{"id":"M001220","trades":[{"date":"2023-02-07","filed":"2023-03-23","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022526-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022526.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.006049},{"date":"2023-02-28","filed":"2023-03-23","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022526-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022526.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.005089},{"date":"2023-02-28","filed":"2023-03-23","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022526-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022526.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.005089},{"date":"2023-03-07","filed":"2023-04-12","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022656-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022656.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.068267},{"date":"2023-08-25","filed":"2023-09-26","ticker":"TWLO","issuer":"Twilio Inc. Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023739-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023739.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.056991},{"date":"2023-10-05","filed":"2023-11-16","ticker":"SCHW","issuer":"Charles Schwab Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023977-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023977.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003321},{"date":"2024-05-31","filed":"2024-07-03","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025388-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025388.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.063641},{"date":"2024-06-06","filed":"2024-07-03","ticker":"IBKR","issuer":"Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025388-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025388.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.023268},{"date":"2024-06-28","filed":"2024-07-03","ticker":"DAL","issuer":"Delta Air Lines, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025388-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025388.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.045519},{"date":"2024-07-23","filed":"2024-09-03","ticker":"DAL","issuer":"Delta Air Lines, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025765-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025765.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.023613},{"date":"2024-08-13","filed":"2024-09-25","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025892-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.008871},{"date":"2024-08-19","filed":"2024-09-25","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025892-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003169},{"date":"2024-10-25","filed":"2024-11-13","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026207-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026207.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.037995},{"date":"2024-11-06","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"DJT","issuer":"Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.190777},{"date":"2024-11-08","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"DJT","issuer":"Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-013","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.114206},{"date":"2024-11-13","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.033451},{"date":"2024-11-13","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"SCHW","issuer":"Charles Schwab Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.036353},{"date":"2024-11-13","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"IBKR","issuer":"Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.0487},{"date":"2024-11-13","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.006306},{"date":"2024-11-13","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026202},{"date":"2024-11-13","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026202},{"date":"2024-11-13","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026202},{"date":"2024-11-13","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026202},{"date":"2024-11-13","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026202},{"date":"2024-11-13","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"SHEL","issuer":"Shell PLC American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.01503},{"date":"2024-11-13","filed":"2024-12-10","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026360-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026360.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.071656}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"96% of 26 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.962, 90% Wilson [0.845, 0.991]. No firm-event calendar, so the event-linked size gap was not computed.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.961538,"ci":[0.844703,0.991372],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":26,"lowest_band_share":0.961538,"lowest_band_ci":[0.844703,0.991372],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"11 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 4 and trading spans 45% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.251 (identified set [0.092, 0.827]); trade-count HHI 0.166 vs. 95th percentile 0.047 of 26 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.45 [0.37, 0.56]. Top three issuers (NVDA, AMZN, AAPL) carry at least 12% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":3.985239,"ci":[1.208921,10.840228],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":26,"issuers":11,"hhi_mid":0.250926,"hhi_bounds":[0.092249,0.827184],"n_eff":3.985239,"hhi_count":0.16568,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.047337,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.448929,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.366813,0.558968],"top3_share_lower":0.121673,"top3":["NVDA","AMZN","AAPL"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 0.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.4%).","detail":"Batch-day share 1/15, Wilson [0.02, 0.25]; index of dispersion 5.26 (chi-square p = 2e-263); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.000 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.054, p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.066667,"ci":[0.015016,0.250751],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":26,"trade_days":15,"batch_share_trades":0.423077,"batch_day_share":0.066667,"batch_day_ci":[0.015016,0.250751],"dispersion_index":5.262807,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0,"proximity_null_mean":0.053877,"proximity_null_p95":0.230769,"proximity_p":1,"proximity_nonroutine":0,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 26 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.46% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0146; 90% KP interval [-0.0403, 0.0696]; t_BMP = 0.52, r-bar = 0.043, t_KP = 0.35, Patell Z = 0.49, Corrado Z = 0.06. