{"id":"M001244","trades":[{"date":"2025-01-21","filed":"2025-02-21","ticker":"OKTA","issuer":"OKTA","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250221-005","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.06909},{"date":"2025-01-22","filed":"2025-02-21","ticker":"HWM","issuer":"HWM","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250221-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.003426},{"date":"2025-01-22","filed":"2025-02-21","ticker":"AMAT","issuer":"AMAT","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250221-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.078201},{"date":"2025-01-22","filed":"2025-02-21","ticker":"MU","issuer":"MU","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250221-004","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.171348},{"date":"2025-01-27","filed":"2025-02-21","ticker":"AMAT","issuer":"AMAT","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250221-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.041635},{"date":"2025-02-20","filed":"2025-03-22","ticker":"ADCT","issuer":"ADCT","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250322-008","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.016694},{"date":"2025-02-20","filed":"2025-03-22","ticker":"DM","issuer":"DM","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250322-009","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2025-02-20","filed":"2025-03-22","ticker":"KPTI","issuer":"KPTI","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250322-010","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.042131},{"date":"2025-02-24","filed":"2025-03-22","ticker":"ASML","issuer":"ASML","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250322-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014199},{"date":"2025-02-24","filed":"2025-03-22","ticker":"HWM","issuer":"HWM","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250322-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.035092},{"date":"2025-02-24","filed":"2025-03-22","ticker":"GENI","issuer":"GENI","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250322-004","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004218},{"date":"2025-02-24","filed":"2025-03-22","ticker":"SMCI","issuer":"SMCI","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250322-005","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.236623},{"date":"2025-02-24","filed":"2025-03-22","ticker":"AMD","issuer":"AMD","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250322-006","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.031869},{"date":"2025-02-24","filed":"2025-03-22","ticker":"SMCI","issuer":"SMCI","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250322-007","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.236623},{"date":"2025-03-06","filed":"2025-03-22","ticker":"LLY","issuer":"LLY","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250322-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.093747},{"date":"2025-03-20","filed":"2025-04-20","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVDA","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250420-004","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.075749},{"date":"2025-03-21","filed":"2025-04-20","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVDA","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250420-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.028393},{"date":"2025-03-24","filed":"2025-04-20","ticker":"SMCI","issuer":"SMCI","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250420-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.101521},{"date":"2025-03-25","filed":"2025-04-20","ticker":"SMCI","issuer":"SMCI","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250420-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.054553},{"date":"2025-04-04","filed":"2025-05-13","ticker":"ARCC","issuer":"ARCC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250513-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.02529},{"date":"2025-04-04","filed":"2025-05-13","ticker":"JPM","issuer":"JPM","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250513-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.063643},{"date":"2025-04-04","filed":"2025-05-13","ticker":"HWM","issuer":"HWM","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250513-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.016824},{"date":"2025-04-04","filed":"2025-05-13","ticker":"ET","issuer":"ET","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"SQM001244-20250513-004","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.032826}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17% of 23 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.174, 90% Wilson [0.081, 0.336]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = -0.05 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.173913,"ci":[0.080566,0.335902],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"lowest_band_share":0.173913,"lowest_band_ci":[0.080566,0.335902],"share_over_50k":0.521739,"max_z":0.674491,"size_gap":-0.046788,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":3,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"16 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 8 and trading spans 39% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.124 (identified set [0.090, 0.203]); trade-count HHI 0.085 vs. 95th percentile 0.055 of 23 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.39 [0.28, 0.54]. Top three issuers (AMAT, SMCI, HWM) carry at least 27% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":8.037769,"ci":[4.916471,11.148869],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"issuers":16,"hhi_mid":0.124413,"hhi_bounds":[0.089695,0.203398],"n_eff":8.037769,"hhi_count":0.085066,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.05482,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.389923,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.27985,0.54224],"top3_share_lower":0.274242,"top3":["AMAT","SMCI","HWM"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"36% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 13.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.5%).","detail":"Batch-day share 4/11, Wilson [0.18, 0.61]; index of dispersion 2.98 (chi-square p = 2.41e-12); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.130 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.055, p = 0.160.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.363636,"ci":[0.175137,0.605974],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.16,"p_holm":0.8,"q_bh":0.572,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"trade_days":11,"batch_share_trades":0.695652,"batch_day_share":0.363636,"batch_day_ci":[0.175137,0.605974],"dispersion_index":2.97703,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.130435,"proximity_null_mean":0.054718,"proximity_null_p95":0.130435,"proximity_p":0.16,"proximity_nonroutine":0.130435,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 22 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.60% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0260; 90% KP interval [-0.0472, 0.0992]; t_BMP = 0.62, r-bar = 0.077, t_KP = 0.37, Patell Z = 0.61, Corrado Z = 1.36. