":0.026667,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":16,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"24 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 10 and trading spans 70% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.096 (identified set [0.049, 0.295]); trade-count HHI 0.063 vs. 95th percentile 0.010 of 150 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.70 [0.60, 0.75]. Top three issuers (SPY, WYNN, VUG) carry at least 14% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":10.386328,"ci":[3.386225,20.47041],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":150,"issuers":24,"hhi_mid":0.09628,"hhi_bounds":[0.048851,0.295314],"n_eff":10.386328,"hhi_count":0.062933,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.010489,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.696086,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.604066,0.746719],"top3_share_lower":0.142575,"top3":["SPY","WYNN","VUG"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"32% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 59% of trades look routine; 10.7% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.9%).","detail":"Batch-day share 9/28, Wilson [0.20, 0.48]; index of dispersion 15.08 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.59 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.107 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.059, p = 0.148.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.321429,"ci":[0.197642,0.476684],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.148,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.572,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":150,"trade_days":28,"batch_share_trades":0.7,"batch_day_share":0.321429,"batch_day_ci":[0.197642,0.476684],"dispersion_index":15.081023,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.586667,"proximity_share":0.106667,"proximity_null_mean":0.058504,"proximity_null_p95":0.146667,"proximity_p":0.148,"proximity_nonroutine":0.145161,"proximity_routine":0.079545}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 144 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.17% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0117; 90% KP interval [-0.0420, 0.0187]; t_BMP = -2.08, r-bar = 0.058, t_KP = -0.66, Patell Z = -1.89, Corrado Z = -0.51. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0570, 0.0380]. Calendar-time alpha -15.60%/yr (NW t = -1.03, 289 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.01168,"ci":[-0.042023,0.018662],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.848836,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.005524},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.022429},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.004919},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.01168},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.038042},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.155982}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":144,"theta":-0.01168,"ci":[-0.042023,0.018662],"p":0.745226,"t_kp":-0.6612,"rbar":0.058167,"se_cs":0.005827,"se_kp":0.018328,"t_cs":-2.004596,"t_bmp":-2.079725,"patell_z":-1.888576,"corrado_z":-0.505963,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.057016,0.038042],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000619,"se":0.0006,"days":289,"t":-1.031455,"p_one_sided":0.848836},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001612,0.000375],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":144,"theta":-0.005524,"ci":[-0.02468,0.013631],"p":0.737514,"t_kp":-0.637263,"rbar":0.058167,"se_cs":0.003678,"se_kp":0.01157,"t_cs":-1.501753,"t_bmp":-2.004435,"patell_z":-2.137423,"corrado_z":-1.800521},"21":{"n":144,"theta":-0.01168,"ci":[-0.042023,0.018662],"p":0.745226,"t_kp":-0.6612,"rbar":0.058167,"se_cs":0.005827,"se_kp":0.018328,"t_cs":-2.004596,"t_bmp":-2.079725,"patell_z":-1.888576,"corrado_z":-0.505963},"63":{"n":144,"theta":-0.022429,"ci":[-0.077097,0.03224],"p":0.728765,"t_kp":-0.610546,"rbar":0.058167,"se_cs":0.010498,"se_kp":0.033021,"t_cs":-2.136428,"t_bmp":-1.9204,"patell_z":-1.774229,"corrado_z":-0.378027}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.493. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.4932,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2022-01-28","move":0.024835,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"76 of 152 trades (50.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 55 days.","detail":"Late share 0.500, Wilson [0.434, 0.566]; 90th percentile lag 143 days; longest 178 days. Late-minus-timely signed CAR 0.0138, p = 0.166.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.5,"ci":[0.433878,0.566122],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.166,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.4935,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":152,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":76,"late_from_trade":76,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.5,"late_ci":[0.433878,0.566122],"median_lag":55,"p90_lag":143,"max_lag":178,"filings":8,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":68,"timely_priced":76,"late_priced_dates":12,"late_minus_timely_car":0.013819,"late_minus_timely_ci":[-0.007868,0.034057],"late_minus_timely_p":0.166}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 14% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBU, HSWM; jurisdiction sectors Distillers & Vintners, Health Care, Life & Health Insurance, Tobacco. Dollar share 0.033 (identified set [0.003, 0.244], bootstrap 0.010-0.056); benchmarks S&P 500 0.139, congressional peers 0.119.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.105746,"ci":[-0.128618,-0.08243],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":136,"in_jurisdiction_trades":7,"share":0.032868,"share_bounds":[0.002973,0.244113],"share_ci":[0.009996,0.056184],"benchmark_sp500":0.138614,"benchmark_peers":0.11941,"excess":-0.105746,"excess_ci":[-0.128618,-0.08243],"committees":["HSBU","HSWM"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Distillers & Vintners","Health Care","Life & Health Insurance","Tobacco"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"7 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 137 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"7 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 137 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":7,"n_other":137,"events":1493}},{"id":"T10","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2021-07-29, trading ran at 0.18 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2021-07-29, trading ran at 0.18 times its earlier rate. Change point 2022-01-24 (p = 0.002).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":0.175866,"ci":[0.13237,0.233243],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Campaign Legal Center complaints over late disclosure of up to $22 million in trades","url":"https://www.forbes.com/sites/graisondangor/2021/07/29/3-members-of-congress-failed-to-properly-disclose-up-to-22-million-of-stock-trades-watchdog-says/"},{"title":"Insider investigation of STOCK Act violations names 14 members","url":"https://www.thedailybeast.com/stock-act-was-violated-by-14-members-of-congress-report-says"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2022-01-24","changepoint_LR":37.936769,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.095057,"tradeday_rate_after":0.005769,"scrutiny_date":"2021-07-29","rate_ratio":0.175866,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.13237,0.233243]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 24% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0117, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.01168,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.238806,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"26 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 9 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.35, Clopper-Pearson [0.19, 0.53], exact one-sided p = 0.962; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.346154,"ci":[0.19396,0.526162],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.962241,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":26,"hits":9,"hit_rate":0.346154,"ci":[0.19396,0.526162],"priced":144,"share_followed":0.180556}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"27% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 23%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.273; circular-shift null mean 0.235, 95th pct 0.340, p = 0.270. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0001, p = 0.467.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.273333,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.467476,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.266667,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":150,"cotraded_share":0.273333,"null_mean":0.234882,"null_p95":0.34,"excess_p":0.27,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.266667,"excess_p_wo_top":0.18,"cotraded_car":-0.000064,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.031184,0.031057],"cotraded_car_p":0.467476}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"21 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -3.25% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0325 [-0.0840, 0.0190], t_KP = -1.06, over 20 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -19.78% (win rate 14%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.032498,"ci":[-0.08399,0.018994],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.849747,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":21,"share_in_round_trips":0.28,"priced":7,"realized_mean":-0.197792,"realized_win_rate":0.142857,"opening_car":-0.032498,"ci":[-0.08399,0.018994],"p":0.849747,"openings_priced":20}},{"id":"T16","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"41 option trades (27% of all reported trades); the underlying moved -0.42% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"41 option trades (27% of all reported trades); the underlying moved -0.42% in the trade's favour over a month.","estimate":{"label":"Option-trade signed CAR","value":-0.00415,"ci":[-0.048368,0.040067],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.50177,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.714658,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":41,"option_share":0.269737,"option_car":-0.00415,"option_ci":[-0.048368,0.040067],"option_p":0.50177,"priced":39}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2022-01-28","event_date":"2022-01-28","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.48,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}