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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033746-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033746.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.031617},{"date":"2025-12-31","filed":"2026-01-07","ticker":"CBRL","issuer":"Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033746-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033746.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.182503},{"date":"2025-12-31","filed":"2026-01-24","ticker":"HY","issuer":"Hyster-Yale, Inc. Class A common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033856-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033856.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.101775},{"date":"2026-01-05","filed":"2026-01-24","ticker":"CBRL","issuer":"Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033856-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033856.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.214306},{"date":"2026-01-05","filed":"2026-01-24","ticker":"HY","issuer":"Hyster-Yale, Inc. Class A common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033856-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033856.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.075341},{"date":"2026-01-09","filed":"2026-01-24","ticker":"T","issuer":"AT&T Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033856-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033856.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.0132},{"date":"2026-01-23","filed":"2026-02-20","ticker":"HOG","issuer":"Harley-Davidson, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034034-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034034.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.022215},{"date":"2026-01-30","filed":"2026-02-20","ticker":"T","issuer":"AT&T Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034034-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034034.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.034265},{"date":"2026-01-30","filed":"2026-02-20","ticker":null,"issuer":"Verizon Communications Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,15001],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20034034-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034034.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2026-02-03","filed":"2026-02-20","ticker":"SMPL","issuer":"The Simply Good Foods Company - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034034-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034034.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.024498},{"date":"2026-02-05","filed":"2026-02-20","ticker":"GNPX","issuer":"Genprex, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034034-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034034.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.053891},{"date":"2026-02-11","filed":"2026-02-20","ticker":"SMPL","issuer":"The Simply Good Foods Company - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034034-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034034.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.043529},{"date":"2026-02-12","filed":"2026-02-20","ticker":"DNUT","issuer":"Krispy Kreme, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034034-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034034.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.013967},{"date":"2026-02-18","filed":"2026-02-20","ticker":"COIN","issuer":"Coinbase Global, Inc. - 3Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034034-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034034.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.106967},{"date":"2026-03-12","filed":"2026-03-24","ticker":"HOG","issuer":"Harley-Davidson, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034217-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034217.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001312},{"date":"2026-03-12","filed":"2026-03-24","ticker":"LGIH","issuer":"LGI Homes, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034217-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034217.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.078877},{"date":"2026-03-12","filed":"2026-03-24","ticker":null,"issuer":"The Simply Good Foods Company -","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20034217-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034217.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2026-03-13","filed":"2026-03-24","ticker":"SMPL","issuer":"The Simply Good Foods Company - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034217-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034217.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.007253},{"date":"2026-03-17","filed":"2026-03-24","ticker":"DNUT","issuer":"Krispy Kreme, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034217-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034217.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.013191},{"date":"2026-03-18","filed":"2026-03-24","ticker":"LGIH","issuer":"LGI Homes, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034217-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034217.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.047605},{"date":"2026-03-19","filed":"2026-03-24","ticker":"LGIH","issuer":"LGI Homes, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034217-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034217.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.091853},{"date":"2026-03-20","filed":"2026-03-24","ticker":"LGIH","issuer":"LGI Homes, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034217-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034217.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.129113},{"date":"2026-03-23","filed":"2026-03-24","ticker":"CBRL","issuer":"Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034217-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034217.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.073555},{"date":"2026-03-24","filed":"2026-04-28","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034424-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034424.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.000832},{"date":"2026-03-26","filed":"2026-04-28","ticker":"LGIH","issuer":"LGI Homes, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034424-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034424.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.04131},{"date":"2026-04-01","filed":"2026-04-28","ticker":"CBRL","issuer":"Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034424-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034424.