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0122, 0.0593]. Calendar-time alpha 27.25%/yr (NW t = 0.58, 73 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.025975,"ci":[-0.047212,0.099161],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.358649,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001486},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.00194},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.002681},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.059274},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.272511}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":22,"theta":0.025975,"ci":[-0.047212,0.099161],"p":0.358649,"t_kp":0.36699,"rbar":0.07707,"se_cs":0.025251,"se_kp":0.042532,"t_cs":1.028655,"t_bmp":0.618149,"patell_z":0.606935,"corrado_z":1.355518,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.012154,0.059274],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.001081,"se":0.00185,"days":73,"t":0.584603,"p_one_sided":0.279407},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.002102,0.004264],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":22,"theta":0.001486,"ci":[-0.05777,0.060743],"p":0.763434,"t_kp":-0.73054,"rbar":0.07707,"se_cs":0.020445,"se_kp":0.034437,"t_cs":0.072705,"t_bmp":-1.230504,"patell_z":-1.541867,"corrado_z":-1.379365},"21":{"n":22,"theta":0.025975,"ci":[-0.047212,0.099161],"p":0.358649,"t_kp":0.36699,"rbar":0.07707,"se_cs":0.025251,"se_kp":0.042532,"t_cs":1.028655,"t_bmp":0.618149,"patell_z":0.606935,"corrado_z":1.355518},"63":{"n":22,"theta":-0.00194,"ci":[-0.145533,0.141654],"p":0.441582,"t_kp":0.148758,"rbar":0.07707,"se_cs":0.049543,"se_kp":0.083449,"t_cs":-0.039152,"t_bmp":0.250565,"patell_z":0.210394,"corrado_z":1.234893}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.33, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.02, 0.86]; exact one-sided p = 0.875; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.493. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.333333,"ci":[0.016952,0.86465],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":3,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.333333,"ci":[0.016952,0.86465],"p_exact":0.875,"p_magnitude":0.4932,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2025-03-10","move":-0.026636,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-09","move":0.105019,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-10","move":-0.043819,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 23 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 30 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.105]; 90th percentile lag 39 days; longest 39 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.105251],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.105251],"median_lag":30,"p90_lag":39,"max_lag":39,"filings":4,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":22,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"22% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 22% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees JSEC, SPAG, SSAS, SSGA, SSHR, SSJU; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Broadline Retail, Health Care, Human Resource & Employment Services, IT Consulting & Other Services, Interactive Media & Services, Managed Health Care, Pharmaceuticals, Systems Software. Dollar share 0.216 (identified set [0.102, 0.406], bootstrap 0.112-0.548); benchmarks S&P 500 0.182, congressional peers 0.223.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.006832,"ci":[-0.111055,0.325424],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":21,"in_jurisdiction_trades":6,"share":0.216072,"share_bounds":[0.101785,0.405815],"share_ci":[0.111848,0.548327],"benchmark_sp500":0.182178,"benchmark_peers":0.222903,"excess":-0.006832,"excess_ci":[-0.111055,0.325424],"committees":["JSEC","SPAG","SSAS","SSGA","SSHR","SSJU"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Broadline Retail","Health Care","Human Resource & Employment Services","IT Consulting & Other Services","Interactive Media & Services","Managed Health Care","Pharmaceuticals","Systems Software"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"4 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 18 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"4 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 18 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":4,"n_other":18,"events":6409}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2025-01-23 (permutation p = 0.470).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2025-01-23","changepoint_LR":3.431608,"changepoint_p":0.47,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.173077}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 93% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0260, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.025975,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.925373,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson [0.10, 0.90], exact one-sided p = 0.688; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.097611,0.902389],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.6875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":4,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.097611,0.902389],"priced":22,"share_followed":0.181818}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"9% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 21%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.087; circular-shift null mean 0.211, 95th pct 0.348, p = 0.980.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.086957,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.086957,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"cotraded_share":0.086957,"null_mean":0.210804,"null_p95":0.347826,"excess_p":0.98,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.086957,"excess_p_wo_top":0.92}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"Only 0 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","detail":"Only 0 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"owner_unknown":23}},{"id":"T15","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 round trips but fewer than three priced.","detail":"2 round trips but fewer than three priced.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":2,"share_in_round_trips":0.173913}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2025-03-10","event_date":"2025-03-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.66,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-09","event_date":"2025-04-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":10.5,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-10","event_date":"2025-04-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.38,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}