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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034963-015","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034963.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.046848},{"date":"2026-06-18","filed":"2026-07-26","ticker":"AMAT","issuer":"Applied Materials, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"dependent","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034963-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034963.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.07211},{"date":"2026-06-18","filed":"2026-07-26","ticker":"AMAT","issuer":"Applied Materials, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"dependent","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034963-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034963.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.07211},{"date":"2026-06-18","filed":"2026-07-26","ticker":"AMAT","issuer":"Applied Materials, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034963-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034963.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.07211},{"date":"2026-07-13","filed":"2026-08-27","ticker":"AMAT","issuer":"Applied Materials, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035243-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035243.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.075717},{"date":"2026-07-13","filed":"2026-08-27","ticker":"STE","issuer":"STERIS plc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035243-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035243.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.000189},{"date":"2026-07-13","filed":"2026-08-27","ticker":"GWW","issuer":"W.W. Grainger, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035243-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035243.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.006539}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"95% of 459 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.948, 90% Wilson [0.928, 0.962]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.947712,"ci":[0.927848,0.96233],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":459,"lowest_band_share":0.947712,"lowest_band_ci":[0.927848,0.96233],"share_over_50k":0.006536,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":43,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"110 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 42 and trading spans 82% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.024 (identified set [0.010, 0.127]); trade-count HHI 0.012 vs. 95th percentile 0.006 of 459 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.82 [0.76, 0.85]. Top three issuers (SBCF, RJF, AVGO) carry at least 4% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":41.952994,"ci":[7.889599,99.453322],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":459,"issuers":110,"hhi_mid":0.023836,"hhi_bounds":[0.010055,0.126749],"n_eff":41.952994,"hhi_count":0.011805,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.005513,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.820504,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.76431,0.852631],"top3_share_lower":0.040406,"top3":["SBCF","RJF","AVGO"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"61% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 9.4% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.7%).","detail":"Batch-day share 22/36, Wilson [0.47, 0.73]; index of dispersion 27.61 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.094 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.077, p = 0.222.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.611111,"ci":[0.474222,0.732466],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.222,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.65051,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":459,"trade_days":36,"batch_share_trades":0.921569,"batch_day_share":0.611111,"batch_day_ci":[0.474222,0.732466],"dispersion_index":27.605155,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.093682,"proximity_null_mean":0.077213,"proximity_null_p95":0.122004,"proximity_p":0.222,"proximity_nonroutine":0.093682,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 455 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.60% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0160; 90% KP interval [-0.0369, 0.0049]; t_BMP = -3.90, r-bar = 0.023, t_KP = -1.13, Patell Z = -4.60, Corrado Z = -3.90. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0739, 0.0610]. Calendar-time alpha -9.68%/yr (NW t = -0.89, 481 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.01601,"ci":[-0.036916,0.004897],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.870029,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.004256},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.026658},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.014657},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.016534},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.061001},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.09684}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":455,"theta":-0.01601,"ci":[-0.036916,0.004897],"p":0.870029,"t_kp":-1.127936,"rbar":0.02347,"se_cs":0.003672,"se_kp":0.012684,"t_cs":-4.360533,"t_bmp":-3.896741,"patell_z":-4.60134,"corrado_z":-3.899934,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.073866,0.061001],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000384,"se":0.000434,"days":481,"t":-0.885773,"p_one_sided":0.81213},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001099,0.000331],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":455,"theta":-0.004256,"ci":[-0.014478,0.005966],"p":0.762992,"t_kp":-0.716557,"rbar":0.02347,"se_cs":0.001795,"se_kp":0.006202,"t_cs":-2.370696,"t_bmp":-2.475528,"patell_z":-3.037501,"corrado_z":-3.783375},"21":{"n":455,"theta":-0.01601,"ci":[-0.036916,0.004897],"p":0.870029,"t_kp":-1.127936,"rbar":0.02347,"se_cs":0.003672,"se_kp":0.012684,"t_cs":-4.360533,"t_bmp":-3.896741,"patell_z":-4.60134,"corrado_z":-3.899934},"63":{"n":455,"theta":-0.026658,"ci":[-0.065109,0.011792],"p":0.90302,"t_kp":-1.30088,"rbar":0.02347,"se_cs":0.006753,"se_kp":0.023328,"t_cs":-3.947912,"t_bmp":-4.49422,"patell_z":-4.894183,"corrado_z":-3.808511}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.67, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.14, 0.98]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.384. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":3,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.3839,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2024-07-24","move":-0.022662,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-09","move":0.105019,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":25,"post_news_trades":10,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-10","move":-0.043819,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":25,"post_news_trades":4,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 4.82 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 4.82 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":4.820755,"ci":[3.521705,6.476611],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":4.820755,"rate_ratio_ci":[3.521705,6.476611],"rate_ratio_batchdays":1.668571,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0.083268,8.351722],"absence_days":15,"trades_in_absence":35}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"10 of 466 trades (2.1%) were disclosed late; median lag 36 days. Another 83 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.021, Wilson [0.013, 0.036]; 90th percentile lag 355 days; longest 404 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.021459,"ci":[0.012871,0.035572],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.199571,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":466,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":10,"late_from_trade":93,"excused_by_notification":83,"late_share":0.021459,"late_ci":[0.012871,0.035572],"median_lag":36,"p90_lag":355,"max_lag":404,"filings":21,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":10,"timely_priced":445,"late_priced_dates":1}},{"id":"T8","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"21% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 16% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSFA, HSJU, HSQJ; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Broadline Retail, Interactive Media & Services, Pharmaceuticals, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors. Dollar share 0.206 (identified set [0.027, 0.696], bootstrap 0.158-0.245); benchmarks S&P 500 0.091, congressional peers 0.158.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.048324,"ci":[0.000063,0.087013],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":455,"in_jurisdiction_trades":104,"share":0.206466,"share_bounds":[0.027336,0.695851],"share_ci":[0.158206,0.245156],"benchmark_sp500":0.091089,"benchmark_peers":0.158143,"excess":0.048324,"excess_ci":[0.000063,0.087013],"committees":["HSFA","HSJU","HSQJ"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Broadline Retail","Interactive Media & Services","Pharmaceuticals","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"94 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved -2.74% in the trade's favour, -1.43% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = -0.0274; pre-event minus other trades = -0.0143 [-0.0430, 0.0125], p = 0.8; mean pre-trade drift psi = -0.0080.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":-0.014343,"ci":[-0.042965,0.012487],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.8,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.986667,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.018854},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.010699},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000352},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":94,"n_other":361,"theta9":-0.027389,"diff":-0.014343,"ci":[-0.042965,0.012487],"p":0.8,"pre_trade_drift":-0.008003,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":3360,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":1613,"committee_markup":1112,"committee_reported":392,"became_law":243},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.206593,"trade_dates":21,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2024-08-10, trading ran at 0.77 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2024-08-10, trading ran at 0.77 times its earlier rate. Change point 2023-02-27 (p = 0.174).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":0.768333,"ci":[0.656089,0.899747],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Alternet: dependent child's trades reported months late","url":"https://www.alternet.org/stock-trading-congress/"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2023-02-27","changepoint_LR":7.031294,"changepoint_p":0.174,"tradeday_rate_before":0.3,"tradeday_rate_after":0.037457,"scrutiny_date":"2024-08-10","rate_ratio":0.768333,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.656089,0.899747]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 20% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0160, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.01601,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.201493,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"85 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 45 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.53, Clopper-Pearson [0.43, 0.62], exact one-sided p = 0.332; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.529412,"ci":[0.4348,0.622445],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.332323,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":85,"hits":45,"hit_rate":0.529412,"ci":[0.4348,0.622445],"priced":455,"share_followed":0.186813}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"22% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 19%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.224; circular-shift null mean 0.192, 95th pct 0.251, p = 0.200. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0214, p = 0.902.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.224401,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.902101,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.953281,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.224401,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":459,"cotraded_share":0.224401,"null_mean":0.192271,"null_p95":0.250763,"excess_p":0.2,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.224401,"excess_p_wo_top":0.16,"cotraded_car":-0.021426,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.047531,0.004679],"cotraded_car_p":0.902101}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"50% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -1.55% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0155 [-0.0388, 0.0078], t_KP = -0.95; family minus self 0.0011 [-0.0122, 0.0108], p = 0.424.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.015478,"ci":[-0.038806,0.007849],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.828602,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.936795,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":228,"family_share":0.496732,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.015478,"family_ci":[-0.038806,0.007849],"diff":0.001056,"diff_ci":[-0.012205,0.010817],"diff_p":0.424}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"24 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -3.29% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0329 [-0.0560, -0.0097], t_KP = -2.19, over 24 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -11.70% (win rate 26%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.032867,"ci":[-0.056035,-0.0097],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.980631,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":24,"share_in_round_trips":0.104575,"priced":23,"realized_mean":-0.117012,"realized_win_rate":0.26087,"opening_car":-0.032867,"ci":[-0.056035,-0.0097],"p":0.980631,"openings_priced":24}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2024-07-24","event_date":"2024-07-24","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.27,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-09","event_date":"2025-04-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":10.5,"trade":"25 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-10","event_date":"2025-04-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.38,"trade":"25 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}