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010303},{"date":"2026-04-07","filed":"2026-04-28","ticker":"HOG","issuer":"Harley-Davidson, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034424-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034424.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.03144},{"date":"2026-05-07","filed":"2026-05-19","ticker":"IHG","issuer":"Intercontinental Hotels Group American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034587-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034587.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.000082},{"date":"2026-05-07","filed":"2026-05-19","ticker":"RYCEY","issuer":"ROLLS ROYCE HLDGS S/ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20034587-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034587.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.085352},{"date":"2026-05-18","filed":"2026-05-19","ticker":"T","issuer":"AT&T Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034587-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034587.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.024999},{"date":"2026-05-21","filed":"2026-06-05","ticker":"T","issuer":"AT&T Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034721-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034721.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.018571},{"date":"2026-06-04","filed":"2026-06-05","ticker":"T","issuer":"AT&T Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034721-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034721.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.003022},{"date":"2026-06-09","filed":"2026-07-09","ticker":"DASH","issuer":"DoorDash, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034952-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034952.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.07785},{"date":"2026-08-14","filed":"2026-08-20","ticker":"T","issuer":"AT&T Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035291-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035291.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.015419}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"10% of 193 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.098, 90% Wilson [0.069, 0.139]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.098446,"ci":[0.068531,0.139462],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":193,"lowest_band_share":0.098446,"lowest_band_ci":[0.068531,0.139462],"share_over_50k":0.352332,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":16,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"35 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 10 and trading spans 56% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.101 (identified set [0.061, 0.196]); trade-count HHI 0.069 vs. 95th percentile 0.009 of 193 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.56 [0.50, 0.64]. Top three issuers (HOG, F, AAL) carry at least 25% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":9.912681,"ci":[5.092184,16.426399],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":193,"issuers":35,"hhi_mid":0.100881,"hhi_bounds":[0.060878,0.196379],"n_eff":9.912681,"hhi_count":0.069344,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.008832,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.556134,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.504944,0.637607],"top3_share_lower":0.252931,"top3":["HOG","F","AAL"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"10% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 7% of trades look routine; 8.3% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.0%).","detail":"Batch-day share 13/128, Wilson [0.07, 0.15]; index of dispersion 1.47 (chi-square p = 1.28e-09); routine share 0.07 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.083 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.060, p = 0.226.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.101562,"ci":[0.065574,0.154046],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.226,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.65051,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":193,"trade_days":128,"batch_share_trades":0.227979,"batch_day_share":0.101562,"batch_day_ci":[0.065574,0.154046],"dispersion_index":1.467333,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.067358,"proximity_share":0.082902,"proximity_null_mean":0.059954,"proximity_null_p95":0.103627,"proximity_p":0.226,"proximity_nonroutine":0.077778,"proximity_routine":0.153846}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 166 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.90% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0290; 90% KP interval [-0.0779, 0.1360]; t_BMP = 3.11, r-bar = 0.195, t_KP = 0.48, Patell Z = 3.02, Corrado Z = 2.83. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0261, 0.0573]. Calendar-time alpha -9.45%/yr (NW t = -0.53, 388 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.029033,"ci":[-0.077914,0.135981],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.701329,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.004453},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.076688},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.029539},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.029033},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.057331},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.094468}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":166,"theta":0.029033,"ci":[-0.077914,0.135981],"p":0.314472,"t_kp":0.484117,"rbar":0.195263,"se_cs":0.010063,"se_kp":0.064654,"t_cs":2.885118,"t_bmp":3.110375,"patell_z":3.021897,"corrado_z":2.832848,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.026117,0.057331],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000375,"se":0.00071,"days":388,"t":-0.528226,"p_one_sided":0.701329},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001549,0.000799],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":166,"theta":0.004453,"ci":[-0.044483,0.05339],"p":0.432174,"t_kp":0.171108,"rbar":0.195263,"se_cs":0.004605,"se_kp":0.029584,"t_cs":0.967164,"t_bmp":1.099341,"patell_z":1.054902,"corrado_z":0.574819},"21":{"n":166,"theta":0.029033,"ci":[-0.077914,0.135981],"p":0.314472,"t_kp":0.484117,"rbar":0.195263,"se_cs":0.010063,"se_kp":0.064654,"t_cs":2.885118,"t_bmp":3.110375,"patell_z":3.021897,"corrado_z":2.832848},"63":{"n":165,"theta":0.076688,"ci":[-0.131338,0.284715],"p":0.244909,"t_kp":0.692156,"rbar":0.195263,"se_cs":0.019631,"se_kp":0.125757,"t_cs":3.906431,"t_bmp":4.433903,"patell_z":4.453957,"corrado_z":3.287077}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 6 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.17, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.01, 0.58]; exact one-sided p = 0.984; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.730. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.166667,"ci":[0.008512,0.581803],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.984375,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":6,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.166667,"ci":[0.008512,0.581803],"p_exact":0.984375,"p_magnitude":0.73,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2025-03-10","move":-0.026636,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":12,"post_news_trades":6,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-03","move":-0.049281,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":10,"post_news_trades":10,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-04","move":-0.058543,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":10,"post_news_trades":7,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-09","move":0.105019,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":10,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-10","move":-0.043819,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":10,"post_news_trades":3,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2026-06-05","move":-0.025809,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"22 of 237 trades (9.3%) were disclosed late; median lag 27 days. Another 1 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.093, Wilson [0.066, 0.129]; 90th percentile lag 44 days; longest 73 days. Late-minus-timely signed CAR 0.0114, p = 0.272.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.092827,"ci":[0.066252,0.128593],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.272,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.553,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.097046,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":237,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":22,"late_from_trade":23,"excused_by_notification":1,"late_share":0.092827,"late_ci":[0.066252,0.128593],"median_lag":27,"p90_lag":44,"max_lag":73,"filings":21,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":13,"timely_priced":153,"late_priced_dates":10,"late_minus_timely_car":0.011374,"late_minus_timely_ci":[-0.024425,0.041037],"late_minus_timely_p":0.272}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 23% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBA, HSBU; jurisdiction sectors Financials, Real Estate. Dollar share 0.007 (identified set [0.002, 0.021], bootstrap 0.001-0.018); benchmarks S&P 500 0.212, congressional peers 0.232.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.224692,"ci":[-0.230841,-0.213324],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":164,"in_jurisdiction_trades":3,"share":0.006863,"share_bounds":[0.002274,0.020901],"share_ci":[0.000714,0.018231],"benchmark_sp500":0.211881,"benchmark_peers":0.231555,"excess":-0.224692,"excess_ci":[-0.230841,-0.213324],"committees":["HSBA","HSBU"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Financials","Real Estate"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 163 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 163 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"n_other":163,"events":2150}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2026-04-08 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2026-04-08","changepoint_LR":30.589992,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.371951,"tradeday_rate_after":0.064516}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 95% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0290, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.029033,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.947761,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"32 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 20 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.62, Clopper-Pearson [0.46, 0.77], exact one-sided p = 0.108; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.625,"ci":[0.464361,0.767378],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.107664,"p_holm":0.861309,"q_bh":0.956171,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":32,"hits":20,"hit_rate":0.625,"ci":[0.464361,0.767378],"priced":166,"share_followed":0.192771}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"16% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 9%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.155; circular-shift null mean 0.089, 95th pct 0.146, p = 0.060. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0477, p = 0.225.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.15544,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.224653,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.15544,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":193,"cotraded_share":0.15544,"null_mean":0.089444,"null_p95":0.146114,"excess_p":0.06,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.15544,"excess_p_wo_top":0.02,"cotraded_car":0.047669,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.08088,0.176217],"cotraded_car_p":0.224653}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"48 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +3.45% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0345 [-0.0720, 0.1410], t_KP = 0.33, over 45 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +0.83% (win rate 57%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.034503,"ci":[-0.072039,0.141044],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.372711,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":48,"share_in_round_trips":0.497409,"priced":44,"realized_mean":0.008275,"realized_win_rate":0.568182,"opening_car":0.034503,"ci":[-0.072039,0.141044],"p":0.372711,"openings_priced":45}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2025-03-10","event_date":"2025-03-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.66,"trade":"12 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-03","event_date":"2025-04-03","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.93,"trade":"10 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-04","event_date":"2025-04-04","direction":"buy","move_pct":-5.85,"trade":"10 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-09","event_date":"2025-04-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":10.5,"trade":"10 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-10","event_date":"2025-04-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.38,"trade":"10 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2026-06-05","event_date":"2026-06-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.58,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}