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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009933},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"CSCO","issuer":"Cisco Systems, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.017731},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"COST","issuer":"Costco Wholesale Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.004767},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"EMR","issuer":"Emerson Electric Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003804},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"HD","issuer":"Home Depot, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.028189},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"ITW","issuer":"Illinois Tool Works Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-013","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.018968},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"ICE","issuer":"Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-014","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.046932},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"JNJ","issuer":"Johnson & Johnson Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-015","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.002257},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"LHX","issuer":"L3Harris Technologies, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-016","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.046376},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"MCD","issuer":"McDonald's Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-017","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.028809},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"MDT","issuer":"Medtronic plc. Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-018","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.004339},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-019","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.082542},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"NEE","issuer":"NextEra Energy, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-020","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.048761},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"PEP","issuer":"Pepsico, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-021","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.008005},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"PG","issuer":"Procter & Gamble Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-022","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.021973},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"O","issuer":"Realty Income Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-023","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.032294},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-024","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.07291},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"V","issuer":"Visa Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-025","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001907},{"date":"2026-07-30","filed":"2026-08-14","ticker":"WMT","issuer":"Walmart Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035204-026","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035204.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003855},{"date":"2026-09-18","filed":"2026-10-14","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035651-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035651.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010393}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of 124 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 1.000, 90% Wilson [0.979, 1.000]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":1,"ci":[0.978647,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":124,"lowest_band_share":1,"lowest_band_ci":[0.978647,1],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":6,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"38 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 28 and trading spans 85% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.036 (identified set [0.026, 0.267]); trade-count HHI 0.036 vs. 95th percentile 0.012 of 124 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.85 [0.80, 0.89]. Top three issuers (LHX, ADI, UNH) carry at least 1% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":28.058394,"ci":[3.745441,38],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":124,"issuers":38,"hhi_mid":0.03564,"hhi_bounds":[0.026316,0.266991],"n_eff":28.058394,"hhi_count":0.03564,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.01224,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.85166,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.80103,0.885536],"top3_share_lower":0.014189,"top3":["LHX","ADI","UNH"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"75% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 42% of trades look routine; 4.8% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.6%).","detail":"Batch-day share 6/8, Wilson [0.46, 0.91]; index of dispersion 24.15 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.42 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.048 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.076, p = 0.772.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.75,"ci":[0.460153,0.913485],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.772,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":124,"trade_days":8,"batch_share_trades":0.983871,"batch_day_share":0.75,"batch_day_ci":[0.460153,0.913485],"dispersion_index":24.149295,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.419355,"proximity_share":0.048387,"proximity_null_mean":0.075732,"proximity_null_p95":0.170161,"proximity_p":0.772,"proximity_nonroutine":0.041667,"proximity_routine":0.057692}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 110 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.25% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0125; 90% KP interval [-0.0268, 0.0518]; t_BMP = 2.04, r-bar = 0.115, t_KP = 0.52, Patell Z = 1.86, Corrado Z = 0.71. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0529, 0.0828]. Calendar-time alpha 14.19%/yr (NW t = 0.80, 146 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.012473,"ci":[-0.026843,0.051789],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.301706,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.002049},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.03879},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.00815},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.012473},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.082819},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.141917}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":110,"theta":0.012473,"ci":[-0.026843,0.051789],"p":0.301706,"t_kp":0.521016,"rbar":0.115042,"se_cs":0.006059,"se_kp":0.023699,"t_cs":2.058652,"t_bmp":2.037943,"patell_z":1.85976,"corrado_z":0.709442,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.052859,0.082819],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000563,"se":0.000701,"days":146,"t":0.803332,"p_one_sided":0.210891},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.0006,0.001726],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":110,"theta":-0.002049,"ci":[-0.0222,0.018102],"p":0.547637,"t_kp":-0.119971,"rbar":0.115042,"se_cs":0.003105,"se_kp":0.012147,"t_cs":-0.659797,"t_bmp":-0.469265,"patell_z":-0.492426,"corrado_z":-1.040261},"21":{"n":110,"theta":0.012473,"ci":[-0.026843,0.051789],"p":0.301706,"t_kp":0.521016,"rbar":0.115042,"se_cs":0.006059,"se_kp":0.023699,"t_cs":2.058652,"t_bmp":2.037943,"patell_z":1.85976,"corrado_z":0.709442},"63":{"n":83,"theta":0.03879,"ci":[-0.058025,0.135604],"p":0.265258,"t_kp":0.629894,"rbar":0.115042,"se_cs":0.016948,"se_kp":0.058194,"t_cs":2.288724,"t_bmp":2.162818,"patell_z":2.642109,"corrado_z":1.587459}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"34 of 127 trades (26.8%) were disclosed late; median lag 27 days.","detail":"Late share 0.268, Wilson [0.208, 0.337]; 90th percentile lag 917 days; longest 917 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.267717,"ci":[0.208431,0.336693],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":127,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":34,"late_from_trade":34,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.267717,"late_ci":[0.208431,0.336693],"median_lag":27,"p90_lag":917,"max_lag":917,"filings":8,"late_filings":2,"late_priced":24,"timely_priced":86,"late_priced_dates":1}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"14% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 11% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAS, HSGO, HSSY; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Biotechnology, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors. Dollar share 0.136 (identified set [0.010, 0.703], bootstrap 0.078-0.239); benchmarks S&P 500 0.081, congressional peers 0.109.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.027797,"ci":[-0.030405,0.130472],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":110,"in_jurisdiction_trades":15,"share":0.136364,"share_bounds":[0.010427,0.702916],"share_ci":[0.078161,0.239039],"benchmark_sp500":0.081188,"benchmark_peers":0.108566,"excess":0.027797,"excess_ci":[-0.030405,0.130472],"committees":["HSAS","HSGO","HSSY"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Biotechnology","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"9 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 101 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"9 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 101 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":9,"n_other":101,"events":987}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2025-09-18 (permutation p = 0.014).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2025-09-18","changepoint_LR":12.197691,"changepoint_p":0.014,"tradeday_rate_before":0.001524,"tradeday_rate_after":0.026718}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 83% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0125, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.012473,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.828358,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"12 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 7 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.58, Clopper-Pearson [0.32, 0.82], exact one-sided p = 0.387; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.583333,"ci":[0.315238,0.818975],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.387207,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"hits":7,"hit_rate":0.583333,"ci":[0.315238,0.818975],"priced":110,"share_followed":0.109091}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"30% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 22%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.298; circular-shift null mean 0.224, 95th pct 0.355, p = 0.240. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0180, p = 0.194.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.298387,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.193906,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.298387,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":124,"cotraded_share":0.298387,"null_mean":0.223526,"null_p95":0.354839,"excess_p":0.24,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.298387,"excess_p_wo_top":0.16,"cotraded_car":0.017971,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.018749,0.054692],"cotraded_car_p":0.193906}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.73% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0273 [-0.0366, 0.0911], t_KP = 0.86, over 17 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +9.60% (win rate 76%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.027278,"ci":[-0.036579,0.091136],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.201581,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":18,"share_in_round_trips":0.290323,"priced":17,"realized_mean":0.095988,"realized_win_rate":0.764706,"opening_car":0.027278,"ci":[-0.036579,0.091136],"p":0.201581,"openings_priced":17}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}