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0673, 0.1249]. Calendar-time alpha 31.90%/yr (NW t = 0.72, 191 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.014641,"ci":[-0.040299,0.069581],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.3647,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.015626},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.008033},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.00332},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":0.088407},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.124876},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.318981}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":26,"theta":0.014641,"ci":[-0.040299,0.069581],"p":0.3647,"t_kp":0.349825,"rbar":0.04316,"se_cs":0.02182,"se_kp":0.032164,"t_cs":0.670967,"t_bmp":0.515654,"patell_z":0.493742,"corrado_z":0.063753,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.067333,0.124876],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.001266,"se":0.00176,"days":191,"t":0.719298,"p_one_sided":0.235979},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.00174,0.004272],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":26,"theta":-0.015626,"ci":[-0.0424,0.011148],"p":0.884504,"t_kp":-1.227704,"rbar":0.04316,"se_cs":0.010634,"se_kp":0.015674,"t_cs":-1.469487,"t_bmp":-1.809676,"patell_z":-1.326921,"corrado_z":-1.682455},"21":{"n":26,"theta":0.014641,"ci":[-0.040299,0.069581],"p":0.3647,"t_kp":0.349825,"rbar":0.04316,"se_cs":0.02182,"se_kp":0.032164,"t_cs":0.670967,"t_bmp":0.515654,"patell_z":0.493742,"corrado_z":0.063753},"63":{"n":26,"theta":0.008033,"ci":[-0.101792,0.117859],"p":0.569213,"t_kp":-0.176178,"rbar":0.04316,"se_cs":0.043619,"se_kp":0.064295,"t_cs":0.184174,"t_bmp":-0.259692,"patell_z":-0.282423,"corrado_z":-0.159602}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.507. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.5068,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2024-07-24","move":-0.022662,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 26 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 27 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.094]; 90th percentile lag 42 days; longest 44 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.094252],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":26,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.094252],"median_lag":27,"p90_lag":42,"max_lag":44,"filings":9,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":26,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 3% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBU, HSSM, HSVR; jurisdiction sectors Health Care Facilities, Health Care Services, Regional Banks. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.026, congressional peers 0.010.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.025743,"ci":[-0.025743,-0.025743],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":26,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0.025743,"benchmark_peers":0.009626,"excess":-0.025743,"excess_ci":[-0.025743,-0.025743],"committees":["HSBU","HSSM","HSVR"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Health Care Facilities","Health Care Services","Regional Banks"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 26 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 26 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":26,"events":2066}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2024-11-06 (permutation p = 0.018).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2024-11-06","changepoint_LR":11.36449,"changepoint_p":0.018,"tradeday_rate_before":0.026316,"tradeday_rate_after":0.5}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 87% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0146, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.014641,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.865672,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"1 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson [0.05, 1.00], exact one-sided p = 0.500; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"priced":26,"share_followed":0.038462}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"54% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 37%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.538; circular-shift null mean 0.368, 95th pct 0.538, p = 0.080. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0303, p = 0.354.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.538462,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.353707,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.461538,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":26,"cotraded_share":0.538462,"null_mean":0.368298,"null_p95":0.538462,"excess_p":0.08,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.461538,"excess_p_wo_top":0.23,"cotraded_car":0.030255,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.030123,0.090633],"cotraded_car_p":0.353707}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"88% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +0.50% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0050 [-0.0522, 0.0623], t_KP = 0.06; family minus self -0.0834 [-0.1476, 0.0380], p = 0.800.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.005019,"ci":[-0.052242,0.06228],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.477281,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":23,"family_share":0.884615,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.005019,"family_ci":[-0.052242,0.06228],"diff":-0.083388,"diff_ci":[-0.147636,0.038039],"diff_p":0.800448}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -0.99% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0099 [-0.1050, 0.0853], t_KP = -0.58, over 7 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +7.14% (win rate 57%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.009856,"ci":[-0.105021,0.085309],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.707657,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":7,"share_in_round_trips":0.538462,"priced":7,"realized_mean":0.071444,"realized_win_rate":0.571429,"opening_car":-0.009856,"ci":[-0.105021,0.085309],"p":0.707657,"openings_priced":7}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2024-07-24","event_date":"2024-07-24","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.27,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}